NFL Player Props: Saturday Best Bets | Wild Card Weekend
Our staff of betting analysts has you covered with eight NFL player props to bet on Saturday.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Browns vs. Texans
C.J. Stroud
Under 21.5 Completions (+100)
By Tony Sartori
There is no denying that C.J. Stroud has put together an excellent campaign, and he is going to be rewarded with the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award honors. However, this is still a rookie QB playing in his first career playoff game.
Not only that, but he is tasked with going against one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. Cleveland finished first in the league in yards allowed per game and passing yards allowed per game.
The Browns' underlying metrics were just as strong, ranking second in expected points contributed by passing defense. Fading Stroud's completion's prop is not an indictment on his ability, which is clearly great, but rather the circumstances of his first career playoff game against a top-two pass defense in the NFL.
Opposing starting QBs have recorded 21 or fewer completions in seven of their past 10 games against Cleveland. Meanwhile, Stroud has completed 21 or fewer completions in eight of his past 13 starts.
It's going to be hard to move the ball against the Browns, and quick drives or three-and-outs should work in our favor for this Under. I would play this line to -110.
Pick: C.J. Stroud Under 21.5 Completions (+100)
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Browns vs. Texans
Joe Flacco
Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+105)
By Ricky Henne
Joe Flacco has thrown multiple touchdown passes in all five games he’s played this year, and I’ll keep riding a trend like this until he gives me a reason not to.
Houston allowed the fewest passing touchdowns in the league this year (17) and gave up multiple TDs in only four games. However, Flacco torched the Texans with three TD passes in Week 16’s 36-22 win. Houston’s offense was decimated by injuries in that game, but the defense was mostly intact save for potential Rookie of the Year Will Anderson and linebacker Blake Cashman.
It’s also worth noting how unflappable Flacco’s been in road playoff games. In fact, his seven road playoff wins are tied with Tom Brady for most in NFL history.
This has been quite the profitable bet over the last month, and the market’s caught up as it’s gone from the +140 to +180 range most weeks to only marginal plus odds against the Texans. A handful of books even have slight juice, so make sure to shop around.
Pick: Joe Flacco Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+105)
Browns vs. Texans
David Njoku
Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
You know I will be rooting for Texans Island after backing them all season, but I can't make up my mind on a side here. I do think the value is on Houston with the public just a little too confident in Cleveland's fading defense and some small-sample Flacco success, but all those injury unknowns and the inexperience factor give me pause.
If I had to play a side, I'd lean Texans ML +115. Cleveland's defense hasn't faced a ton of great quarterbacks this season, and it allowed 27 to Trevor Lawrence, 28 and 31 to Lamar Jackson, and 36 to Matthew Stafford when it did. Stroud may not have officially played an NFL playoff game, but he was pretty special in a de facto playoff game last week and was electric in the College Football Playoff too. Houston has been a slow starter but great in the fourth quarter, so I might nibble a live ML at a long line if Cleveland's up early.
Instead, I'll mostly watch and enjoy the start of the playoffs, but I do want to get in on the Njoku prop for a line that looks 10 or 15 yards too low. This is a tasty matchup and Flacco's passing will either be the reason Cleveland is ahead or what they'll be doing even more of from behind.
Dolphins vs. Chiefs
Tyreek Hill
Under 86.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Everything surrounding the game environment in Kansas City on Saturday night is leading me to believe we will see a extreme rush-heavy game plan from Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins.
McDaniel will undoubtedly want to test the weakness of the Chiefs defense, and he should be able to do just that in a mostly neutral game script. This will lead to fewer pass attempts from Tua Tagovailoa, which is something we have already seen over the last six weeks due to the injuries of players on the Dolphins offense. Tagovailoa has had fewer than 28 pass attempts in three of his last six games.
Only three receivers eclipsed 80 yards receiving against the Chiefs this entire season. The Chiefs' defense was fifth in DVOA against the opposing team's WR1 specifically. In their early November meeting with the Dolphins, they held Tyreek Hill in check, limiting him to just 62 yards on 10 targets. As a result, Tagovailoa's completion percentage in that game was the second-lowest for any game Miami played this season.
This prop number is simply too high for a receiver who may not even be 100% healthy going up against Pro Bowl snub L'Jarius Sneed.
I'd play this under down to 82.5.
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Dolphins vs. Chiefs
Travis Kelce
Anytime Touchdown (+120)
By Sam Farley
It was Week 11 when Travis Kelce last found the end zone in what has been a poor year for the tight end. That changes Saturday night though against the Dolphins, who have given up seven touchdowns to tight ends this season.
Kelce has a history of performing when his team needs it with touchdowns in each of his past six playoff appearances. He's the man for the big occasion and will be there when Patrick Mahomes needs him most.
Pick: Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown (+120)
Dolphins vs. Chiefs
Mecole Hardman
Under 14.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
By Chris Raybon
Hardman went off for 77 receiving yards on 11 targets last week – but that came with all the starters resting. In Hardman’s five other games with the Chiefs, he has recorded receiving totals of six, 13, 10, 12 and zero on an average route participation rate of 21%.
I have Hardman projected for a median of one catch, and he's averaging 8.3 yards per reception at a target depth of 5.3 with the Chiefs, so there is an out even if he plays more than expected or catches multiple passes.
Pick: Mecole Hardman Under 14.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Dolphins vs. Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes
Under 246.5 Passing Yards (-114)
While this line may not seem that low, when you consider the weather, it's not nearly low enough. The temperature at Arrowhead is going to be below zero with sustained wind around 10-15 mph and gusts coming in around 25 mph. The wind chill is going to be around -20 to -30 throughout the game.
While cold temperatures generally don't have too much of an effect on the game, extremely cold temperature has a massive impact. The last time I can remember seeing a game like this was back in the 2016 playoffs between the Seahawks and Vikings, and there were less than 300 total passing yards in that entire game.
Offense will be tough to come by in this game, and most of it will come on the ground. Mahomes has hit the under at this number in five of the last eight games and I don't see him getting there in this spot.
I have Mahomes projected for almost 30 yards lower than this number, and I would hit it all the way to 225.5.
Dolphins vs. Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes
Anytime Touchdown (+500)
By Sam Farley
So bad have the Chiefs' struggles been that it almost feels like they've come into the playoffs under the radar.
With ice-cold conditions expected at Arrowhead and an offense that have been faltering in recent months, there's one bet I love for this game: Patrick Mahomes to score a touchdown.
Mahomes has five rushing touchdowns in 14 career postseason games, which is impressive given how he's been barely able to move due to injuries in some recent playoff games.
When the season is on the line, he has a history of taking the team on his back, and I think at +500 the price is too big when there's a reasonable chance of history repeating itself.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Anytime Touchdown (+500)
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