Bills vs. Chiefs Odds, Picks, Predictions: How Experts Are Betting Sunday’s Divisional Round NFL Playoff Game

Sportsbooks are expecting the Bills and Chiefs to close out the Divisional Round of the 2022 NFL playoffs with fireworks, but is the 54-point total high enough? One of our experts doesn't think so, but that's not the only way we're betting this primetime showdown.

With a short spread, our experts are split on how to bet it. They make the case for both sides below, followed by more bets for Sunday night's matchup.

Bills vs. Chiefs Picks

Bills Spread

written by Chris Raybon

In what may very well be the Game of the Year, choosing a side to bet comes down to one simple fact for me: Both of these teams have an elite offense, but only one of them has an elite defense.

Here are how these teams stack up in Football Outsiders' offensive and defensive DVOA (including postseason):

• Offense: Chiefs third; Bills fifth
• Defense: Bills first; Chiefs 25th

The Chiefs defense is undoubtedly better than that ranking since making some key personnel changes, namely acquiring Melvin Ingram, which allowed Chris Jones to kick back inside where he is most effective. They also limited the snaps of Daniel Sorenson, who is a liability in coverage.

Still, it’s hard to argue that the Chiefs defense is anything other than the weakest unit in this game. Even as they’ve improved, they’ve had some alarming performances since their bye, allowing 404 yards to the Broncos, 428 to the Chargers, and 475 to the Bengals.

In these teams' first matchup, Josh Allen averaged 12.1 yards per attempt and 21.0 yards per completion. It also doesn’t help that the Chiefs have been one of the worst teams at defending quarterback runs, allowing a league-high seven rushing scores to opposing passers (including one to Allen) during the regular season.

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On the other side of the ball, the Bills are better equipped than almost any team to slow down the Chiefs. The Bills lead the league in pressure rate at 30.8% while blitzing only 26.0% of the time, with their +4.8% differential between pressure rate and blitz rate ranking third-best in the league and top among playoff teams remaining in the Divisional Round.

Here are Patrick Mahomes’ numbers when kept clean compared to under pressure:

• Kept clean: 75.4% cmp, 7.7 YPA, 109.4 rating
• Under pressure: 42.3% cmp, 6.6 YPA, 69.8 rating

Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league for a reason, and he and Andy Reid will surely come with a strong plan to counter the Bills pressure, but they have a lot of adjustments to make after Mahomes was held to 5.0 yards per attempt and 8.2 yards per completion in the first matchup.

The Chiefs may have home-field advantage over the Bills for this game, but I’m not sure the Chiefs should still be considered atop the AFC hierarchy. Here’s how the Chiefs cumulatively fared against the Bills, Titans and Bengals, i.e. the other three AFC teams that made it to the Divisional Round.

• Record: 0-3
• Avg. point differential: -15.0
• Avg total yardage differential: -46.7

Give me the points.

Chiefs Spread

written by Brandon Anderson

Oh, baby — the AFC Championship Game comes a week early.

This is the matchup the Bills built their roster around, and it’s the fourth time they'll face the Chiefs in two seasons, but this feels like the most evenly-matched meeting between these teams yet. Josh Allen has closed ground on Patrick Mahomes, and the Bills defense has been the best in the NFL while the Chiefs offense has taken its lumps.

Earlier this season, Buffalo was legitimately better than Kansas City. Now? I’m not so sure.

The defenses are trending in opposite directions. Buffalo smashed New England, but the Bills run defense ranks 16th in DVOA over the last eight weeks and the overall defense has been more great than elite. And the Chiefs defense is night and day from that early matchup — they rank 10th in DVOA over the past eight weeks, top-11 against both the run and the pass, after an ugly 31st the first 10 weeks. The unit has also been much better at home.

Still, both of these offenses will move the ball and score.

The Chiefs have the No. 1 pass DVOA over the last eight weeks after ranking just 15th the first 10 games. And suddenly, the Bills rank No. 1 in rushing DVOA over the same stretch after starting 25th the first 10 games, and that run game could be big as they try to keep Mahomes on the sidelines.

This should be a close, great game. And when it’s close, I inevitably come back to the quarterback and the coaching. And as awesome as Allen, Sean McDermott and Brian Daboll have been, I still give the edge to the Chiefs.

This is Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, at home, with the season on the line. And when Mahomes is a 3-point favorite or shorter (including an underdog), the Chiefs are 14-4-1 (78%) against the spread (ATS), per our Action Labs data.

Maybe I’m putting too much trust in the past, but I know what the Chiefs are, and I know what Mahomes can do. If I’m going down with the ship, the Chiefs are a ship worth riding all the way to the bottom.

Over

written by Raheem Palmer

Josh Allen and the Bills are coming off arguably one of the greatest performances in their history: A 47-17 destruction of Bill Belichick's Patriots in a game in which they never punted, scoring on all seven drives. Now Bills-Chiefs is the weekend's most intriguing matchup as neither one of these teams should have any answer for the other defensively.

While the Bills are likely to come back down to Earth after last week, the Chiefs had no answers for this offense the last time these two teams played. The Bills put up 38 points as Allen completed 15-of-26 passes for 315 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing 11 times for 56 yards and a touchdown.

At the time, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense were in the midst of a Super Bowl hangover, putting up just 20 points with Mahomes completing 33-of-54 passes for 272 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. But I'm expecting much more success from the Chiefs offense in the rematch given the adjustments they made midseason. They'll also be facing a Bills unit without All-Pro cornerback Tre'Davious White.

The last game between these two hit 58 points, and that's despite a halftime delay that threw off the rhythm for both offenses. I'll play the over 54 in what should be an explosive, high-scoring game (shop for the best real-time line here).

Mecole Hardman Under 30.5 Rec Yards

written by Sean Koerner

Hardman saw a boost in usage over the past couple games with Tyreek Hill injured, but I expect Hardman's routes run to drop back into the 40-50% range with Hill closer to 100%. It’s also going to be difficult for Hardman to clear this total if his low aDot trend continues (2.7 and 1.0 over past two games).

I'm projecting Hardman for closer to 25.5 yards, but every yard in this range is worth 5-8%, so be sure to shop for the best number.

I would only bet it down to 30.5 yards.