NFL Week 7 has arrived, and I have NFL player props to target for the seventh NFL Sunday of the season.
Let's dive right into my NFL player props for Week 7, which include picks for Trevor Lawrence, Jared Goff and more. Keep tabs on this story as I continue to add more NFL Week 7 prop picks.
Sean Koerner's NFL Player Props Week 7
- Trevor Lawrence Under 234.5 Passing Yards
- Jared Goff Over 22.5 Completions
- Grant Calcaterra Over 23.5 Receiving Yards
Patriots vs Jaguars Player Props: Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards
I'm going back to the well here after losing on Lawrence to go under 21.5 pass completions last week. Once the Jaguars went down three scores and got into a pass-heavy game script, it was going to be tough for his unders to hit — as with most passing prop unders.
Despite the pass heavy game script last week, Lawrence barely cleared his completions and yardage props.
One of the key trends that continued was how run heavy the Jaguars have been after completing a pass for a first down. It’s once again why I like the under here.
I opted to pivot from Lawrence's completions to yards because with Evan Engram back, Lawrence is going to be throwing more high percentage throws at a higher rate than deeper ones. Brian Thomas Jr. will also likely be shadowed by Patriots standout corner Christian Gonzalez.
We could see the Jaguarsrs have a rare leading game script here considering they are 6-point favorites
I think we could see a much more conservative game plan as a result and I'm projecting Lawrence closer to 220.5 yards.
Lions vs Vikings Player Props: Jared Goff Pass Completions
I was pleasantly surprised to see Goff's completion prop number this low given the matchup. I’m guessing it hasn’t been bet up much considering he’s only cleared this mark in 1-of-5 games thus far — but this is the perfect spot for him to do so.
This could be a rare trailing game script for the Lions as they are 1.5-point underdogs. The Vikings have a very good defense, especially against the run. They love to blitz at a high rate but are prone to giving up completions underneath.
The Vikings have allowed four out of five teams to complete 23+ passes (Daniel Jones ended with 22 in Week 1).
This is a spot where I think Goff has a ton of upside in this market considering his completion percentage goes up (72%) against the blitz.
I'm projecting him closer to 24 with around a 60% chance to clear 22.5.
Eagles vs Giants Player Props: Grant Calcaterra Receiving Yards
Dallas Goedert is expected to miss Week 7 with a hamstring injury and I think Calcaterra will be nearly a 1-for-1 replacement.
We saw it last week when he ran a route on 89% of Jalen Hurts' dropbacks — pretty much every one after Goedert left the game. Ultimately, Calcaterra finished with a line of 4/67/0.
He’s always had a ton of upside despite being a sixth-round pick — the only reason he went that late in the draft was due to his concussion history.
While he’s not as good as Goedert or won’t see as much volume, it’s closer than people think so imagine if Goedert had a prop this low.
I'm projecting Calcaterra closer to 32.5 yards with around a 62% chance he clears.
