Every week during the NFL season, there’s an angle or matchup to be exploited, whether with the spread and total — or with player props. This also applies to the Anytime Touchdown Scorers market.
I go through every NFL game on Sunday afternoon throughout the season to identify the players you should consider betting on the TD Scorers market and whether the odds are worth the investment.
Let's break down my player props in the touchdown scorer market for my NFL props in Week 9.
NFL Player Props: Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Broncos vs. Ravens
Outside of WR Courtland Sutton, I don’t really want much for Broncos touchdown scorers. He leads the team in red-zone targets, has historically fared well against man defenses (Ravens play man at top-10 rate) and the Ravens defense has been hemorrhaging touchdowns to wide receivers with 13 total (ranked last in NFL). Baltimore also ranks 30th in defensive DVOA against opposing WR1.
If you want to take a swing on WR Lil’Jordan Humphrey at +450, I wouldn’t mind that either given the Ravens' secondary issues and that he has four red-zone targets in the last two games.
I don’t care how good the Broncos secondary has been or that they rank in the top five in defensive DVOA against the pass and opposing tight ends. Hanging a line of +275 for Ravens TE Mark Andrews is disrespectful. Andrews has scored four touchdowns in the last three games and has five red-zone targets in that span.
We’re obviously getting the higher touchdown odds because of the matchup, but the Broncos defense blitzes a lot and plays a ton of zone. The former means QB Lamar Jackson may have to get rid of it quickly, which lends well to Andrews since he leads the Ravens with two receiving touchdowns against zone coverage.
Verdict: Courtland Sutton +250 | Mark Andrews +275
Raiders vs. Bengals
The wasteland of Raiders pass-catchers is a bit all over the place. While we can fully expect rookie TE Brock Bowers to see his weekly boatload of targets, I’d rather bet on WR Jakobi Meyers.
Meyers been almost nearly as effective against zone defenses as Bowers and caught a touchdown in his first game back from missing two games due to injury. With Meyers leading the team in red-zone targets and playing nearly 41% of snaps in the slot, I like for the Raiders to move him around the field and continue getting him in the end zone.
Joe Burrow was quoted as saying this is a “must-win” game for the Bengals. If he’s going to add to the stakes, it might not be a bad idea to sprinkle his ATD line at +450.
Burrow has only run for one touchdown in his last 20 games (including the playoffs) but if the Bengals get inside the 5-yard line and can’t close the deal, I fully expect him to call his own number.
Verdict: Jakobi Meyers +270 | Sprinkle on Joe Burrow +450
Patriots vs. Titans
I know the Patriots got their second win of the season last week, but their defense has been horrendous this year. New England is 29th in defensive DVOA against run and 30th against the pass. A proper offense can exploit this defense at every turn, but it's the Titans this week and they’ve been outscored 86-24 in just the last two games.
This game is made for long shots and with both starting quarterbacks yet to be determined, let’s take a stab on some long odds.
For the Titans, the logical choice would be WR Calvin Ridley since the Patriots play man defense at third-highest rate in the NFL and Ridley leads the team in target share against man. He's not a bad option at +195, but I’d rather keep firing on TE Chig Okonkwo at +600.
Okonkwo is playing the most snaps of any Titans tight end and leads the group with three red-zone targets. Unless you think WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (+375) can sustain his run of touchdowns in three straight games, Okokwo is the play. Just make sure to maintain reasonable expectations on the Titans offense since it has only scored more than 20 points once this season.
For the Patriots, let’s take a crack at WR Kayshon Boutte. His snaps have increased in each of the last four games and he saw two red-zone targets in Week 8. The Titans play man defense at a top-10 rate, and Boutte leads the team in yards per route run against man (2.77), according to Pro Football Focus.
Verdict: Sprinkle on Chig Okonkwo +600 | Sprinkle on Kayshon Boutte +600
Saints vs. Panthers
This is a game where the Saints could really use WR Rashid Shaheed. He’s been their zone buster and the deep threat that became reliable for touchdown bettors when QB Derek Carr would deploy his half-decent deep ball.
Instead, with Chris Olave at +150 or worse, I’d rather just take a swing on TE Foster Moreau at +550. He’s playing more snaps than TE Juwan Johnson (+330), has better receiver metrics against both zone and man coverages and the Panthers have allowed the most touchdowns to tight ends this season (six).
The only positive takeaway with Diontae Johnson being traded is that Xavier Legette is now the WR1. The rookie caught his third touchdown of the season last week and now leads the Panthers by default in red-zone targets (six) with one in each of the last three games. He’s who you’d want to bet at +350, but this could be a tilting experience with QB Bryce Young starting again since we've seen how awful he looked against this Saints defense in Week 1.
If the Saints continue to play man coverage as much as they have this season (at a top-eight rate), Legette is our guy since he leads the Panthers in touchdowns against man defense. Just know his QB likely won’t do him any favors.
Verdict: Sprinkle on Foster Moreau +550 | Xavier Legette +350
Cowboys vs. Falcons
I'm sticking with tight ends here because it's insane that Jake Ferguson doesn’t have a touchdown this season. He’s one of two tight ends (along with Trey McBride) to have more than 40 targets and no touchdowns yet this season, and he’s second on the Cowboys with five red-zone targets. While I would never rely on “he’s due” as a reason to bet a touchdown scorer, the Falcons just gave up two touchdowns to Cade Otton last week.
The “Desmond Ridder Era” feels like five years ago when you look at this year’s iteration of the Falcons offense. With Kirk Cousins at quarterback, the Falcons passing offense ranks in the top-five in passing yards per game and passing touchdowns (14). That’s why guys like WR Drake London (+125), WR Darnell Mooney (+170) and TE Kyle Pitts (+200) all have steamed odds to score.
While I do expect all three to be heavily involved, I keep coming back to Pitts. The Cowboys play zone at a top-10 rate, and Pitts leads the Falcons in yards per route run (2.03) and receiving touchdowns against zone (two). Dallas has allowed a touchdown to a tight end in each of the last three games, so let’s go with Pitts.
Verdict: Jake Ferguson +220 | Kyle Pitts +200
Dolphins vs. Bills
The last time we saw this matchup, we thought QB Tua Tagovailoa may never play football again. While I’d still like to temper expectations on the Dolphins offense with him back, I’m all over WR Jaylen Waddle (+220) this week. Waddle hasn’t caught a touchdown this season and has been dealing with nagging injuries throughout the season while Tagovailoa was on the mend.
A big part of why I like Waddle here is how he’s fared historically against zone coverage. Last year, he and Tyreek Hill, were two of the best receivers for matching up with zone, and both averaged more than three yards per route run against that defense, according to Pro Football Focus. Well, the Bills play zone at a top-10 rate, and I expect Waddle to see plenty of looks with Hill demanding so much attention. If the Dolphins are likely in a trailing game-script, all Dolphins wide receivers are live, including Hill (+155).
Bills RB James Cook went wild the last time these two squads matched up and while I do still expect him to get his fair share, sportsbooks know this because he’s -110 to score compared to Week 2 when he was +145. WR Amari Cooper scored in his first ga,e with the Bills, but I actually like rookie Keon Coleman (+200) to score again. He’s excelled against man coverage this year with two touchdowns and a 3.19 yards per route run, according to Pro Football Focus.
Verdict: Jaylen Waddle +230 | Keon Coleman +200
Chargers vs. Browns
Worlds are colliding on the defensive front. One team leads the NFL in zone defense (Chargers), while the other team (Browns) plays man defense at a top-four rate. If the Chargers are going to see a lot of man defense, then the touchdown bets start with WR Ladd McConkey (+250). He lines up in the slot over 60% of the time and leads the team with two receiving touchdowns against man with an elite 4.33 yards per route run when seeing that defense, according to Pro Football Focus. Look for him to stay hot in Week 9.
With QB Jameis Winston under center, we need to keep going back to WR Cedric Tillman. The second-year receiver had a bit of a coming out party last week against the Ravens with two touchdowns and has 21 targets over his last two games. He’s also been way more effective against zone defense than other receiving options like WR Jerry Jeudy or WR Elijah Moore.
I’ll always have a special place for TE David Njoku (+250), but Tillman at +300 is too hard to pass up.
Verdict: Ladd McConkey +250 | Cedric Tillman +300
Commanders vs. Giants
The Commanders pass game had no life in Week 8 until literally the last play of the game. The Hail Mary to win the game was profitable for us if you tailed WR Noah Brown at +500, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t acknowledge the insane luck involved. This week, Washington faces the Giants, a team they faced in Week 2 and somehow won without scoring a touchdown.
In the last matchup, we picked Luke McCaffrey and Wan’Dale Robinson and were rewarded with the latter at +300. Where do I see Robinson’s odds again this week? At +300.
Look, I get the love affair for WR Malik Nabers, but Robinson has 76 targets with 11 red-zone targets with at least one in seven of eight games this season. If you want to bank on Nabers again at +130, I wouldn’t be mad at it since the Commanders rank 28th in defensive DVOA against opposing WR1s with 10 touchdowns allowed to wide receivers. All Giants receivers are in play.
For Commanders, I considered TE Zach Ertz (+300) since the Giants rank 22nd in defensive DVOA against tight ends, but they’re one of four teams yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end and his target rate tends to pick up when the Commanders are trailing.
Instead, I think we get QB Jayden Daniels at +175. He hasn’t ran one in over the last four games but still leads the NFL in total scrambles (37) and has five red-zone carries inside the 5-yard line, which is second most among quarterbacks.
When these teams played in Week 2, Daniels had 10 carries for 44 yards and had +145 odds to score a touchdown. We'll take the better number.
Verdict: Jayden Daniels +175 | Wan’Dale Robinson +300
Bears vs. Cardinals
After expecting the Dolphins to throw all over the Cardinals last week, it was the run game that did most of the damage with three touchdowns allowed to running backs. That’s why Bears RB D’Andre Swift has +105 odds to score as he’s been on a tear with touchdowns in four straight games. While I expect him to continue to get his fair share, RB2 Roschon Johnson has four rushing touchdowns over the last four games, too — and he’s +320 to score!
That’s kind of the issue with the Bears is having too many good touchdown bet options because you don’t know for sure who’s week it’s going to be. I think if you take a Bears player this week, put your money on WR D.J. Moore at +210. He leads the team in red-zone targets, plays the most snaps and leads the team in target share and receiving touchdowns against zone coverage, which the Cardinals play at a top-10 rate. After not scoring in the last two games, I expect a bounce-back game in Arizona.
The Cardinals receiving duo of Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson could be in for a tough day against this Bears secondary. We cashed Noah Brown at +500 last week, but that was off a botched defense of a Hail Mary so I know when I got lucky.
This time, if we’re betting on Cardinals pass-catchers, we should keep going back to Wilson. He has nearly the same receiving metrics as Harrison against zone defenses, which Bears play zone at a top-six rate, and leads the team with six red-zone targets.
Verdict: D.J. Moore +210 | Michael Wilson +320
Jaguars vs. Eagles
I wrote this last week about A.J. Brown and while he didn’t score, it bears repeating since he’s facing the Jaguars:
“If you play man Ccoverage on the Eagles, A.J. Brown will destroy you. He's averaging an insane 5.2 yards per route run against man with two touchdowns and, despite missing three games, leads the team in target share (37.1%) and is second on the team in targets (13).”
Well, the Jaguars play man defense at a top-four rate in the NFL, rank 20th in defensive DVOA against opposing WR1s and have allowed 17 passing touchdowns. This matchup is made for Brown and at +120, I don’t mind drinking the juice.
If I’m betting a Jaguars player, I’d likely go with TE Evan Engram again at +300. We got him last week against the Packers and while the Eagles are much better against tight ends this year (fifth in defensive DVOA against TE), Engram profiles as more of a wide receiver than a tight end given the routes he runs and his ability to line up in the slot or outside.
If you’re sour on Engram like I am, another alternative would be WR Parker Washington at +250. He scored a returning touchdown this season, saw four targets in Week 8 and, for what it’s worth, a bit of a homecoming for him since he played in college at Penn State. (That’s how tough it is to pick a Jaguars player this week. We’re using homecoming trends.)
Verdict: A.J. Brown +120 | Evan Engram +300
Rams vs. Seahawks
The Rams passing options are fickle. In Week 8, it was Demarcus Robinson’s turn (two touchdowns in Week 8), then another week it’s the “Tutu Atwell Show” and he’s catching a long bomb. The Rams have had seven different receivers play over 90% of snaps in a given game with mixed results for touchdown bettors.
What we do know about the Rams is that we’ll likely see a heavy dose of RB Kyren Williams and WR Cooper Kupp. Williams is on an NFL Offensive Player of the Year-like tear with 10 touchdowns in nine games, and Kupp has 35 targets in 2 1/2 games played.
The cloud hanging over the offense is the status of WR Puka Nacua, who suffered another leg injury in practice on Thursday. At this point, you know Kupp will see a ton of targets and at +130, he’s the one you can trust. I would also be remiss if I didn’t mention this is a “revenge game” for TE Colby Parkinson (+370). Also, the Seahawks have allowed three touchdowns to tight ends over the last three games.
The Rams are last in the NFL in defensive DVOA against tight ends and have allowed four touchdowns to the position with three given up over the last three games. I think it would be best to sprinkle on TE A.J. Barner with Noah Fant out to see if the Rams continue to give up big plays over the middle.
Verdict: Cooper Kupp +130 & Colby Parkinson +320 | Sprinkle on A.J. Barner +500
Lions vs. Packers
On paper, these teams should combine for 70 points. But games aren’t played on paper and weather could impact this game significantly with wind gusts up to 17 mph and rain expected.
That's why running backs David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs and Josh Jacobs all have odds at +105 or lower to score. Given they combined for four touchdowns in Week 8, that checks out.
Given the weather, steamed odds and uncertainty at specific positions (Packers wide receivers), I reluctantly have to pass on this game. If I had to bet a Packers wide receiver, it’s Romeo Doubs at +235 because he leads the Packers in touchdowns against man defense and the Lions play man at the top rate in the NFL.
Verdict: Romeo Doubs +235
