NFL Week 4 has arrived, and I have NFL player props to target for the fourth NFL Sunday of the season.
Let's dive right into my NFL player props for Week 4, which include picks for Sam Darnold, Michael Pittman Jr., Garrett Wilson and more. Keep tabs on this story as I continue to add more NFL Week 4 prop picks.
Sean Koerner's NFL Player Props Week 4
- QB Sam Darnold (Vikings) Over 30.5 Pass Attempts (-128; FanDuel)
- WR Michael Pittman Jr. (Colts) Under 4.5 Receptions (-125; DraftKings)
- WR Trey Palmer (Buccaneers) Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-115; DraftKings)
- WR Garrett Wilson (Jets) Under 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110; DraftKings)
- WR Greg Dortch (Cardinals) Over 3.5 Receptions (-125; ESPN Bet)
Vikings vs Packers Player Props: Sam Darnold to Air It Out?
Sam Darnold has stayed under this number in all three games (24, 26, 28).
You wouldn’t know it just by looking at those attempt numbers that the Vikings have been fairly pass heavy this season. They have been top five in pass rate in neutral-game situations and have around a +7% pass rate over expected (PROE) when the game is close.
However, they are 3-0 and have by far the highest time of possession with the lead, and lowest TOP when trailing. A big part of that has been just how good the Vikings defense has been under Brian Flores.
That could continue this week, but Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love are very familiar with Flores' scheme and probably have more answers than other teams.
The Vikings are 3-point dogs at Green Bay this week, which means we could see the them in a neutral/trailing game script for all 60 minutes, which would elevate Darnold’s dropback rate. Darnold should be getting WR Jordan Addison back this week, which should help the passing attack
Darnold is also dealing with a knee injury that could limit his mobility and scrambling rate, and he might be more likely to throw the ball away at times (great for this market). I'm projecting Darnold closer to 33 pass attempts.
I prefer to bet over 30.5 at -128 (projecting closer to -170) but I still show value at over 31.5 at -105 as well (projecting closer to -145).
Steelers vs Colts Player Props: Few Looks to Michael Pittman Jr.
I have always said that Anthony Richardson isn’t a great quarterback for Michael Pittman Jr.
Pittman is a very good possession receiver who banks on high volume. That’s not the case with Richardson as he usually has one of the lowest completion props every week (15.5 this week).
The Colts have a run-heavy offense and when Richardson does throw, it’s typically low percentage targets downfield. When Richardson faces pressure, he tends to throw downfield even more, which means fewer targets for Pittman.
The Steelers rank fifth in pressure rate and get to face a Colts offensive line that's dealing with injuries as Ryan Kelly and Braden Smith are both questionable.
Pittman also might face off against Joey Porter Jr., who has only allowed a target on 7% of coverage snaps — the third-lowest mark out of 70 CBs.
Fellow WR Josh Downs made his season debut last week and drew a target on 31% of his routes. I expect his playing time to go up this week.
I'm projecting Pittman closer to 4 receptions and a fair price closer to -160.
Buccaneers vs Eagles Player Props: Opportunity for Trey Palmer
Jalen McMillan beat out Trey Palmer for the No. 3 WR role to open the season, but the rookie is doubtful to play on Sunday due to a hamstring injury. I expect Palmer to take over the third WR duties this week, which was his role last season.
We could see Sterling Shepard also mix in, but with the Bucs using Chris Godwin more in the slot, I think we should see Palmer run a route on around 60% of Baker Mayfield’s dropbacks.
With both Rachaad White and Bucky Irving questionable this week, we could see Tampa Bay be a bit more pass heavy.
I'm projecting Palmer’s median closer to 22.5 yards with around a 60% chance he clears 14.5.
Broncos vs Jets Player Props: Garrett Wilson Takes on Patrick Surtain
Broncos CB Patrick Surtain has had no issues shutting down No. 1 wide receivers this season:
- DK Metcalf: 3/29/0
- George Pickens: 2/29/0
- Mike Evans: 2/17/0
Garrett Wilson is the clear No. 1 receiver on the Jets, so he’s almost certainly going to be lined up across from Surtain on most of his routes. I expect Aaron Rodgers to lean on Breece Hall, Tyler Conklin and Allen Lazard more as a result.
This is also a week where we may see Mike Williams start to see an uptick in playing time and targets as the Jets have been easing him back into action after the ACL tear he suffered last season.
I think this is a great spot to fade Wilson’s receiving yards prop as I’m projecting his median closer to 51.5 and around a 60% chance he stays under 57.5.
Commanders vs Cardinals Player Props: Greg Dortch Could Feast
The Commanders have a defense we like attacking when it comes to passing and receiving props. The Cardinals should be able to up plenty of points in this matchup and force a shootout.
I’ve been saying this ever since the projections pod on Tuesday, but Greg Dortch is popping in my model with Trey McBride ruled out with a concussion.
Not only should Dortch see a slight boost in playing time — he ran a route on 94% of dropbacks after McBride left the game last week — but he should also absorb some of the targets that would normally go to the star tight end.
I’m expecting most of Dortch's targets to be underneath, so I prefer his receptions over his yardage prop. I'm projecting him closer to 4.3 receptions and closer to -170 fair price.
