Every week during the NFL season, there’s an angle or matchup to be exploited, whether with the spread and total — or with player props. This applies to the Anytime Touchdown Scorers market.
Each week, I’ll go through every NFL game on the Sunday afternoon slate to identify the players you should consider betting in the ATD market and whether the odds are worth the investment.
Let's break down my player props in the touchdown scorer market for my NFL predictions in Week 6.
NFL Player Props: Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Odds are as of Friday night.
| Picks |
|---|
| Commanders vs. Ravens |
| Texans vs. Patriots |
| Browns vs. Eagles |
| Colts vs. Titans |
| Cardinals vs. Packers |
| Buccaneers vs. Saints |
| Steelers vs. Raiders |
| Chargers vs. Broncos |
| Lions vs. Cowboys |
| Falcons vs. Panthers |
Commanders vs. Ravens
This is arguably the game of the week, and the Ravens have touchdown edges across the board facing the Commanders defense. Take your pick. Washington ranks 24th in defensive DVOA stopping the run, and the only reason the Commanders haven’t given up more rushing TDs is they’ve been in a positive game script with a lead for the majority of their games. Then you look at their pass defense, which is the worst in the league with 11 passing TDs allowed. At first, I was going to suggest wide receiver Zay Flowers, but his odds are a bit steamed at +130 so let’s run it back with TE2 Isaiah Likely at +275. He’s quietly out-snapped TE1 Mark Andrews in each of the last three games, while having five red-zone targets this year to Andrews' one.
The Commanders passing attack could be in for extra work this week, especially if they’re trailing. The Ravens defense ranks 16th in defensive DVOA vs. the pass but that drops to 26th when facing WR1 and 22nd vs. tight ends. Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin continues to be on a rocket ship, but after getting +200 or better in each of the last three weeks, he might be steamed out now at +187. The other option is tight end Zach Ertz at +425, who is second on the Commanders in targets and receiving yards. The “safe” play is McLaurin but the “fun” play is Ertz.
Verdict: Isaiah Likely +275 | Terry McLaurin +187 | Zach Ertz +425
Texans vs. Patriots
Although the Patriots defense has been hit-or-miss through five games, I will give credit to their secondary for taking WR1s mostly out of the game plan. In each of the last two weeks, Tyreek Hill and Brandon Aiyuk failed to reach 80 yards receiving and were mostly held in check by Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez. That said, it’s not like teams can’t throw on New England because the Patriots still rank 25th in defensive DVOA vs. the pass.
Instead of looking at WR1 Stefon Diggs or WR2 Tank Dell, let’s take a flier on WR3 Xavier Hutchinson at +500. With the Nico Collins injury, all wide receivers will bump up in usage and Hutchinson played 72% of snaps after Collins got hurt. It’s pretty thin reasoning, but at those odds, I’d rather take a long shot than bank on Diggs and Dell, who are both less than +200 to score.
The Drake Maye era begins officially in New England, but man, the Pats picked a helluva game for his debut. The Patriots O-Line has allowed the third-most sacks already this season and now is facing a Texans defensive line with Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson. That sounds like a recipe for disaster and quick throws. If Bills QB Josh Allen had a horrific game against this defense, how do you think it will go for Maye?
My advice would be to sprinkle on both wide receiver Ja’Lynn Polk (+650) and Demario Douglas (+650) and pray one of them scores, but I’m likely avoiding Patriots TD props until better matchups come along — especially in a game with a total of 37.5.
Verdict: Sprinkle on Xavier Hutchinson +500
Browns vs. Eagles
I don’t know how you can watch the Browns offense and think Deshaun Watson isn’t the problem. He seems to be regressing each week and struggled to complete, especially after struggling to complete a pass against the laughable Commanders’ secondary, which has allowed the most touchdowns to wide receivers this year (11). I guess the only counterpoint is he can’t play any worse and it’s another decent matchup for the Browns passing game.
The Eagles, who rank 23rd in defensive DVOA vs. the pass and last vs. WR1, have already given up TDs to Mike Evans, Jayden Reed, Chris Olave and Drake London this year. That’s how insane this is right now that Cooper is +270 to score this week. Unless you want to take Watson again to rush for a TD at +500, just keep riding with Cooper. Just know the risk going in that Browns QB play might be the worst in the NFL.
No team needed a bye week more than the Eagles. If wide receiver A.J. Brown is back and healthy, this is an obvious choice because the defensive matchup fits his profile the best. The Browns play Man Coverage at a top-three rate in the NFL and that’s been Brown’s bread and butter. He led the Eagles with four touchdowns vs. Man defenses last year along with a ridiculous 34% target share. I think both Brown and Devonta Smith are decent bets to score this week.
Verdict: Amari Cooper +270 | A.J. Brown +165
Colts vs. Titans
If Anthony Richardson is starting, all Colts pass-catchers get marked down. I know he can throw a pretty deep ball and will occasionally show flashes of accuracy but he’s still a run-first QB with a solid option in RB Trey Sermon. The pass attempts will be few and far between. That’s why wide receivers like Michael Pittman (+230), Josh Downs (+240) and Alec Pierce (+280) and Adonai Mitchell (+280) still have similar odds because sportsbooks aren’t sure who’s week it will be. My instinct tells me to keep going with Downs because he’s seen the most targets (21) and looks in the red zone (four in the last two games) — but again, that was mostly with QB Joe Flacco. He was also nursing a toe injury through the week but did fully practice on Friday. As an alternative, if you can get Mitchell above +300 for an upside pick, I’d be OK with it. But Downs is my go-to, with Richardson or Flacco.
The Colts defense has two specific weaknesses at the moment: defending the pass and stopping tight ends. Indy ranks 24th in defensive DVOA vs. the pass along with ranking 30th vs. tight ends. They’ve allowed eight passing touchdowns (ranked 23rd) and 29th in passing yards allowed, with three of those touchdowns to tight ends. In theory, that should be TE1 Chig Okonkwo at +550 because he’s playing the most snaps and has seen the most targets for Titans tight ends vs. zone defense, which the Colts play at a top-five rate. If you want to go dumpster diving, I wouldn’t hate on a Josh Whyle TD either, but make sure you get at least +600.
Verdict: Josh Downs +240 | Sprinke on Chig Okonkwo +550
Cardinals vs. Packers
The Cardinals offense is always worth a watch each week because even in a matchup where they’re heavy underdogs, they still find ways to move the chains. One of those players that is a safety blanket for QB Kyler Murray is tight end Trey McBride, and he’s who I like to score at +275. McBride came back from a concussion in Week 5 and played 88% of snaps, and while he didn’t score a TD, he saw nine targets with two in the red zone. The Packers defense is middle of the pack for defensive DVOA vs. tight ends (17) but have allowed the fourth-most targets to tight ends and two touchdowns.
The Packers are a fun team to bet touchdowns with because they tend to spread it around and make it an equal opportunity offense. However, the problem with that lately for TD odds is sportsbooks now steam all the starters, so it's hard to determine which player has value. Both wide receivers Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are also expected back too, which further complicates things. I suppose you could throw a bet on Dontayvion Wicks again at +240 but even that feels flimsy because we expect his snaps to reduce to closer to 45% with those two back. It pains me to say it, but unless you want to take a dart throw on QB Jordan Love at +800, I’d avoid Packers TD props just for this game given the lack of value.
Verdict: Trey McBride +275 | Sprinkle on Jordan Love +800
Buccaneers vs. Saints
The first thing you notice when you look at the touchdown odds for this game is the sportsbooks didn’t really move their odds much with the Derek Carr news. Backup QB Spencer Rattler is expected to start, and while I’m not exactly the biggest Carr fan, guys like Chris Olave (+250) and Rashid Shaheed (+310) should have way higher odds than this. That’s the same odds they’d typically had with Carr in the first two games of the season. This is Rattler’s first start against a defense that is top five in passes defended. Until those odds shift, we need to pass entirely. You could talk me into tight end Juwan Johnson again, but only at +500 or better — especially since the Bucs are 26th in defensive DVOA vs. tight ends.
You know who else doesn’t rank well vs. tight ends this year? The Saints. Despite not allowing a TD yet to a tight end, they rank bottom five in receptions and yards to the position, which leads to tight end Cade Otton at +360. He’s gotten a red-zone target in each of the last four games and caught a TD on the Saints last year in New Orleans.
I know we usually bet Mike Evans TDs but the Saints have CB Marshon Lattimore back and they tend to get chippy, which could lead to ejection or injury. The Saints also rank No. 1 in defensive DVOA vs. WR1 this year and have only allowed one WR1 (CeeDee Lamb in Week 2) to score on them.
Verdict: Cade Otton +295 | Sprinkle on Juwan Johnson at +500 or better
Steelers vs. Raiders
If you had asked me before looking at the Week 6 totals which game had the lowest, this would’ve easily been my first pick. I was close! It’s the second lowest, with Chargers–Broncos having the one-point edge. That said, while I don’t expect a ton of touchdowns in this game, there’s still two players that stand out to me for value: Raiders wide receiver Tre Tucker at +380 along with Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth at +300.
For Tucker, it’s quite simple: If Davante Adams isn’t playing, Tucker’s stock is only going up. He has 20 targets in the last three games without Adams along with scoring a rushing TD and a receiving TD. He’s also playing over 80% of snaps, and while it isn’t easy to get a TD against this tough Steelers secondary, I trust the Raiders to find creative ways to get Tucker involved.
For Freiermuth, he’s another player in this Steelers offense that doesn’t quite get the shine but is an integral receiving option for QB Justin Fields given that wide receiver George Pickens is mostly blanketed by opposing secondaries. Even though Freiermuth only finished with three targets in the loss to the Cowboys, Pittsburgh designed a shovel-pass to get him in the end zone, similar to the play call from the Chiefs' Andy Reid and Travis Kelce. And for what it’s worth, the Raiders rank 31st in defensive DVOA vs. tight ends this year. If you want to keep riding with Fields, just make sure he’s over +200. But if Fields is throwing, Freiermuth is who I like to score.
Verdict: Tre Tucker +380 | Pat Freiermuth +380
Chargers vs. Broncos
Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton may only have one TD this year, but I give QB Bo Nix credit, he’s looking for him every time in the red zone. Sutton is tied for second in the NFL with eight red-zone targets and has 41 targets total, which is over twice the amount of the next receiver (Josh Reynolds, 19). I’d opt with Sutton since he’s +280, but if you wanted to take a swing on Reynolds at +600, that’s OK too because the Chargers rank 31st in DVOA to WR2 this year.
I know one thing: Don’t even bother betting a WR1 when they face the Broncos. All-Pro CB Patrick Surtain II has made mincemeat of his matchups this year with WR1s like Garrett Wilson, DK Metcalf, George Pickens, and Mike Evans combining for no touchdowns and only 12 catches for 118 yards total. That’s insane!
Looking at who got the Broncos this year for passing touchdowns (Chris Godwin, Darnell Washington, Brock Bowers, Zach Charbonnet), the most consistent theme is all lined up out of the slot. So, with no Chargers tight end really standing out, let’s go back to slot wide receiver Ladd McConkey. He likely won’t see the Surtain matchup and leads the team in targets. At +285, he’s who I’d go with given wide receiver Quentin Johnson may end up on a milk carton after matching up with Surtain.
Verdict: Courtland Sutton +280 | Ladd McConkey +285
Lions vs. Cowboys
I know the Cowboys snuffed out a lucky win in Pittsburgh in Week 5 but this one could be a slaughter. The Lions offensive strengths, like their power run game, play right into the Cowboys’ main defensive weaknesses. Dallas ranks 31st in defensive DVOA vs. the run and has given up the second-most rushing TDs. While the Cowboys have kind of held teams in check for passing yards, they’ve also allowed six receiving TDs. Basically, take your pick for the Detroit Lions to score, especially since they’ll be playing indoors where most of Jared Goff’s passing metrics tend to improve.
That being said, a wide receiver like Amon-Ra St. Brown (+115) is pretty steamed despite the Lions having a clear edge in the run game. Even tight end Sam LaPorta, who hasn’t scored yet this season, is still seeing odds at +220 despite only 14 targets through four games. If we’re betting a Lion, it has to be Jameson Williams at +200. The Cowboys rank fifth in defensive DVOA vs. WR1 while ranking 28th vs. WR2 and we’ve seen TDs allowed from Jerry Jeudy, Rashod Bateman, and Rashid Shaheed on this defense this year. If you prefer LaPorta because you think he's due, I honestly wouldn’t be mad at it. But Williams is the guy we need here.
Given the likely negative game script for the Cowboys, passing touchdowns are really all we’ll consider. I’ve taken tight end Jake Ferguson in each of the last two Dallas games, and while he got targets (14), none sniffed the end zone and he hasn’t seen a red-zone target since Week 1. This is alarming as both he and CeeDee Lamb finished in the top-five in that category last year.
If you want to take the wide receiver du jour of Jalen Tolbert at +270, that’s probably the best angle since he caught a TD last week and has three red-zone targets. I’m moving on from wide receiver Kavontae Turpin because he’s now down to +310 and he hasn’t played more than 29% of snaps in a game yet this season.
Verdict: Jameson Williams +200 | Jalen Tolbert +270
Falcons vs. Panthers
I was really looking forward to this game and betting a ton of touchdowns but I think sportsbooks know this too because almost everybody has steamed TD odds in this one. Falcons wide receivers like Drake London and Darnell Mooney have been routinely over +200 every week, but against this dreadful Panthers defense, the best you can get is +130 and +185, respectively.
While I do think you can’t go wrong with London in any matchup, my eyes are now drifting to the odd man out, wide receiver Ray-Ray McCloud III at +275. He’s played at least 95% of snaps in each of the last four games, with 24 targets in that span, and just came off an OT game vs. the Bucs in which he had nine targets.
The Panthers were a nice feel-good story for one week, but in the last two weeks their offense just can’t keep up with the leaky defense. As formidable as their Falcons secondary looks on paper, they’ve actually been getting tossed around by WR1 this year, with the top pass-catcher getting a TD in three of the last four games and ranking 22nd in defensive DVOA vs. WR1.
By default, we go back to Panthers wide receiver Diontae Johnson at +180 because he’s seen at least one red-zone target in every game and has 33 total targets since QB Andy Dalton has become the starter. It’s not pretty, but outside of Johnson, no other Panther is providing consistent play to warrant their current ATD odds.
Verdict: Ray-Ray McCloud III +275 | Diontae Johnson +180
