NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions
Our Director of Predictive Analytics reveals the biggest edges for Sunday's NFL Divisional Round playoff games based on his power ratings (which help power our NFL PRO Projections). He has a 535-422-9 (55%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action App, where you can follow all of his picks.
Bills +1.5 at Chiefs
6:30 p.m. ET kickoff
I was already high on the Bills heading into the playoffs — hence why I took Devin Singletary 14/1 to lead in playoff rushing yards — so this isn’t me overreacting to their perfect performance last week. Buffalo has 13.9 expected wins in my expected wins model (by far the most in league).
The Bills also spent their offseason building their team to beat this Chiefs squad after Kansas City defeated them 38-24 in last season’s AFC Championship Game, addressing their defensive line in the first two rounds of the 2021 NFL Draft.
They lead the league in QB pressure rate (30.8%), while only blitzing at a league-average rate (26%). That will be one of the many factors that allows this Bills team to finally get past the Chiefs and advance to the AFC Championship Game. I would only play this at +1.5 or better.
Bet to: +1.5
Rams-Bucs Under 48
3:30 p.m. ET kickoff
When these teams met in Week 3, the total was 55, and the over hit with the Bucs winning 34-24. But there have been a handful of changes since then that have lowered the scoring environment for this matchup.
The Rams suffered a huge loss with left tackle Andrew Whitworth expected to miss with ankle and knee injuries. Their offense is going to struggle running the ball as a result — they’ve run the ball at the eighth-highest rate over the past five weeks, for context — and Matthew Stafford likely won’t have enough time in the pocket to air it out, possibly opting for more throws underneath.
The Bucs offense has changed significantly since that first meeting as they’re now without Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown. Right tackle Tristan Wirfs and center Ryan Jensen are questionable, and even if either suit up, they’re likely to be playing at less than 100%. I’m expecting Tom Brady to run a similar quick-hitting passing attack — his 2.17 time to throw last week was by far the lowest — and lean on the running game with Leonard Fournette expected back.
I’m projecting this closer to 46.5 and would bet it down to 47.5 (check real-time NFL odds here).
Bet to: 47.5
