Every week during the NFL season, there’s an angle or matchup to be exploited, whether with the spread and total — or with player props. This also applies to the Anytime Touchdown Scorers market.
I go through every NFL game on Sunday afternoon throughout the season to identify the players you should consider betting in the TD Scorers market and whether the odds are worth the investment.
Let's break down my player props in the touchdown scorer market for my NFL props in Week 7.
NFL Player Props: Anytime Touchdown Scorers
| Picks |
|---|
| Dolphins vs. Colts |
| Seahawks vs. Falcons |
| Texans vs. Packers |
| Bengals vs. Browns |
| Eagles vs. Giants |
| Lions vs. Vikings |
| Titans vs. Bills |
| Panthers vs. Commanders |
| Raiders vs. Rams |
| Chiefs vs. 49ers |
Dolphins vs. Colts
As we approach another Colts game with Anthony Richardson and more subpar quarterback play, you can’t help but feel somewhat bummed this game doesn’t feature Joe Flacco. The Colts backup is tied for 13th amongst all QBs in TD passes (six) despite only playing 2.5 games.
T-Rich is the future for this team. But in the present, he is the definition of inaccuracy, while managing to connect on the occasional deep ball and using the running force of a tailback. Basically, the opposite of Flacco. So when Richardson starts, all passing TD potential goes out the window and each should be +300 or better. The only receiver I'd consider is WR3 Alec Pierce at +500 or better because the Dolphins rank in the bottom-five in defensive DVOA against the deep ball and leads the team in aDOT against both man and zone defenses.
After trashing Richardson, it’s not like you can look to the Dolphins side and be more encouraged. Tyler Huntley is just almost as allergic to throwing TD passes as T-Rich, but at least the Colts QB has some deep throws in his arsenal.
That pretty much eliminates WR Tyreek Hill (+190). So, the “safe” play is to take De’Von Achane at anything over +150, because he can be used in the passing game and he’s got 13 red-zone touches in five games. RB Raheem Mostert is back but that could actually help Achane, who has shown early in his career that he may not be a three-down back.
Verdict: De'Von Achane +150 | Sprinkle on Alec Pierce +500
Seahawks vs. Falcons
Another game with a total over 50, so all eyes will be on the running backs, but this looks like a spot for Jaxon Smith-Njigba to exploit. He’ll have a decent matchup against Falcons slot corner Dee Alford, who ranks in bottom-three in coverage grade according to PFF. JSN leads the team in red-zone targets (6) and tends to see more overall targets when the matchup allows.
At +200, he offers the best value for any Seahawks pass-catcher in this matchup. If you want to take DK Metcalf at +140, I wouldn’t hate it, because the Falcons rank 26th in defensive DVOA against WR1s, and he’s the only Seahawks WR to catch a TD against zone coverage this season, which the Falcons play at a top-three rate.
The Falcons pass-catchers' TD odds are starting to closely resemble how the Vikings looked with Kirk Cousins at QB. Drake London (+125) has assumed the Justin Jefferson role, Darnell Mooney (+175) is being priced like speedy WR2 Jordan Addison, while TE Kyle Pitts (+200) has TJ Hockenson’s price window around +200.
Seattle’s defense ranks in the bottom-7 in defensive DVOA against all pass-catchers (WR1, WR2, WR3, TE) except for running backs. It isn't sexy, but I think we need to keep going back to London because he’s seeing the most targets, and ranks fourth in the NFL in total red-zone targets (10).
Cousins is going to throw a lot, and while I considered WR3 Ray-Ray McCloud, he just hasn’t been seeing the same amount of red-zone work as his teammates.
Verdict: Jaxon Smith-Njigba +200 | Drake London +125
Texans vs. Packers
This is one of those games where you could talk yourself into nearly any TD angle, regardless of the odds. The problem is with a total of 47.5, you’d think there’d be more value near the top of the odds board, but the usual suspects like Jayden Reed, Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell or Josh Jacobs all have TD odds of +170 or less. This means we’ll likely need to go down the list and try to pick off some players with value that are still heavily involved in these two offenses.
Last week, we went with Cardinals TE Trey McBride, and while he responded with eight catches and 98 yards receiving, he didn’t sniff the end zone because the Cardinals got blown out. Still, that dropped the Packers from 17th to 23rd in defensive DVOA against TEs, and have allowed the third-most targets to the position.
This leads us to TE Dalton Schultz at +300. He’s playing over 85% of snaps and saw eight targets in Week 6. Keep riding TEs against this defense. The TDs will come.
Pour one out for WR Dontavion Wicks. It was a good run but he only played 17% of snaps in Week 6 with the WR trio of Reed, Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson all back. Doubs and Watson are mainly playing on the outside, while Reed will roam and lineup mostly in the slot.
With how successful the Texans have been playing zone coverages, that lines up for Reed to be unleashed, as he has an insane 4.22 yards per route run against zone. Reed’s price at +130 isn’t terrible given how electric he’s been, but I’d rather go back to Watson at +270.
Watson caught a TD in Week 6 after missing Week 5 with an injury, and with his high ADOT vs. Zone (23), he could be in line for a long TD after the Texans gave up two TDs to Drake Maye of 35+ yards or more.
Verdict: Dalton Schultz +300 | Christian Watson +270
Bengals vs. Browns
Not really sure what to take from the Bengals only putting up 17 points on the Giants defense, but now facing the Browns and their man coverage, WR Ja’Marr Chase (+110) and WR Tee Higgins (+150) could be in line for another big day.
The Browns play man defense at the highest rate in NFL, and Higgins has been “that guy” with the team-high in target share and Yards per Route Run (2.06) when facing man coverage.
Now, obviously Chase could have a big game too, considering they have similar metrics, but both of them are starting to be priced out with Higgins at +200 or better in each of the last two games.
Instead, I’ll be targeting Andrei Iosivas at +500. While he did most of his damage before Higgins was back in the lineup, he’s still playing over 70% of snaps in three games with Higgins in the fold. He also saw a red-zone target in Week 6 and leads the team in touchdowns against man defenses.
By default, I think we just have to take WR Jerry Jeudy at +340, but man, it feels gross. QB DeShaun Watson has done his receivers no favors this year with inaccuracy and bad throws, but in a game with a potentially negative game script for Cleveland, and no true WR1 in Amari Cooper, this is Jeudy’s role to grab.
I’d also strongly consider TE David Njoku if Jeudy grosses you out too much, since the Bengals rank 25th in defensive DVOA against TEs and are one of five NFL teams to allow three or more TDs to TEs this season.
Verdict: Andrei Iosivas +500 | Jerry Jeudy +340 | David Njoku +430
Eagles vs. Giants
If there’s one Eagle that loved to see the Giants on the schedule, it isn't RB Saquon Barkley, it's WR DeVonta Smith. He has had some of his best games against the G-Men throughout his career, with a TD in four of six games vs. NYG. He hasn’t had odds at +200 or better in any game this season and played 100% of snaps last week against the Browns. I like both Smith and A.J. Brown to be heavily involved, especially with Giants CB Adoree Jackson out, but if you are betting Brown, make sure to get +150 or better.
While I do expect Brown to be heavily involved, make sure to get +150 or better on Smith.
For the Giants, you want to look at pass-catchers that do well against man coverage, since the Eagles use it at a top-five rate. That means if WR Malik Nabers is back, he will be deployed early and often, especially since the Eagles rank last in defensive DVOA against WR1s.
I’d rather just go with WR Wandale Robinson (+310) as opposed to WR Darius Slayton (+350), given the former has two TDs against man defenses, and is second in target share. If you really want Slayton, it’s worth mentioning he scored a touchdowns against the Eagles in both games last season.
The only reason I’m down on Slayton is because he has similar odds to the previous two games with Nabers sidelined, when he should probably be closer to +400 if Nabers is active.
Verdict: DeVonta Smith +210 | Wan’Dale Robinson +310
Lions vs. Vikings
The old saying of “life is too short to bet the under” should apply to this game. Some sportsbooks have up to nine players with odds of +195 or less to score, implying that we could see a 60-point shootout.
I’m bullish on this game being uptempo and competitive, but while we will see touchdowns, it’s unsettling that the TD market for this one may as well be priced like a College Football Playoff.
My instinct was to go back to WR2 Jameson Williams at +210, but while he’s scored in two of the last three games, his targets have fallen off a cliff with only nine in that span. Williams has had +200-ish ATD price in each of the last three weeks, but I think I’d rather just ride WR Amon-Ra St. Brown at +145, because he’s scored in each of the last three games and absolutely cooked the Vikings for 19 catches, 250 yards and two touchdowns last year. Out of all the top guys in this game, the Sun God is the one you can at least trust to see a heavy target share.
Another week removed from his ankle injury, this is a good “buy” week on Vikings WR Jordan Addison at +190. He immediately jumped back into the WR2 role, and while he didn’t score against the Jets in London, he still saw eight targets and played 89% of snaps.
The Lions play man coverage at a top-five rate and Addison led the Vikings with four TDs against man defenses last season.
Verdict: Amon-Ra St. Brown +150 | Jordan Addison +190
Titans vs. Bills
I didn’t know if the Titans pass defense was a mirage or if it just needed to face a decent pocket passer like Joe Flacco. Prior to last week, the Titans hadn’t allowed a QB to throw for over 200 yards (except for Malik Willis) and they hadn't allowed a single TD to a WR.
Then, Flacco waltzes in, and while he didn’t go over 200 yards either, he still threw for a pair of passing TDs to Josh Downs and Michael Pittman. Now, the Titans face the best QB they've faced so far this season in the Bills and Josh Allen, who just got a shiny, new (albeit), regifted WR in Amari Cooper, who should immediately become their WR1.
It’s hard to tell how long the connection will take, but Cooper has a wide range of TD odds from as low at +135 all the way to +250. The latter is worth betting. Cooper was 6th in the league in targets while catching passes from the corpse of DeShaun Watson in Cleveland, and sadly, only three of those were in the red zone.
I’d temper expectations on Cooper in the early going, as the Bills have mainly still been a run-first offense, and the Titans rank top-10 in defensive DVOA for both pass and rush defense. Instead, I'd recommend taking a look at slot WR Khalil Shakir at +360 if he’s back healthy and practicing. But again, temper expectations for Buffalo TD scorers, as this could potentially be a blowout, and the Bills defense sitting back and waiting on turnovers.
This is why the value is mainly on the Titans' WRs like DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley. Both are listed north of +350, and they are the main two guys on the field for Tennessee in two-WR sets.
That being said, Ridley had eight targets last week and no catches. He’s obviously talented, but with the Bills playing zone defense at a top-10 rate, Levis still seems to favor Nuk in zone-coverage matchups, as Hopkins leads the team in target share against zone and yards per route run (2.02).
Verdict: Khalil Shakir +360 | DeAndre Hopkins +390
Panthers vs. Commanders
In a fun game of “which pass defense is the worst?” I’m not sure you can really choose. The Panthers and Commanders have both been hemorrhaging big passing plays all season, with each ranking in the bottom-five in defensive DVOA against the pass, and have given up a combined 24 passing touchdowns, with 19 of those to wide receivers.
That’s why WR1s Terry McLaurin and Diontae Johnson each have odds below +160 to score this week. If you’re betting on the top guys in this game, you’re paying a premium.
I’d take a gander down the list to WR2 Noah Brown at +310 for this matchup. He played 64% of snaps and saw eight targets in Week 6 against Baltimore after missing the previous week, with one of those targets coming in the red zone.
With the Panthers playing zone at a top-10 rate, the main two Commanders WRs to have some success against zone are McLaurin and Brown. That being said, you can probably make a case for nearly any Commanders WR, but I’m going with Brown since he’s the only one seeing 60% or more of snaps when he plays, whereas the remainder of them play less than 40% on average.
For the Panthers, if you want to bet on Diontae Johnson over +150, I wouldn’t blame you at all. He’s the clear No. 1 WR and the Commanders rank 31st in defensive DVOA against WR1s, with the top wideout for opposing teams scoring six TDs in four games against this defense.
I’d rather look further down the list than Johnson or Xavier Leggette (+250) and try my luck with WR3 Jalen Coker at +500. He’s played over 50% of snaps in each of the last two games and seems to be gaining traction over WR Jonathan Mingo.
The Commanders still play man defense at a top-10 rate, while ranking in the bottom-10 in defensive DVOA against the deep pass. All Panthers receivers are live.
Verdict: Noah Brown +310 | Sprinkle on Jalen Coker +500
Raiders vs. Rams
Rams WR Cooper Kupp is back. His presence alone floats all boats for Rams' pass-catchers, and while I do expect him to see his regular dose of double-digit targets, it’s WR2 Demarcus Robinson we should be targeting at +300. He’s the only Rams WR to see consistent playing time regardless of Kupp's presence and leads the team with four red-zone targets. A WR2 has scored in three of five games vs. the Raiders, and they rank 24th in defensive DVOA against the pass.
Raiders TE Brock Bowers is listed around +200 to score this week, and given the volume he’s regularly seeing (7.6 targets per game), it’s hard to justify another Raider in this spot. The Rams play zone coverage at a top-6 rate and Bowers has crushed zone with a 33% target share and 2.48 Yards per Route Run, which both rank in the top-2 in the NFL against that type of defense.
Add in the fact the Rams rank last in defensive DVOA against TEs this season, this one almost feels too obvious.
Verdict: Demarcus Robinson +300 | Brock Bowers +210
Chiefs vs. 49ers
A rematch of the Super Bowl, this is a tough spot to pick a member of the 49ers. The Chiefs defense has been nearly impenetrable this season, ranking second in defensive DVOA against the run and 10th against the pass. They’ve only allowed two rushing TDs all season, which means QB Brock Purdy will likely have to throw to have some success, but the prices on Brandon Aiyuk (+155) and TE George Kittle (+165) make it difficult to find value.
By default, I’d probably bet on WR3 Jauan Jennings at +310 but if I had to make a choice, I’d keep riding with Kittle since the Chiefs have allowed the most targets to TE in the NFL with two touchdowns allowed and he’s scored now in four straight games.
It's a pretty flimsy argument but when it's a high-profile matchup like this, just go with a stud like Kittle, given that Aiyuk should have a tougher matchup with CB Trent McDuffie.
I’m not sure what kind of offensive success the Chiefs will have in this one because they’ve been pretty underwhelming on that side of the ball. QB Patrick Mahomes only has six passing TDs in five games while only topping 300 yards once with the Chiefs are leaning heavily on field position and the ground game.
RB Kareem Hunt is the new bell-cow in the offense and he’s around +130 to score, which is underwhelming. Mahomes isn’t a great option to run one in either because he hasn’t rushed for a TD in his last 32 games (including playoffs) and he has zero red-zone carries in 2024. If you want to bet him at +500, you could, but just know you’re asking for something to happen that he hasn't done in nearly two years.
The value I see in this game is on WR JuJu Smith-Schuster at +280. Once WR Rashee Rice went down against the Chargers, JuJu has become the go-to target for Mahomes with eight targets in Week 6 and should’ve had a TD but bobbled it before it was intercepted.
Of course, you can always talk yourself into TE Travis Kelce at +160, who has historically crushed zone coverages and the Niners ranking 12th in the NFL for Zone Rate. Nobody is more “due” than Kelce to score, but my sights are on JuJu.
Verdict: JuJu Smith-Schuster +280 | George Kittle +165
