WR Donovan Peoples-Jones
Under 18.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Peoples-Jones saw his routes run rate plummet to 50% in Week 7, but he still managed two catches for 22 yards. His snaps came at the expense of Marquise Goodwin, who is questionable due to a back injury this week. He returned to practice on Friday and was limited, which increases his chances of suiting up.
If Goodwin is ruled out, it would be a blow to this prop. It also could be a chance to get rookie Cedric Tillman, who's not on the injury report, more work.
Peoples-Jones also struggles against zone, which Seattle plays at the highest rate in the NFL. His 0.41 yards per route run rate ranks 87th of 90 qualified receivers — and he may see fewer routes moving forward.
Peoples-Jones is also going to face CBs Riq Whoolen, Devon Witherspoon or safety Jamal Adams in coverage. I also can't imagine getting him the ball is part of the Browns' game plan.
I'm projecting Peoples-Jones' median closer to 13.5 yards with a 61% chance of staying under 18.5.
LB Kyzir White
Over 4.5 Solo Tackles (-120)
This is a great matchup for White, who faces a Ravens team that has generated the third-most tackle opportunities per game in the NFL and the most for linebackers. He's cleared this total in five of seven games.
Note that I'm going with the solo tackles market here. Cardinals home stat crews tend to be stingy with assists and reward solo tackles at one of the highest rates in the league. This is the safer market to invest in White's tackle upside.
I'd bet this to -160.
QB Zach Wilson
Under 199.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Wilson has been held under this number in five of his six games this season, and it’s hard to find many factors that would suggest he could buck that trend here.
Whenever you take the under on a pass yards prop, it’s key to avoid a trailing game script. The Jets are three-point favorites and will be getting back their elite CB duo of Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, which should help lower the chances we see the Jets facing a touchdown deficit which would be less than ideal for this prop.
The Giants are a run-funnel defense that ranks 15th in DVOA against the pass and 30th against the run. Breece Hall saw his usage ramp up heading into the Jets’ Week 7 bye. He’s going to be much closer to 100% health, and I could see him having a huge game here — at the expense of Wilson passing yards.
We might also see some rain in this game. Even more reason for the Jets to shy away from putting too much on Wilson’s plate. It’s a game where the Jets will likely be able to lean heavily on their run game and defense in order to come away with the win.
I’m projecting his median closer to 187.5 here with a 60% chance to stay under 199.5. It’s also a prop I can see getting bet down very soon and wanted to get ahead of it.
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TE Connor Heyward
Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Imagine if books were floating this prop for Pat Freiermuth. That’s pretty close to what is going on here.
Heyward isn’t quite the same talent as Freiermuth, but he has essentially taken over his role. He was the Steelers tight end used the most in passing situations last week, resulting in him running a route on 96% of Kenny Pickett’s dropbacks. Heyward only saw a target on 11% of those routes, which is much lower than his season-long rate of 17%.
I’m expecting him to have closer to an 80% routes run rate and a target rate of 16%. That gets us around three receptions for Heyward, which should be more than enough to clear this prop, something that will be within reach with just two receptions.
Steelers offensive coordinator Matt Canada drew up a play last week specifically for Heyward for a nice catch and run. I think we could see something similar again this week
Freiermuth typically thrives against zone, so we can imagine Heyward may also benefit from the fact the Jags defense uses zone at the seventh-highest rate. The Jags have blown quite a few coverages to TEs lately, allowing huge plays to Jonnu Smith and Kylen Granson. They also Foster Moreau wide open for a TD (that he dropped) last week on Thursday Night Football.
I'm projecting Heyward’s median closer to 23.5 and a 61% chance that he can clear 18.5.
| Rec. Yards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 17.5 | 64.3% | 35.7% |
| 18.5 | 61.8% | 38.2% |
| 19.5 | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| 20.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 21.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 22.5 | 53% | 47% |
TE Hayden Hurst
Under 3.5 receptions (-166)
In six games this season, Hurst has only cleared this line once — in the opener against the Falcons.
In fact, he has only had one game with more than three targets (also against Atlanta), giving him a lowly 10% share on the season. One of the reasons for this downturn in productivity is the emergence of WR Adam Thielen, who has excelled for the Panthers in the slot and has been a favorite over-the-middle target for Bryce Young.
With coaches frustrated over his run-blocking (he wasn't asked to do much of that in previous stops with Baltimore, Atlanta and Cincinnati), Hurst has also seen his snap count cut into by Tommy Tremble; against Miami in Week 6, he had 36 total snaps to Tremble's 31.
Hurst finished Carolina's loss to the Dolphins with just one catch for 16 yards, the third time in his last four games with just a single reception.
Despite facing a Houston team that has given up the most receiving yards to tight ends through the first seven weeks, my projections have Hurst closer to 2.7 catches on Sunday, and a 69% chance he stays under that number.
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RB Brian Robinson
Under 39.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Last week, I warned that Chris Rodriguez was potentially going to eat into Robinson's work on early downs. That’s exactly what happened as the rookie rushed for 7/31/0 while Robinson posted an 8/23/1 line. Both backs have rushed for 54 yards the past two weeks, but it’s taken Rodriguez seven fewer carries to get there.
The Commanders are a pass-heavy team and use Antonio Gibson in most passing situations, which means Robinson can’t afford to concede any early down work, which is happening. Washington is also a seven-point home 'dog, which means it’ll likely be a more pass-heavy game script against an Eagles defense that ranks first in DVOA against the run.
Robinson is one of the worst pass-blocking RBs in the league this season, which is why he only plays on early downs. Given how often the Commanders throw, he is forced to block quite a bit. He’s allowed five pressures and a sack. Washington could be tempted to use Rodriguez more if he’s a more capable pass blocker and more efficient runner.
There are a ton of factors that indicate Robinson is more likely to have a floor game here and I’m projecting his median closer to 34.5 with a 60% chance to stay under 39.5.
S Kamren Curl
Over 6.5 Tackles + Assists (-145)
Curl is coming off a disappointing game that saw him record just three tackles + assists, but he's cleared this in five of seven games this season.
The Eagles have allowed the most tackles to safeties per game (and in general) in the NFL this season, making this a plus matchup for Curl, who makes a ton of tackles in both the run and pass game.
The Washington stat crew is very generous when it comes to handing out credit for assists, so he usually gets a boost from playing at home.
I'd bet this up to -170.
QB Tua Tagovailoa
Under 4.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Tagovailoa has been held under this in 11 of 18 games (61%) he’s started and finished (or mostly finished) over the past two seasons. His average has been 4.8 rushing yards, but his median is just 0.5.
There has been a concerted effort to have him run less this year due to his concussion history, but he’s managed to just sneak over this three times with yardage totals of five, six and seven yards. He’s been a bit lucky to clear this at a 43% clip this season.
Considering Tagovailoa could clear this prop at some point during the game, only to kneel the ball 1-3 times at the end and the under to ultimately hit, getting exposure to four yards being graded as a win is offering sneaky value. In Week 1, if the Dolphins had gotten the ball back just a few seconds earlier, he would've kneeled down three times instead of just twice and finished with 4 yards. In Week 2, he muffed the snap in the victory formation and they ruled it as a fumble instead of a run of minus-1 yard. In Weeks 3 and 6, the Dolphins were up by so much that it was Mike White who was in the game by the time it came time for the victory formation. In Week 5, if the Dolphins had gotten the ball back 50-60 seconds sooner, it would have led to a couple more kneel-downs and for the under to hit.
TL;DR if you were to reshuffle some of Tagovailoa’s rushing attempts this season and see a bit more normal kneel-down usage, he could have easily been held under this about 71% of the time this season.
Also, the Patriots have only allowed two QBs to clear this number this season: Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen.
QB rush props are one of the trickiest to project, but I would feel comfortable saying this has around a 63% chance of staying under. I’m sure Mike McDaniel and Tagovailoa himself wouldn’t mind if he stayed under this, as well.
