NFL Week 8 has arrived, and I have three NFL player props to target for the eighth NFL Sunday of the season.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 8, which include picks for Nick Chubb, Tyler Allgeier and Terrion Arnold. Keep tabs on this story as I continue to add more NFL Week 8 prop picks.
Sean Koerner's NFL Player Props Week 8
- RB Nick Chubb Longest Rush Under 12.5 Yards (+100; DraftKings)
- CB Terrion Arnold Under 3.5 Tackles + Assists (-120; DraftKings)
- RB Tyler Allgeier Longest Rush Over 12.5 Yards (-110; DraftKings)
- S Jessie Bates Under 6.5 Tackles + Assists (-125; DraftKings)
- RB James Conner Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-110; DraftKings)
- S Budda Baker Over 7.5 Tackles + Assists (-110; DraftKings)
- CB Ronald Darby Under 4.5 Tackles (-120; BetMGM)
- RB Joe Mixon Over 17.5 Rush Attempts (-105; BetMGM)
- CB D.J. Reed Under 4.5 Tackles (-130; DraftKings)
Ravens vs Browns Player Props: Nick Chubb Longest Rush
It was nice to see Nick Chubb return to action last week. He showed some of the burst he had before suffering a devastating knee injury, but it still may take him a few games to regain form. It's also possible he may not return the elite level he had pre-injury.
Chubb has averaged 5+ yards per carry in each of his six seasons, but it's hard to imagine him doing that again at this stage in his career, especially considering the Browns' offensive line isn’t as good this year (ESPN run block win rate ranks 26th). They've dealt with injuries and LT Jedrick Wills Jr. has been ruled out this week with a knee injury.
This is also a brutal matchup for Chubb — the Ravens have only allowed 2 RBs to rush for a 13+ yard gain all season.
Chubb should see his usage ramp up this week, but he might not get many carries in what should be a more pass-heavy, trailing game script against the Ravens.
He typically bounces his runs outside, but last week he ran inside on 66% of his rushes, which was a bit out of character. If that continues, it would make it even tougher to break a longer run because the Ravens have been even better defending inside runs.
I’m projecting Chubb's median longest rush closer to 11 (which would make him only the third RB to have a 10+ yard run all season against Baltimore), but around a 60% chance to stay under 12.5 because every yard in this market is massive.
Titans vs Lions Player Props: Terrion Arnold Tackles + Assists
Terrion Arnold, the Lions' first-round pick this year out of Alabama, has only cleared 3.5 tackles and assists number in two of six games.
The two times he went over were against the Rams in Week 1, when both Cooper Kupp/Puka Nacua were healthy and combined for 18 receptions, and in Week 4 against the Seahawks, when their trio of WRs combined for 20 receptions. Those are the types of games Arnold can clear this number.
But he’s not involved in run defense, with only one tackle on a run play all season. The Titans are a team that provides tackles to CBs at one of the lowest rates.
Arnold defends on the outside most of the time, so he will be covering either Calvin Ridley or Nick Westbrook-Ikhine on most snaps. That’s not going to lead to a ton of tackle opportunities.
In fact, the Titans with Mason Rudolph (assuming Will Levis doesn’t play) are only expected to complete around 20 passes, which is around 5-5.5 fewer than the Lions typically allow.
I’m projecting Arnold closer to 2.7 tackles and assists, with around a 70% chance to stay under (22% chance he gets exactly three).
Falcons vs Buccaneers Player Props: Jessie Bates Tackles + Assists
Jessie Bates typically gets a handful of tackles but has stayed under this in five of seven games.
Tampa Bay usually provides many tackle opportunities for the secondary, but with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin being out, I’m expecting a much more run-heavy approach.
Bates is also heavily involved in the run game, so that doesn’t necessarily mean we’re in the clear here. However, the Falcons have faced 31.4 rush attempts per game this season. So, even with my more run-heavy projection of 25.5 for Tampa Bay, that’s still potentially six fewer rush attempts than it typically faces.
Safety Justin Simmons is expected to miss this game, which means Richie Grant will take his place. In the past, when both Bates and Grant were in the lineup, it typically led to Bates playing deep at a higher rate and in the box at a lower rate, which would hurt his tackle projection.
The Falcons’ home stat crew is the most generous when it comes to dishing out assists, which means we may see fewer assists from him on the road. Conversely, the Bucs’ home scorekeeper happens to be the stingiest when handing out assists.
I’m projecting him closer to 5.8 tackles with around a 63% chance to stay under 6.5.
Falcons vs Buccaneers Player Props: Tyler Allgeier Longest Rush
Tyler Allgeier is Bijan Robinson’s backup so his workload relies a ton on the game script.
Last week, the Falcons got blown out by the Seahawks, so Robinson dominated the work and Allgeier only had five carries though he managed to rip a 24-yard rush.
He’s a very efficient runner and this is a great matchup for him because the Falcons are slight favorites here (-2.5), so we could get a more run-heavy game script.
The Bucs have a pretty solid run defense, ranking 9th in DVOA. However, they tend to be much better on inside runs with Vita Vea helping stuff those rushes.
The Bucs struggle against runs to the outside, allowing the most rushing yards over expected, according to NextGenStats. That sets up perfectly for Allgeier, who runs outside at the third-highest rate among qualified RBs. Slot CB Tykee Smith is also out — he’s been good in run defense this year.
I prefer this market over Allgeier's yards because it’s always tricky trying to project how much work he will get, but I think he’s a safer bet to rip off at least one long run.
I'm projecting his median closer to 14 yards with around a 60% chance to go over.
Cardinals vs Dolphins Player Props: James Conner Receiving Yards
James Conner has been trending up in this market over the last few games as he’s seen a 10%+ first-read rate in three straight contests.
He’s been seeing more designed screen passes and dump-offs, which is giving him a higher floor in this market than usual. The Dolphins defense hasn’t allowed much production to RBs in the passing game, but I feel it’s been due to the fact that they’ve played with the lead at the lowest rate in the league. They’ve also allowed the fourth-highest separation rate on RB targets, which means Conner should have room to run if/when he does make a catch.
With Tua Tagovailoa back under center — and the Dolphins 4.5-point favorites — we could see the Cardinals get into a more pass-heavy game script.
While the Cardinals will surely lean on Conner in the run game early on, we could see Kyler Murray drop back to pass a bit more, which should benefit Conner’s target volume. Conner is also due for some positive catch regression as he’s caught 74% of his targets, which is 10% lower than his expected catch rate of 84%.
I’m projecting his median closer to 14.5 receiving yards with around a 62% chance he clears 10.5.
Cardinals vs Dolphins Player Props: Budda Baker Tackles + Assists
Budda Baker typically clears this number as he has gone over 7.5 in six of seven games this year. The one time he failed to clear it, he finished with seven tackles against the Lions.
The Dolphins with Tagovailoa under center will provide more tackle opportunities for safeties and Baker tends to split time in the box/deep with Jalen Thompson, so he will be involved on run plays that get to the second level or pass plays over the middle of the field. The Dolphins provide plenty of those tackle opportunities.
I'm projecting Baker closer to 8.7 tackles + assists with around a 64% chance to clear 7.5.
Packers vs Jaguars Player Props: Ronald Darby Tackles
Ronald Darby cleared 4.5 tackles in four of seven games, but there are a few reasons why there’s value on the under.
The games he cleared were against the Dolphins (when Tua Tagovailoa played in Week 1), Bills, Texans and Bears. Darby was getting tackles against high-usage WRs in those games.
While the Packers have a very good passing attack, they are actually one of the worst for CBs to rack up tackles. Jordan Love tends to spread the ball around and throws deep at a high rate, which leads to throws with a lower completion rate and also provides safeties with a huge boost in tackle rate.
Darby will likely split time across from WRs Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson, avoiding Jayden Reed in the slot most of the time. Darby's allowed a 73% catch rate, which is 12% higher than his expected catch rate allowed.
It’s a new scheme on a new team, so we shouldn't expect him to regress all the way toward his career rates, but he’s surely due for better catch% allowed luck.
I'm projecting Darby closer to 4.1 tackles with around a 60% chance to stay under.
Texans vs. Colts Player Props: Joe Mixon Rushing Attempts
You usually have to be careful with these props, as they can seem easy to clear. However, various underlying factors can come into play that act as “outs” for the under to hit.
Other than the Colts getting a 2+ score lead early, forcing a pass-heavy game script, Mixon doesn’t have as many red flags when it comes to this prop.
The Texans have been very run-heavy the past two games with Mixon finally healthy as well as Nico Collins being on IR.
They also have been running at a very high rate following a first down, which will provide Mixon with a high floor.
Houston has also been using Dare Ogunbowale as the clear pass-catching back – taking all of the third down and two-minute offense snaps. It means it doesn’t need to give Mixon breathers on early downs or run heavy plays.
The Colts have allowed the most run plays per game because their offense plays at a fast pace, and has averaged just 2:21 per drive (the lowest in the league).
I’m projecting him closer to 18.8 carries and around a 60% chance to clear this.
Jets vs. Patriots Player Props: D.J. Reed Tackles
D.J. Reed has stayed under this number in three of five games played.
The Patriots don’t provide a ton of tackle opportunities for cornerbacks and Reed is among the top cornerbacks in the league.
I’m expecting Reed to be matched up with Kayshon Boutte or Kendrick Bourne most of the time. Demario Douglas and Hunter Henry are usually Drake Maye’s top targets, so it wouldn’t make sense for him to be throwing Reed’s way here.
Reed is pretty involved in run tackling, but the Jets are expected to face approximately five fewer rush attempts than usual this week.
Think about it, the Jets are a 2-5 team that is favored by seven. They should be able to play with a leading game script and face less rush volume than normal.
A negative pass-heavy game script would typically make it tougher for a cornerback to stay under their prop, but in Reed’s case, it actually helps him.
We already saw this in Week 3, when these teams faced each other and Reed finished with just two tackles.
I’m projecting him closer to 3.9 tackles with around a 65% chance he stays under 4.5.
