Here are all of my NFL player props for Week 7. We're back to focusing on unders this week after finding some lines that were there to be bet.
Nelson Agholor
Under 24.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Agholor has cleared this in four of six games this season, so I imagine most of the action has been on the over. I saw this open at 21.5 and have been waiting for it to be bet up.
Agholor stepped up as the Ravens' No. 2 receiver with Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham Jr. missing Weeks 3-4. With both back in action, he's seen a decrease in his routes run rate but is still operating as the No. 2 WR.
However, there's a chance that either Bateman or Beckham begin seeing an increase in playing time at Agholor's expense. I'm not saying Agholor deserves to take a backseat to either, but Bateman is a recent first-round pick and Beckham is being paid $15 million. The Ravens will likely want the two of them more involved down the stretch.
The duo has pushed Agholor out of two-receiver sets and could eat into his usage in 11 personnel. Agholor saw his playing time elevated last week because the Ravens used 22 personnel at the highest rate they have all season.
There's a very real chance that Agholor's routes run rate could fall below 55% for the first time since Week 2.
Agholor is also due for catch regression, as he's hauled in 80% of his targets this season with a 13.3 average depth of target. That's unsustainable, and we'd expected him to be in the 63% range with an aDot like that.
The high winds expected in Baltimore could also mean fewer targets down the field for someone like Agholor. Also, Lions safety Brian Branch is expected to return and will likely be tasked with covering Agholor in the slot. It's arguably the toughest matchup for a receiver when facing Detroit.
I have Agholor's median closer to 19.5 receiving yards and give him a 60% chance of staying under 24.5.
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Josh Jacobs
Longest Rush Under 16.5 Yards (-120)
Jacobs had a career year in 2022, but he has struggled so far on the ground this season at just 2.9 yards per carry. He only has two rushes that have cleared this number all season.
We can’t expect Jacobs to be this inefficient moving forward, and I’m using closer to a 3.8 yards per rush distribution for him in this week’s matchup against the Bears, who rank 30th in DVOA against the pass and 17th against the run. LB T.J. Edwards has been excellent against the run and will be key in preventing Jacobs from getting into the open field.
Jacobs has been more efficient in the passing game, and that’s where the Bears struggle against RBs. Seven RBs this season have three or more receptions in six games this year. I expect Brian Hoyer to lean on dump-offs to Jacobs here.
Jacobs should see 16-20 rush attempts here, but the Bears will be ready for them. Brian Hoyer under center means they can focus on trying to contain Jacobs.
I’m projecting his median closer to 14.5 with a 63% chance to stay under this number.
Allen Robinson
Longest Reception Under 14.5 Yards (-114)
Only one of Robinson's 17 receptions this season has cleared this number.
While his percentage of receptions that clear this number will surely increase as the season goes on, his opportunities are about to take a hit with Diontae Johnson returning to action.
Robinson will still see his fair share of snaps in the slot, but he’s going to be on the sidelines for most of the tw0-WR sets and when Calvin Austin comes in for his 11 personnel snaps.
Robinson has been held back in this market based on the type of targets he’s been getting in the slot. He has a lower-than-average depth of target of 6.5, but he’s also not being set up for many yards after the catch (1.9 expected YAC yards per catch according to NextGenStats). Think of that as offensive coordinator Matt Canada not scheming him up to pop off many big catch and runs. Robinson also isn’t as explosive as he is clearly past his prime.
The sweet spot for this market is the 8-17 yard range as I have about a 55% chance it ends up within that range. We are getting seven of those 10 key yardages in that range, which is why I’m showing around a 64% chance he stays under this number.
He has a much lower floor if Austin ends up with a larger role than expected with Johnson back, which is possible considering Pittsburgh had a Week 6 bye to get Austin, who is technically a rookie this season, more integrated into the offense.
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Keaontay Ingram
Under 36.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
In the first game without James Conner, the Cardinals opted to go with a three-way committee at running back. Ingram handled 50% of the early-down work with Damien Williams and Emari Demercado splitting the other 50%. Demercado handled most of the passing-down snaps.
Ingram has averaged 2.3 yards per carry on 49 career attempts. There's no guarantee that his early down usage will rise or even hold to last week’s levels. There's a chance that Williams and/or Demercado could see an increase in snaps this week.
This is also a brutal matchup for RBs. The Seahawks rank first in DVOA against the run this year, allowing a league-low 2.7 yards per attempt to running backs. A lot of that is due to Bobby Wagner’s return to Seattle.
I’m likely being too generous by assuming Ingram’s early down snap rate will continue to be in the 50% range while also having his yards per carry closer to 3.5. Despite what I would consider generous assumptions, I’m still showing Ingram staying under this number 63% of the time. He's the type of back who has a very low floor this week.
Noah Fant
Under 22.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Seattle has been using a three-way committee at TE this season. Noah Fant topped the TEs in routes run Weeks 1-3, but we’ve seen Colby Parkinson take those honors in Weeks 4-5. This could signal that Parkinson is emerging as the lead pass-catching TE for Seattle.
We also saw an uptick in usage for WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the Seahawks opted to use more 11 personnel. The trailing game script likely had a huge role in this but considering Seattle had its bye in Week 5, the sudden increase in 11 personnel could be an active decision to get their first-round pick on the field more going forward.
Also of note is that rookie RB Zach Charbonnet may miss this game, which would mean we see DeeJay Dallas get more snaps. Dallas has commanded a target on 25% of his routes, which means an increase in playing time for him could result in fewer targets for someone like Fant.
Fant has big-play potential, but with limited snaps and receptions prop around two, which I’m in line with, his median should be much lower than 22.5 receiving yards.
Fant is also due for some catch percentage regression as he’s caught 92% of his targets while having an average depth of target of 7.4. We would expect him to have a catch rate closer to 70-75% going forward.
I'm projecting him with a 63% chance to stay under 22.5 receiving yards.
Dontayvion Wicks
Under 0.5 Receptions (+165)
Wicks filled in nicely for Christian Watson earlier in the season, but Watson is now fully healthy. We saw Wicks' playing time plummet to a 18% routes run rate in Week 5.
Aaron Jones' return will likely make it that much tougher for Wicks to draw a target in his limited role. He also rarely gets a lay up target with an aDot of 12.4 yards.
I have him closer to a coin flip, so I love the +165 we are getting here. This is only a one-half unit play since this is a very volatile type of prop.
