This file will be updated throughout Friday and Saturday with all of my NFL player props for Week 6, so be sure to bookmark it and check back periodically.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
Under 28.5 Receiving Yards (-110, DraftKings)
Westbrook-Ikhine has cleared this in two of five games this season, and one of those was in Week 4 when DeAndre Hopkins was limited due to an ankle injury. Hopkins is over that and appears to be close to 100% after a season-high 97% snap rate last week.
The Titans' passing attack flows through Hopkins, Chigoziem Okonkwo and Tyjae Spears right now. With Treylon Burks out again this week, Westbrook-Ikhine should be Ryan Tannehill's No. 4 target against the Ravens.
However, Kyle Phillips returned to limited action last week and ran a route on 38% of Tannehill's dropbacks. He could see his usage increase this week, and those snaps would come at Westbrook-Ikhine's expense.
Westbrook-Ikhine already has a low weekly floor, but Phillips' return will make it tougher for him to clear this number.
I'm projecting Westbrook-Ikhine's median closer to 22.5 with a 62% chance to stay under 28.5 receiving yards.
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Alexander Mattison
Longest Rush Under 14.5 (-110, DraftKings)
Mattison is a grinder. He’s averaged 4.3 yards per rush despite only having two runs that have cleared this number all season (15 & 17 yards). Last season, he only cleared this once (on a 15-yard rush).
I’m projecting Mattison for 13.7 rush attempts while the current market has him at 12.5. Thus, I’m more bullish than the market on his potential workload and still showing a ton of value on this under.
There is a chance Cam Akers gets the hot hand in this game and limits Mattison’s early down work, so he has a lower floor than usual with actual competition for touches.
The main concern is that the Bears rush defense ranks 20th in DVOA against the run. They’ve struggled more with speedy, home-run hitter types like Aaron Jones (9/41/1), Isiah Pacheco (16/62/1) and Jaleel McLaughlin (7/72/0). However, they have contained early down plodders like Mattison so far – AJ Dillon (13/19/0) and Brian Robinson (6/10/0).
The Bears have a linebacker duo in Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards who can take care of Mattison if he gets to the next level. Edwards has been amazing in run defense, ranking third among LBs in run tackles and fourth in stop%. He will be key in preventing Mattison from clearing this number.
Safety Jaquan Brisker has been one of the better run defenders at his position and can help prevent Mattison from ripping off a 15+ yard run as well.
I’m projecting Mattison with a 67% chance of staying under this number.
Jahan Dotson
Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-115, BetMGM)
Dotson is off to a disappointing start to the season, but now might be a great time to buy low.
Dotson has been dealing with an ankle injury the past few weeks, but he made it through Week 5 without a setback and had the mini-bye week after Thursday Night Football to get even closer to 100%. We should see his routes run rate trend up from the 75% range to around 90%.
Dotson has only seen a target on 13.4% of his routes. While that has been a concern, a player as talented as Dotson is much more likely to see his target rate rise than stay in that range.
He’s also due for some positive catch percentage regression. Dotson has only caught 63% of his targets, but his expected catch rate is closer to 67%. It could be even higher considering Sam Howell has a completion rate of 4.6% over expectation.
Howell also led the league in dropbacks through five games. With Washington being such a pass-heavy offense, it’ll only be a matter of time before a WR as talented as Dotson breaks out of his slump. We might be looking back and laughing at the fact his prop ended up nearly getting into the high 20s.
I'm projecting Dotson's median closer to 38.5 with a 61% chance of clearing 30.5.
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Jonathan Mingo
Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)
Before the season, I had mentioned the Bryce Young-Mingo connection could take several games to finally hit its stride. Last week, we started to see the two have much better chemistry and Mingo went for 5/48/0.
This still sets up as a good time to buy low. Mingo has been targeted on 23% of his routes over the last three games, but he has only caught 52% of his targets on the season.
With an average depth of target of 11 yards, we should expect Mingo to have a catch rate closer to 63-65% moving forward. He'll also likely become more efficient after the catch. He's averaging just 2.1 after the catch, but his YAC ability was one of his selling points entering the draft.
This week will also likely feature a pass-heavy, trailing game script for the Panthers. It’s easy to get complacent and just assume the next 12 weeks will just mirror the first five weeks. However, this is a good time to invest in a rookie QB/WR that should only get better over time.
I’m projecting Mingo's median closer to 39.5 with a 62% chance to clear this number.
Jerome Ford
Under 11.5 Rush Attempts (-120, BetMGM)
In Week 4, Ford started to concede some of his early-down work to Kareem Hunt and Pierre Strong Jr. Coming out of the Browns' Week 5 bye, we might see Hunt’s role expand considering he’s had time to get his conditioning back, while Strong Jr. may be able to see more touches considering he has played well in limited action.
More importantly, both Hunt and Strong started to take over most of the short-yardage work. Those touches are extremely important in the rush attempt market. Ford continued to dominate the passing down work. The Browns may use dump-offs to Ford this week as an extension of the run game against a stingy 49ers defense.
As 10-point underdogs, the Browns will likely have to abandon the run at some point. This is a matchup where the overall play volume will be lower for both sides.
I’m projecting Ford closer to 10-10.5 rush attempts, but there are a handful of various factors that could cause him to have even fewer.
Every attempt in these markets is massive. I have him with about an 11% chance to have 11 exactly and a 63% chance to stay under 11.5. I'd bet this down to -145.
Joe Mixon
Over 15.5 Rush Attempts (-115, BetMGM)
The Bengals are a pass-heavy offense with the third-highest pass rate over expectation, but Mixon dominates the backfield touches.
This week, Cincinnati faces a Seahawks team that has allowed a league-high 73 plays per game this season. Seattle always ranks near the top in terms of plays per game allowed — 2022 (third most), 2021 (most) and 2020 (most). Therefore, we should expect the Bengals to see their play volume elevated a bit this week, giving Mixon a high floor in this market.
I have Mixon projected closer to 17 rush attempts and a 63% chance to clear this number.
Michael Mayer
Under 16.5 Receiving Yards (-110, DraftKings)
After catching just one pass for two yards in his first four games, Mayer had the best game of his career against the Packers (2/39/0).
While we have to be careful fading a talented rookie tight end who could be in the middle of a breakout, I don’t think we are quite there yet.
Mayer had a higher routes run rate (46%) than Austin Hooper (34%) for the first time this season. But it was Hooper who played more in passing situations as Mayer is the better run blocker.
I won’t be surprised if Mayer eventually leapfrogs Hooper as the lead TE as soon as this week, but it’s not a guarantee based on last week’s underlying usage. Mayer just happened to be on the field more when Vegas called a pass play.
The high target rate (19% TPRR) came in a game where Davante Adams only saw four targets.
I’m projecting Mayer’s median closer to 11.5 and a 63% chance he stays under 16.5.
Michael Wilson
Longest Reception Over 16.5 Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Wilson has established himself as the Cardinals' No. 2 receiver in his rookie season. He has six receptions in five games that have cleared this number, and his underlying usage is the ideal blend to beat this specific market.
Wilson's average depth of target has been 13.6 yards down the field, and he has an expected 4.1 yards after the catch, according to NextGenStats. That means he's going to be a threat to go over this total on nearly every reception. I'm in line with the market that he'll get about three receptions here, which gives him three decent shots at clearing this total.
Wilson has also thrived against zone coverage. He's yet to catch a pass against man coverage (19 total pass plays), while his 2.93 yards per route run against zone would rank ninth among qualified wide receivers. The Rams use zone coverage at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL.
I'm projecting Wilson's median closer to 18.5 with a 62% chance to clear this number.
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Cade Otton
Longest Reception Under 13.5 Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Only one of Otton's 12 receptions this season has cleared this number, and that was a 16-yard catch. That's an 8% rate of clearing this number. I expect his rate to be closer to 17% moving forward, but I'm still showing value on his under here.
There's a chance I'm being too bullish with his 17% rate going forward, considering his average depth of target is 4.1 and his expected yards after the catch are 2.9. That tells me the Buccaneers aren't scheming up Otton to get many gains of 14 or more yards and that he's more of a chain-mover.
I'm projecting Otton's median closer to 11.5 yards in this market with a 61% chance to stay under 13.5.
