WR Zay Jones, Jaguars
Over 3.5 Receptions (-120, DraftKings)
Jones has all the ingredients needed to take the over, making him our first pick in our NFL Week 7 player props.
He’s averaging an 87% route participation and a 22.2% target rate this season. He also sees high-percentage targets thanks to a fairly low 7.6 average depth of target (aDOT).
The Giants blitz at a league-high rate of 42.5% and Jones has seen his target share go up from 18.5% when Trevor Lawrence isn’t facing a blitz to 21.4% when he is. I’m projecting Jones to catch four-plus passes 61% of the time and would bet this up to -130.
Robinson has a few factors going against him here.
He has seen his route participation fall into the 30% range over the past three weeks as Travis Etienne has essentially become the Jaguars' 1A back. Robinson has only seen an 11.8% target rate this season, so he’s unlikely to make much noise in the passing game with limited playing time.
The Giants use man coverage at the second highest rate, which makes it more difficult for RBs to get involved in the passing game. They haven’t allowed a RB to catch three-plus passes since Week 2, when they held Christian McCaffrey to a 4/26/0 receiving line.
I’m projecting Robinson to stay under 1.5 receptions 66% of the time and would bet this down to -155.
TE Dalton Schultz, Cowboys
Under 30.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)
Schultz has been struggling to play through a PCL injury and was only able to play 10 snaps in Week 5. He then had a pre-game setback in Week 6 that prevented him from seeing the field.
He was able to get in full practices this week and is off the injury report, and he will also get quarterback Dak Prescott back under center. I expect Schultz to get his season back on track shortly, but I like the idea of fading him for just one more week.
The Lions defense has been brutal this year, ranking last in DVOA. However, they play man coverage at the highest rate in the league. Important, because last season Schultz averaged 1.99 yards per route run (Y/RR) against zone and 0.86 Y/RR against man.
I expect the Cowboys to build up a lead through their passing attack, which will flow through CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup and Noah Brown. Then they will lean on their running game with the lead.
Schultz could be the odd man out and I’m projecting his median closer to 25.5 yards. I would only bet this at 30.5.
RB Josh Jacobs, Raiders
Over 18.5 Rushing Attempts (-110, DraftKings)
The Raiders ranked fourth in early down pass rate in neutral situations from Weeks 1-3, but then pivoted to a more run-heavy approach, ranking 22nd in early down pass rate from Weeks 4-5.
I think they will stick with a more run-heavy game plan following their bye week, especially considering they are seven-point home favorites against the Texans.
Jacobs has dominated the Raiders' backfield this season, averaging a 79% rushing share and I’m projecting his median attempts closer to 20.5. I would bet this up to -135.
QB Ryan Tannehill, Titans
Under 220.5 Passing Yards (-110, BetMGM)
The Titans are 2.5-point home favorites in a divisional battle against the Colts. It sets up for a run-heavy game script where Tennessee leans on Derrick Henry heavily.
The Titans' passing attack is not as dynamic without stud WR A.J. Brown and the player they drafted to replace him, Treylon Burks, is currently on IR with a toe injury.
Tannehill has to lean on a plethora of possession receivers/tight ends in Robert Woods, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Kyle Philips, Geoff Swaim and Austin Hooper to move the chains. He carries a fairly low floor when it comes to passing yards as a result, and I’m projecting him closer to 209.5.
