I've been waiting all week to see what the Baltimore Ravens' prop betting lines would look like with Joe Flacco's (hip) status in question against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Finally the team listed him as doubtful. But it's still a volatile situation, as we don't know whether it will be Lamar Jackson or Robert Griffin III is under center for the majority of the snaps.
DFS players are projecting a smash spot from Alex Collins in anticipation of a run-heavy game script. And while I think that's a fine angle — Collin's over/under is set at 55.5 rushing yards — the play that jumps out to me is Willie Snead.
Before we get into that, here are the records on the year. Check out even more Week 11 plays over at Bet the Prop.
- Props Tool Bet Quality 10 Record: 183-87 (66%)
- Article picks: 28-14 (64%)
- Bet the Prop Overall Record: 204-157 (57%)
Ravens WR Willie Snead
Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115 @ 5 Dimes)
Uncertainty surrounds the Ravens offense, and I get why people might shy away from this one altogether. But this number is just too tempting considering the plus matchup combined with Snead's steady role.
- Snead leads the team in targets and receptions over the past four games.
- His 36 targets (nine per game) over that period is tied for fourth-most among all wide receivers.
- He averages 50 yards per game and has gone over the 36.5-yard mark in eight of nine contests.
- Snead is a stellar 7-1 on the over for receiving-yards props this season.
- He's also Week 11's No. 4 buy-low WR on Josh Hermsmeyer's predictive Air Yards model.
Even if the Ravens see a significant drop from their league-leading 71 plays per game, the Bengals are still generous enough to allow Snead to get there. Cincinnati has been slaughtered by slot defenders, giving up more than 150 yards per game to the position.
With a projection of 46.8 yards, this is one of the best bets in our props tool for Week 11. Sean Koerner is also projecting 4.5 catches for Snead, which makes the over on 3.5 receptions worth a long look as well.
Jaguars TE James O'Shaughnessy
Over 2.5 Receptions (-150 @ 5 Dimes)
In his first game back from a hip injury last week, O'Shaughnessy played a prominent role with the Jaguars in catchup mode. His six targets were tied for second on the team, while his five catches were tied for first.
Now he faces a Steelers defense that has tightened up coverage on the back end but is still vulnerable to tight ends. Pittsburgh gives up the second-most receptions (6.3 per game) and seventh-most yards (69.2 per game).
- The Steelers have surrendered three or more receptions to a tight end in eight of their nine games.
- Overall, 10 different tight ends have posted at least three catches against the Steelers.
Before O'Shaughnessy even missed time, he had three catches each in Weeks 5 and 6. And with the Steelers' offense firing and rush defense dominating, the Jaguars project to be playing from behind once again.
We're already paying a lot of vig here, so I wouldn't be willing to pay more. But if the line moves to 3.0 receptions, I'd play it at -115.
Jaguars WR Keelan Cole
Under 34.5 Receiving Yards (-114 @ Sportsbook.com)
The roles of O'Shaughnessy and other Jaguars' pass-catchers have grown in recent weeks, mostly at the expense of Cole.
After playing on 55.7% of team snaps through the first seven, the sophomore receiver has played on only 15% and 22% of snaps over the past two games.
Rookie DJ Chark appears to have quietly won the No. 3 WR job. After not being on the field for more than 30% of the time through seven weeks, he was on for 48% and 44% in the team's two most recent contests.
Cole bottomed out at zero targets last week, and his best receiving total over his past three games is 21 yards.
Koerner projects Cole to go for 27.5 yards, giving this a perfect 10 rating in the props tool. I'd play this number down to 29.5, and at the current line, I'd be willing to pay juice up to -130.
