Every week during the NFL season, there’s an angle or matchup to be exploited, whether with the spread and total — or with player props. This also applies to the Anytime Touchdown Scorers market.
I go through every NFL game on Sunday afternoon throughout the season to identify the players you should consider betting on the TD Scorers market and whether the odds are worth the investment.
Let's break down my player props in the touchdown scorer market for my NFL props in Week 8.
NFL Player Props: Anytime Touchdown Scorers
No team desperately needs its quarterback more than the Dolphins. In four games without Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins have topped out at 16 points after leading the NFL in points per game last season.
If Tagovailoa is back, WR Tyreek Hill should go off in a great matchup against the Cardinals, who are 29th in defensive DVOA against the pass and rank in the bottom five against the deep ball. Don’t overthink it and consider laddering Hill for two touchdowns.
The Dolphins have low-key been one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, only allowing three passing touchdowns in six games. A big reason why, though, is their run defense is atrocious (ranked 31st in defensive DVOA) and teams have rarely been in a trailing game script and don’t need to pass. This should be a pretty strong game for RB James Conner (+105) but if you wanted to take QB Kyler Murray at +205, that’s also a decent option.
I’m going back to Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. at +190. He’s had success this year against both man and zone defenses, you know he’ll play at least 80% of snaps, and the Dolphins rank 31st in defensive DVOA against WR1. I know it’s a tougher matchup for Harrison with CB Jalen Ramsey, so I wouldn't mind taking a crack at WR2 Michael Wilson (+300).
Verdict: Tyreek Hill +120 | Marvin Harrison Jr. +190
We just saw this matchup back in Week 3 and it was really the only game when the Jets offense fulfilled its high-end potential. QB Aaron Rodgers threw for two touchdowns to Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard, but with WR Davante Adams in the fold, it’s hard to pinpoint where Rodgers affections will lead. Wilson and Adams each still saw nine targets in Week 7, so it seems like Lazard is firmly the odd man out.
Normally, I’d want to pepper Lazard in this spot, but he only saw four targets along with playing 58% of snaps in Week 7. Unless there’s an injury, I’d rather pivot to TE Tyler Conklin at +550, who finally got his first touchdown last week against the Steelers and had five catches for 93 yards and a red-zone target against the Pats in Week 3.
For the Patriots, having QB Drake Maye throw passes is such a breath of fresh air compared to Jacoby Brissett. The rookie already has five touchdown passes in two starts and is facing a battered Jets secondary that might be without safeties Tony Adams and Ashtyn Davis.
I was initially eying WR Ja’Lynn Polk at +500, but I think it is a great time to grab WR Kendrick Bourne at +750. Bourne is the Patriots' highest-paid receiver and might be on the trade block, which could lead them to featuring him and drive up the bargaining price. I like Polk and with Maye now at QB, all Patriots WRs get a bump in value.
Verdict: Sprinkle on Tyler Conklin +550 | Sprinkle on Kendrick Bourne +750
It was such a bummer to see Bucs WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both get injured. The tandem was always a fun way to hit some touchdown bets because QB Baker Mayfield would continuously feed them targets. Now, we still have Mayfield but are stuck with Sterling Shepard, Trey Palmer and Jalen McMillan.
Normally, in this spot, I’d target the opposing WR1 when facing the Falcons because they’ve allowed a touchdown to the opposition's top wideout in four of the last five games, but who is it? Palmer may be the choice since he led that trio in snaps played in Week 7. Since the Falcons play zone at the second-highest rate in NFL, he’s the best bet to make, especially since he’s the only Bucs WR outside of Evans and Godwin to catch a touchdown against zone defense this season.
The Buccaneers defense has ranked in the middle of the pack for the majority of the season and just allowed five passing touchdowns, two to tight end Mark Andrews and two to running backs. This means you could likely take your pick on Falcons players this week and have data to support your case.
My first thought was to keep firing on WR Drake London at +125 since he’s scored in five of seven games, including Week 5 against the Bucs, but I think we should target TE Kyle Pitts at +220. He hasn’t scored since Week 1 but still plays the most snaps of any Falcons tight end and the Bucs rank 29th in defensive DVOA against the position.
Verdict: Trey Palmer +325 | Kyle Pitts +220
It's getting harder and harder to find value on Lions touchdown scorers. Detroit will want to run the ball as much as possible in this matchup. The data says the Titans defense has been decent against the run, but that was debunked quickly in Week 7. The Bills ran for two touchdowns and while the Titans kept the yardage down (74 yards on 20 carries), this is shaping up to be a heavy dose of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, which is why both have minus odds to score.
If you want to take a shot on WR3 Kalif Raymond at +360, that’s a decent option. If the Lions get up early, though, I don’t expect much from the Titans offense to make the urgency kick in for Detroit. With that, I’ll pass on the Lions for this week.
On the other side, this should line up well for WR Calvin Ridley to get his first score since Week 2. DeAndre Hopkins has been traded and Ridley should be the focal point with the large contract he signed in the offseason. The Lions have only allowed four touchdowns to WR all season but three of those were to WR1. At +250, Ridley is the only Titans player who I'd strongly consider to score.
Verdict: Calvin Ridley +250
When picking a touchdown scorer against the Jaguars, the first thing to look at is which players do well against man coverage. The Jags play man at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, and it’s done them no favors. They’re last in passing touchdowns allowed along with the second-most passing yards given up.
This leads us to WR Christian Watson and WR Dontayvion Wicks. Both are decent candidates to score but my instinct is to go to Wicks, who leads the Packers in red-zone targets and is first in target share and aDOT against man coverage. Technically, all Packers pass-catchers are live. Even TE Tucker Kraft is a half-decent option at +190 since Jacksonville ranks 31st in defensive DVOA against TE with four touchdowns allowed.
I can’t believe I’m recommending this, but Jags TE Evan Engram (+265) might have the best matchup potential to score. He has seen 15 targets over his last two games, and the Packers rank 29th in DVOA against tight ends. I’m just not high on Gabe Davis or Brian Thomas Jr. if CB Jaire Alexander plays since he's the main reason the Packers rank sixth against WR1 in DVOA. I’d steer clear of Jags WRs in this one.
Verdict: Dontayvion Wicks +300 | Evan Engram +265
I said this last week and it may as well be an evergreen statement when it comes to QB Anthony Richardson and Colts touchdown scorers: “When Richardson starts, all passing touchdown potential goes out the window and each WR should be +300 or better.”
Well, here we are again this week in a way tougher matchup against the Texans, who rank sixth in defensive DVOA against the pass. The positive news is they’ve allowed 15 passing touchdowns, including 10 to wide receivers, so there’s some optimism in taking someone like Josh Downs at +325. The Texans have more success when they play zone and Downs has been the Colts’ "Zone Killer" and leads the team in target share and receiving touchdowns against that defense. The bad news is both of his touchdown receptions this season were with QB Joe Flacco. Hence the “+300 or better” distinction since Downs would be closer to +225 if Flacco was starting. Bet all Colts WRs with caution with T-Rich at QB.
When the Texans played the Colts in Week 1, my recommendation was WR Tank Dell at +275 and he nearly had a TD. With the Nico Collins injury, his odds have plummeted to +150 or worse. By default, you have to go with TE Dalton Schultz again because he sees way more targets against zone than man coverage and Colts are 26th in defensive DVOA against pass and 26th against tight ends.
And, it’s National Tight Ends Week!
Verdict: Sprinkle on Josh Downs +320 | Dalton Schultz +320
The re-introduction of QB Jameis Winston into an offense means two things: long throws downfield and interceptions. He has 99 interceptions in 98 career games, but at least he was pushing the ball downfield and trying to make plays. Say what you will about QB Deshaun Watson as a person but as a quarterback, he just couldn’t be counted on as he had less than 200 yards passing in each start.
While I do expect Winston to have some success against the Ravens man defense, temper expectations on a high-upside passing day.
If the Browns plan to have success throwing the ball, they need to keep going to TE David Njoku (+320). His target rate has bumped up in each game and he caught a touchdown with Winston in garbage time in Week 7. The Ravens defense plays a ton of man coverage (ninth most) and ranks 28th in defensive DVOA against tight ends with the most targets allowed to the position. If you’re looking at Browns WRs, you could also take a swing on WR Cedric Tillman (+500), who saw 12 targets in last week, since the Ravens have allowed the most touchdowns to opposing receivers this season (11).
Maybe I’m alone on an island here, but Ravens TE Mark Andrews is the only player I want. He may be playing fewer snaps than Isaiah Likely, but his connection with QB Lamar Jackson seems to be back in full force with three touchdowns in the last two games and four red-zone targets over his last three. If you want to take Likely instead, just make sure you get similar odds or better than Andrews.
Verdict: David Njoku +320 | Mark Andrews +300
If you play man coverage on the Eagles, A.J. Brown will destroy you. He has an insane 5.46 yards-per-route-run rate against man with two touchdowns and, despite missing three games, is still third on the team in targets. The Bengals play man at a top-10 rate in the NFL, are 22nd in defensive DVOA against WR1 and have given up 11 passing touchdowns (ranked 26th). Unless you want to just take QB Jalen Hurts at +150, don’t overthink it and bet Brown.
Speaking of struggling against WR1s, the Eagles rank last in that category for defensive DVOA with seven passing touchdowns allowed. That’s why WR Ja'Marr Chase is around -105 to score. You can ride the chalk with him, but I’d rather look at WR3 Andrei Iosivas at +400.
Look, I know that Iosivas didn’t see many targets last week but if the Eagles can get their act together lock down a top wideout, QB Joe Burrow may need to look elsewhere. Iosivas is at least playing over 70% of snaps and has two touchdowns against man defenses. He’s essentially playing the Tyler Boyd role from previous years, but the big difference is you’d rarely get Boyd over +350 to score. Given the Eagles ranking third in DVOA against tight ends and allowing the second-least amount of targets to the position, I’ll pass on TE Mike Gesicki or Erick All.
Verdict: AJ Brown +150 | Andrei Iosivas +400
Another Bills game, another week when I recommend WR Khalil Shakir.
The speedy slot receiver is up to +360 at some spots to score, but I think these odds should be lower. The Seahawks defense has allowed four touchdowns to slot receivers over the last four games and of their 10 touchdown passes allowed, seven have gone to receivers. I still think WR Amari Cooper will be involved, but the value is gone with his odds at +165 or lower. I’d rather bet on Shakir, who has crushed zone defenses this season and leads the Bills in target share while also scoring two touchdowns on man coverages.
Assuming DK Metcalf misses this game — and if he does play, he'll presumably be limited — and the Bills playing zone at a top-10 rate, it could be a tough day for Seahawks receivers. Both Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett have worse receiver metrics against zone compared to man. If Metcalf can’t go, let’s get wild with second-year WR Jake Bobo. He’ll likely be on the outside in place of Metcalf as he only played 33% of his snaps this season in the slot and could be a big target for Geno Smith in the end zone. At +370, he’s who I would target.
Verdict: Khalil Shakir +370 | Jake Bobo +370
If you’re betting on Saints touchdown scorers, it could be a tough day with QB Spencer Rattler. He only has one touchdown pass in two games and now is facing the Chargers, whose defense ranks eighth in Pass DVOA. Normally, this is a game where you’d want to target Saints pass-catchers who do great against zone because the Chargers run that defense at the top rate in the league. If Saints WR Rashid Shaheed was playing, he’s the guy you’d want. He's injured, though, so you have to go with WR Chris Olave at +275 by default. He leads the team in target share against zone and yards per route run against zone.
The Chargers should be able to have some success against the Saints defense, but that likely comes on the ground. New Orleans' defense is 31st in DVOA against the run and is coming off a game that saw the Broncos average 6.4 yards per carry and score two rushing touchdowns. That’s why Chargers RB JK Dobbins is -150 to score and when looking at RB2 Kimani Vidal, he’s hovering around +300. Given the discrepancy in carries between the two (39-7 over the last two games), though, it would be a miracle if Vidal got enough work to justify the price.
The Saints also play man at a top-seven rate in the NFL and No. 2 in defensive DVOA against WR1s, which is why WR1 Quentin Johnston is +350 while WR2 Ladd McConkey is +180. If you’re playing it safe, go with McConkey but now WR DJ Chark is coming back in the fold and may steal some slot snaps.
WR3 Simi Fehoko has looked decent in a limited time. At this stage, just sprinkle on the longest odds for a Chargers WR because the top options are overvalued.
Verdict: Chris Olave +275 | Sprinkle on Simi Fehoko +500
With or without Commanders QB Jayden Daniels, it could be a tough passing day for Washington. Coupled with facing a Bears secondary that ranks second in defensive DVOA against the pass and has only allowed four passing touchdowns, it’s tough to find a Commanders angle I like.
The only Washington player who intrigues me is WR2 Noah Brown at +500. He’s played the second-most snaps for any Washington receiver in each of the last two games and will likely have an “easier” matchup while Bears CB Jaylon Johnson likely shadows WR1 Terry McLaurin. If you wanted to sprinkle on WR3 Olamide Zacchaeus at +750, I wouldn’t mind that either.
As soon as I saw the Bears opponent, I immediately looked up TE Cole Kmet’s touchdown odds. He’s who I’m grabbing with the threat of TE2 Gerald Everett all but gone. Kmet has out-snapped him in every game with Everett playing fewer than 40% of snaps all but once.
After scoring on the Jaguars at +333 last week, you’d think Kmet's price would plummet given the matchup of facing the weak Commanders secondary that ranks 25th in defensive DVOA against the Pass and 24th against TE. If you don’t like Kmet and want to keep it simple, just bet WR1 DJ Moore at +185 since the Commanders rank 30th in defensive DVOA against opposing WR1s and 31st in touchdowns to WRs (10).
Verdict: Cole Kmet +333 | Noah Brown +500
Look, I don’t know about you but there’s no way I’m betting on Panthers pass-catchers with Bryce Young at QB. Pair that with facing the Broncos defense that is likely to get All-Pro CB Patrick Surtain back, that sounds like a recipe for disaster. The only angle I’d even consider is for Young to run one at +900 because the odds are decent and he may just end up panicking in the red zone when he realizes all of his wide receivers are covered.
I almost bet on Bo Nix to throw an interception this week, but then I remembered he’s facing the Panthers and quickly reconsidered. The Carolina defense ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass and has given up 14 passing touchdowns. Take your pick on the Broncos and it has upside. This should be the week for receiver Devaughn Vele to get in the end zone because the Panthers play zone at a top-10 rate and Vele leads the team in target share and yards per route run against zone. At +310, he’s the upside bet to make.
Verdict: DeVaughn Vele +310 | Sprinkle on Bryce Young +900
DeAndre Hopkins is +200 to score in his first game with the Chiefs, which is wild to me. He had average odds of +320 or more with the Titans this season and even though QB Patrick Mahomes only has six passing touchdowns in six games, Nuk is still getting the “Chiefs Premium” with inflated touchdown odds.
I’m not saying you shouldn’t bet Hopkins, but he only played 50% or more of snaps in one game this year so we should temper expectations. That being said, the Chiefs will likely find a couple of red-zone opportunities for him and, if he scores, you’ll never see +200 again while he’s in a Chiefs uniform.
I’d rather look down the oddsboard and take a flier on RB3 Samaje Perine. He’s the pass-catching back for the Chiefs and leads Chiefs RBs in targets. RB1 Kareem Hunt has been getting targets, as well, but with the Raiders struggling to contain pass-catching RBs (rank 23rd in defensive DVOA against RB), the better opportunity to sprinkle on Perine at +600 since Hunt is around -125. It’s also worth noting that WR Justin Watson (+450) hasn’t scored a touchdown yet this season but scored in both games against the Raiders last season.
For the Raiders, you can tell sportsbooks don’t expect much offensive output with the RB Alexander Mattison as the biggest Las Vegas fave to score at +210. WR Jakobi Meyers at +320 is intriguing since he doesn’t line up outside exclusively, which means he likely won’t draw the brutal matchup with Chiefs CB Trent MacDuffie. But even then, he’s missed the last three games and could be on a snap count restriction.
If you think the Raiders can compete and keep the game relatively close, then you may as well sprinkle on a Raiders Defense TD too at +1100. QB Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL in interceptions and the Raiders got two defensive touchdowns in their win over the Chiefs last year.
Verdict: Jakobi Meyers +350 | Sprinkle on Samaje Perine +600 | Sprinkle on Raiders Defense +1100
