Kareem Hunt
ATD +170 (FanDuel)
We cashed on Kareem Hunt last week, and we’re going back to the well in Week 6.
Hunt, despite technically being the Browns’ backup RB, got 11 carries last week, three of which came in the red zone. He found paydirt on a two-yard run.
Hunt now has 11 red-zone carries this season, which are fourth in the NFL. Also, he has four red-zone targets, while Chubb has none.
The only players with more red-zone carries this season than Hunt are Chubb, Jalen Hurts and Joe Mixon. Those three players all have minus odds to find the end zone in Week 6.
The Patriots blew out the Browns last season, but neither Chubb or Hunt played and Baker Mayfield left the game in the third quarter. This season, if the Patriots are playing with a lead again, we know Hunt will be getting the passing downs, adding to his chances of being on the field for a TD.
Quickslip: Kareem Hunt Anytime Touchdown (+170)
Adam Thielen
ATD +190 (FanDuel)
As much as I love Justin Jefferson, I’m riding with Adam Thielen this week.
Thielen had 24 touchdowns in the previous two seasons, but he only has one in five this year, which came in Week 3. He hasn’t gone three straight games without a touchdown since the end of the 2018 season.
Thielen is playing as many snaps as Jefferson, so that’s not an issue. He’s also averaging seven targets per game, so the volume is there. He also has eight red-zone targets, including at least one in all five games this season.
The Dolphins are in the bottom five in passing yards and have allowed eight passing touchdowns this season, five of which have been to opposing wide receivers.
These are the highest Thielen’s odds have been this season, and they never topped +150 last year. I’m willing to take a shot on them.
Add Adam Thielen to Your FanDuel Betslip
George Pickens
ATD +300 (FanDuel)
There are a lot of mouths to feed in the Steelers’ passing game, but Pickens has been moving up the ranks in the receivers room since he was drafted.
Pickens has played more than 70% of snaps in every game this season, and he has 13 targets from Kenny Pickett’s 1 1/2 halves of play this season.
This number doesn’t scream “huge value” since Pickens was +370 last week against the Bills, but it could be a similar game script this week. Pittsburgh is likely to be trailing again, which means Pickett could rack up the pass attempts against Tampa Bay.
Also, the Buccaneers secondary is banged up. Logan Ryan and Sean Bunting-Smith are unlikely to play, while Carlton Davis left last week’s Bucs win over the Falcons due to an injury.
Zay Jones
ATD +375 (bet365)
Zay Jones has become a forgotten soul in Jacksonville after signing with the Jags in the offseason. He missed Week 4 with an ankle injury but played more than 80% of snaps last week and still managed eight targets.
Jones gets a matchup here against a Colts defense that has been hit or miss against the pass this season. It held Patrick Mahomes to 17 points, but Christian Kirk did score twice against this unit earlier this season. Kirk has nine red-zone targets, but Jones is right behind him with eight.
This time, I expect the Colts to tighten their run defense on Jacksonville to make Trevor Lawrence beat them, thus increasing the chances of Jones scoring.
Patrick Mahomes
ATD +500 (FanDuel)
Mahomes has three red-zone carries this season but hasn’t found the end zone this season with his feet yet. He usually picks his spots for bigger games, though.
This matchup with the Bills will have a playoff-like atmosphere, and that’s where Mahomes shines. He has five rushing touchdowns in 11 career playoff games.
Also, Buffalo is a good matchup for Mahomes’ feet. In two matchups with the Bills last season, Mahomes ran 15 times for 130 yards.
The Bills have been tested once this season by a truly elite running QB, and that was Lamar Jackson. He ran 11 times for 73 yards.
