NFL Week 6 has arrived, and I have NFL player props to target for the sixth NFL Sunday of the season.
Let's dive right into my NFL player props for Week 6, which include picks for Trevor Lawrence, Spencer Rattler and more. Keep tabs on this story as I continue to add more NFL Week 6 prop picks.
Sean Koerner's NFL Player Props Week 6
- QB Trevor Lawrence Under 21.5 Pass Completions (-110; DraftKings)
- QB Spencer Rattler Under 187.5 Pass Yards (-113; FanDuel)
- TE Zach Ertz Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-113; FanDuel)
- WR Marvin Harrison Jr. Under 4.5 Receptions (-114; FanDuel)
- WR Calvin Ridley Under 3.5 Receptions (-114; FanDuel)
Jaguars vs Bears Player Props: Trevor Lawrence Pass Completions
Last week was the first time this season Lawrence went over this number — going 28-for-34 — and it was against the Colts, who have allowed four out of the five QBs they've faced to clear this. The only one who didn’t was Malik Willis in his first start for the Packers when they ran the ball like 50 times.
The Bears will be a tougher test for Lawrence. The only QB who has cleared 21.5 completions against them was CJ Stroud.
Chicago's had a run-funnel defense this year, ranking second in DVOA against the pass and 30th against the run.
I expect the Jags to lean on the run here, especially with Tank Bigsby playing like one of the best “backups” in the league in what's been a breakout sophomore season.
Two underlying factors make it tough for Lawrence to clear a number like this:
- He throws the ball downfield at the four-highest rate. That means he’s going to have a lower completion percentage, but when he does complete passes, they will gain more yards (as he has deep threats in Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis). Long passes that are completed downfield usually help a QB stay under their completion prop.
- The Jaguars pass at a rate 13% lower than expected after getting a first down via a pass. If you think about it, this can really lower his potential ceiling considering that if he does complete a pass for a first down, it tends to lead to 1-2 run plays after it.
Lawrence has also only scrambled on 3% of his dropbacks (he was closer to a 6.5% scramble rate last year). Assuming he scrambles a bit more going forward, that lowers his chances of clearing this.
I have Lawrence closer to 20 completions with around a 61% chance to stay under 21.5.
Buccaneers vs Saints Player Props: Spencer Rattler Pass Yards
Rattler draws the start for the injured Derek Carr on Sunday. However, I expect him to have a fairly short leash — it's not out of the question the Saints turn to Jake Haener if Rattler struggles.
This is another one of those passing yard props where we could see the under hit regardless of game script.
I imagine the Saints want to lean on their run game as much as possible to take pressure off Rattler. This could play out similarly to my play on taking the under on Malik Willis' passing yards in Week 2, when the Packers got out to an early lead and Willis only had to throw 14 times, accumulating just 122 yards.
However, if the Saints end up in a pass-heavy and trailing game script and Rattler isn't playing well, we could see Haener substitute in — this is how the Jacoby Brissett, Will Levis, Gardner Minshew unders hit for me in the last few weeks.
Bucs head coach Todd Bowles loves to blitz and we could see him dial it up against the rookie QB.
Rattler instead may end up tapping into his rushing upside here as he scrambled on 11% of his dropbacks in the preseason. That would only lower his potential to rack up passing yards.
I'm projecting Rattler closer to 178.5 passing yards with around a 60% chance to stay under — he has a very low floor considering either game script would likely help him stay under.
Commanders vs Ravens Player Props: Zach Ertz Receiving Yards
The Commanders are 6.5-point road 'dogs against the Ravens, which means we could see a pass-heavy game script for them.
Not only will the added pass volume help Ertz, but he should also see more playing time in a potential trailing script. He plays 78% of pass plays when leading — that figure jumps to 88% when the Commanders are trailing. Ertz leads the team in targets (eight) when trailing.
That’s because they tend to use 11 personnel more when trailing and he’s the main TE they use in that formation
The Ravens have allowed six tight ends to clear this in just five games this season, so this is a great spot to invest in Ertz.
I'm projecting him closer to 33.5 yards with around a 62% chance to clear 27.5.
Cardinals vs Packers Player Props: Marvin Harrison Jr. Receptions
For as talented as Harrison is, this is a market and number that is tough for him to clear.
The Cardinals are run-heavy team — their -7.2% PROE ranks 26th and Kyler Murray's propensity to scramble leads to even fewer pass attempts.
Harrison has drawn a target on 22.5% of his routes, which is solid, but he tends to see low% targets downfield (15.1 aDot) and his expected catch rate is just 50.9%.
Jaire Alexander (groin) might return for the Packers this week, which would make this matchup even tougher for Harrison.
On the weather front, we could see some rain/showers in this game, which means we could see a few more rush attempts and more targets underneath for James Conner/Greg Dortch/Trey McBride.
I’m projecting Harrison closer to 4.2 receptions with around a 61% chance to stay under 4.5.
Colts vs Titans Player Props: Calvin Ridley Receptions
Similar to Harrison, Ridley offers a ton of upside in the receiving yards market but has a lower floor when it comes to receptions.
The Titans will likely try to lean on the run as much as possible to prevent Will Levis from committing a costly turnover; they should be able to get away with that game plan against the Colts.
After a hot start over the first two games, Ridley has only seen a target on 10% of his routes over the last two games. We saw him trend down as the season went on last season for the Jaguars, which is a concern.
But this likely has to do with DeAndre Hopkins seeing his usage go up over the last two games, with his early season knee injury appearing to be a thing of the past. We’ve also seen Tyjae Spears' and Josh Whyle’s target shares increase the last couple weeks as I think the Titans are trying to get Levis some higher% looks.
Ridley still profiles as their downfield threat — he has an aDot of 18.4 and an expected catch rate of just 55%. Combine that with Levis not being very accurate and it makes it tougher for Ridley to consistently clear 3.5 catches.
I’m projecting him closer to 3.2 receptions with around a 60% chance of staying under 3.5.
