On the Fantasy Flex podcast, NFL analysts Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon gave out their favorite players to watch for each game on the slate. These are players worth targeting not just in DFS, but also in the Anytime Touchdown market.
For the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs, Koerner and Raybon alternated giving out players for all four games, and what we wound up with were two players to bet in each Divisional Round game this weekend.
NFL Player Props: Saturday Divisional Round Touchdown Picks
As a reminder, Anytime Touchdown markets are volatile and odds are constantly on the move. Therefore, it's important to check out our NFL Prop Projections page before making your bets. Our NFL prop projections are powered by Koerner, the most accurate fantasy football ranker in the industry in 2023 (and 2015-2017, for that matter). There, you can see the best odds for each player as well as the edge based on our projections against the market.
As a reminder, you can catch Fantasy Flex all season long and throughout the playoffs on the Action App or wherever you find your podcasts, and listen to the latest episode below.
Here are Koerner's and Raybon's favorite picks for Saturday's NFL playoff games: Texans vs. Chiefs and Commanders vs. Lions.
  |   |
Texans vs. Chiefs
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -115 | 41.5 -108o / -112u | +350 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -105 | 41.5 -108o / -112u | -455 |
Dalton Schultz
Chris Raybon: Dalton Schultz has been trending up just since the start of this week. First, we saw Diontae Johnson get released. Then, Cade Stover went on injured reserve, and he was the No. 2 tight end and caught four passes in the Wild Card Round against the Chargers.
When Stover missed two other games earlier this season, Schultz's route participation rate hit 90%. Usually he's in the high-70s and maybe low-80s and blocks a little bit more, but when Stover is out he's just a clear receiver.
Schultz leads the team in red zone routes run and is second in red zone targets behind Nico Collins.
Plus, we know Kansas City is going to play a lot of man coverage and this Texans receiving corp is just begging for them to play man coverage. Schultz is the only healthy Texan (Tank Dell is the other one) with multiple receiving touchdowns against man coverage this year.
Other than Collins, Schultz is really the only receiver you can trust on Houston against man coverage, and I think he's going to see some time matched up against linebackers while they focus on Collins and the other receivers.
Xavier Worthy
Chris Raybon: I have Xavier Worthy's odds and Travis Kelce's odds flip-flopped compared to the market, which has Kelce around +150 and Worthy around +200.
I think there's going to be some Kelce inflation because of all the stats surrounding his past playoff performances, so I'm going to take the value here with Worthy, who has just been on a tear to close the season.
Everyone's been wondering about the Kansas City pass-catchers and if we're going to see more of DeAndre Hopkins or more of Hollywood Brown. I think you're going to see a ton of Xavier Worthy.
He's caught four or more passes in seven straight games, including Week 18 when Patrick Mahomes didn't play. The Texans are averaging the highest touchdown rate in the league to slot receivers, and Worthy played a season-high 26 snaps out of the slot against Houston in Week 16.
He leads the team in both total touchdowns and receiving touchdowns, and he's actually second on the team to Kareem Hunt in rushing touchdowns.
| |
Commanders vs. Lions
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -108 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +360 |
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -112 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -470 |
Dyami Brown
Sean Koerner: Dyami Brown is coming off his best game of the season with five catches for 89 yards and a touchdown last week against Tampa Bay. I think he keeps it rolling here against the Lions in what should be a shootout.
The Commanders are expected to trail in this game at a 27% higher rate than their season average. So not only is Jayden Daniels going to need to drop back to pass more in general, we're going to probably see more three-receiver sets, too, which could lead to an increase in snaps for Brown.
The Lions use man coverage at the highest rate in the league and that's where Brown has really thrived. He's averaging 2.2 yards per route run against man coverage, which leads the team — even more than Terry McLaurin — and he sees more passes down the field, too, as 15% of his targets are 20-plus yards down field, ahead of everyone but McLaurin.
He has multiple ways to get there, as he's also been seeing some designed rush attempts to close the season. He had three carries for 26 yards over the final five games. That's just an additional way for him to potentially score when they get into the red zone.
Brock Wright
Sean Koerner: Do I think Brock Wright is going to score a touchdown? Eh, probably not. But do I think he should be 12-1 to score a touchdown? No way in hell.
Wright has nine touchdowns in 45 career games, so about a touchdown every five games, which means we're getting some value here.
He doesn't catch many passes but when he does, they tend to be in the red zone. He has two touchdowns this year and on one of them, he was clearly the first read.
Plus, since this is the playoff, we could see Ben Johnson get more creative in these red zone opportunities where we could see players like Wright or Dan Skipper teed up in the red zone.
One last thing: Randomly, the Commanders have given up a lot of touchdowns to backup tight ends, with names such as Jordan Akins, Chris Manhertz, Luke Schoonmaker, Foster Moreau, and even Kyle Pitts scored against them.
Wright is a pretty smart dart throw for the Lions.
