Dawson Knox
ATD +225 (PointsBet)
Anyone who follows me on Twitter or has heard me talk about Dawson Knox knows he’s an auto-bet when he’s higher than +200.
Knox has touchdowns in back-to-back games, and he can get hot in this offense. Last season, he had a four-game span with five touchdowns.
The Jets haven’t allowed a touchdown to an opposing tight end this season, but they’re not exactly locking them down. New York ranks in the bottom five in targets receptions and receiving yards allowed to the position.
I almost took Isaiah McKenzie at +225, but I’m instead Team Knox this week.
Robert Tonyan
ATD +250 (DraftKings)
This feels like a get-right game for a struggling Green Bay passing attack.
Tonyan is second on the team in targets and receiving yards, and he’s routinely playing the most snaps of any Packers tight end.
Tonyan only has one touchdown this season, but he’s historically done well against Detroit. After becoming the Packers’ starting tight end in 2020, he scored in three straight games against the Lions.
The Detroit defense hasn’t stopped anyone this season, especially tight ends. The Lions have given up five touchdowns to the position in seven games this season. The teams that have allowed more haven’t had a bye week like Detroit, which speaks to its struggles.
Zay Jones
ATD +270 (DraftKings)
A lot of bettors will point to a “Revenge Game” angle here, but I’m targeting Jones because of his production.
Jones is second on the Jaguars with 50 targets, trailing only Christian Kirk. Both Jones and Kirk, though, have 11 red-zone targets this season. Jones also has two red-zone carries over the last two weeks.
Another encouraging factor here is Jones’ snaps played. Over the Jaguars’ last three games, Jones has played in all but four offensive snaps. He’s clearly over his early-season ankle injury and at 100%.
The Raiders have been lit up through the air this season, allowing 15 passing touchdowns, six of which were to opposing wide receivers.
Las Vegas also has gone four straight games of allowing the opposing quarterback to throw at least two touchdown passes. That includes the struggling Russell Wilson.
Allen Robinson
ATD +300 (FanDuel)
I haven’t bet Robinson since Week 1’s debacle against the Buccaneers, but these odds are simply too much of an overcorrection. Robinson has two touchdowns this season and hasn’t been higher than +220 in the Anytime Touchdown Scorer market this season.
Robinson, despite his struggles, still plays more than 90% of snaps and leads the Rams with 13 red-zone targets, which are the seventh most in the NFL.
The Buccaneers are also a good opponent here, since they’re struggling to contain the pass this season. Tampa Bay has allowed 13 passing touchdowns so far, which is 25th in the NFL.
Terrace Marshall Jr.
ATD +450 (bet365)
As long as sports books keep dangling inflated odds in front of us, we’ll keep betting the Panthers’ No. 2 receiver.
Marshall clearly has the role over Shi Smith. Marshall has six catches, 12 targets and two end-zone drops over the Panthers’ last two games, in which he played a combined 117 snaps. Smith, meanwhile, saw two total targets and played just 63 snaps.
The Bengals secondary is banged up and will be without three starters. Cincinnati also just let Jacoby Brissett throw for almost 300 yards on just 22 attempts.
Even if we get into garbage time of a blowout, this has a great chance of hitting.
