The Action Labs Player Props tool uses Sean Koerner's expert projections to help bettors find value in the marketplace. This week, three pass catchers stood out to me when looking through The Oddsmaker's numbers.
Check out three edges below and subscribe to Action Labs to make your second half of the NFL season even more profitable.
Terry McLaurin
Under 70.5 Receiving Yards (-115, PointsBet)
McLaurin has gone under this number three times this season, but he’s already registered games of 73, 75 and 76 receiving yards. He’s pretty consistently around it.
With Taylor Heinicke under center, McLaurin has seen eight targets in each of the last two games, which saw him register receiving lines of 5-73-1 and 6-113-0. The latter of those performances was in his hometown of Indianapolis and saw him go comfortably over thanks to a huge 42-yard reception late in the game.
The Action Labs projections have McLaurin pegged for 59.6 receiving yards this week against Minnesota, though, providing a big edge for the 70.5 total at PointsBet or even the 68.5 at FanDuel.
Washington looks set to get Logan Thomas back this week, though, and Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel also are there to eat up looks. Antonio Gibson has also played a big role in the passing game of late, and that’ll continue with J.D. McKissic missing this game.
Robert Tonyan
Over 3.5 Receptions (+110, BetMGM)
There’s another clear edge here, with Action Labs projecting Tonyan for four catches on the dot. Getting plus money on this makes it an easy pick to make.
Tonyan has gone over this reception number three times in his last four games, all of which the Packers have lost.
There are a lot of uncertainties in the Packers offense right now, but Tonyan is the most certain part of the passing game. He and Allen Lazard, who’s proving to not be a No. 1 receiver, have the most rapport with Aaron Rodgers.
This matchup against the Lions is also a great one. Detroit ranks dead last in the NFL in DVOA against tight ends. Gilles Gallant likes Tonyan to score this week, and I’m right there with him, along with betting his receptions over.
K.J. Osborn
Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-110, BetMGM)
The Commanders have not been great against opposing passing attacks this season. Washington ranks 28th in DVOA against opposition receivers outside of the team’s top two (Minnesota’s top duo is well-established). Enter Osborn.
Osborn was solid last season but has taken on a much more significant role in the Vikings offense under head coach Kevin O’Connell. The acquisition of T.J. Hockenson is one that could eat into his target share, but probably not in the tight end’s debut.
Osborn has five targets on the dot in each of the Vikings’ last three games. He’s only gone over his total once, but five targets this week will surely get him over this number. Heck, four seems likely to do the trick, although I’d rather be safe than sorry because he is only averaging 8.8 yards per reception.
Osborn is projected for 30.5 receiving yards by Action Labs, creating a noteworthy edge worth taking action on.
