NFL Playoff Picture: 7 Long-Shot Parlays for Week 18
It's Week 18, which means we've reached the end of the NFL season and there are approximately a kajillion possible playoff scenarios filtering through our brains as we prepare for one last week of regular-season games.
The fun of all these postseason scenarios is that there's obviously a huge amount of correlation on some of them, as fans keep one eye on their own team while also rooting for three or four other specific outcomes in games on other channels.
For bettors, correlation creates opportunity.
When the outcome of one bet specifically changes motivations and odds for another bet, we can parlay those results together to create specific bets — perhaps for one particularly fun outcome we want to root for, or maybe to nudge the odds in our favor on a long-shot parlay.
Below are seven correlated long-shot Week 18 parlays. They're not all going to hit — there's a very good chance none of them do — and you should not bet full units on any of these. But sprinkling a quarter or tenth unit, just to live a little and have some fun? Everyone enjoys a little $5 pizza bet now and then.
All odds are approximate and will vary from book to book as the week progresses, so shop around and find the best value.
Ready to have some fun?
NFL Week 18 odds listed below via Tuesday at 5:30 p.m. ET.
1. Eagles Steal the NFC East Crown (+932)
Scenario: Eagles W + Cowboys L
Don't worry, these will get more interesting.
The Eagles lost control of the division with their shocking upset loss to the Cardinals, but they can still win it back with a win over the Giants and a Dallas loss to Washington.
That's easy enough, but we're including it here as an example to remind you there's more than one way to skin a cat.
FanDuel offers +750 on a Philadelphia division ticket right now. But if you simply parlay an Eagles win and a Commanders win at FanDuel, you get +932 odds instead. That's an extra free $1.82 paid out on every dollar you bet — for the exact same bet.
Shop around and see what your available books offer.
FanDuel is offering +730 for a Falcons division ticket. That's actually better than the +614 price you'd get parlaying Atlanta's only route, which is a Falcons win and a Bucs loss. But if you're playing the Saints, you'll want to go the other way — it's +403 at PointsBet for a Saints win and Bucs loss parlay vs. +350 for just the division ticket.
Our Nick Giffen spotted another inconsistency. The Bills are eliminated with a Steelers win, a Jaguars win, any result but a tie in the Colts/Texans game, and a Bills loss. Parlaying those results together (other than the non-tie) gets you a +426 ticket at FanDuel, but you can just bet Buffalo to miss the playoffs as its own +600 ticket at Caesars or BetMGM.
Always shop around and find the best price available — sometimes even at the same book! Here's that Eagles division-winning parlay.
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2. Vikings Sneak Into the Playoffs After All (+3775)
Scenario: Vikings W + Packers L + Seahawks L + (either a Bucs or Saints L)
The NFL ended its 2023 calendar year with a Viking funeral live on NBC, but Minnesota isn't totally dead.
The Vikings need to beat the Lions, but Detroit has very little to play for and could end up resting its players for a playoff game the following week. Can you play quarterback? Great news, you're starting for Minnesota on Sunday!
Now, Minnesota will also need some help, and the catch here is that the Vikings have two options. Seattle and Green Bay need to lose, but from there, the Vikings can get either a Saints or Bucs loss (or both).
Minnesota is +2500 at DraftKings to make the postseason. You could just play that.
Or you could choose one of the two paths and go for a better payout. A Saints loss is more likely, given that the Bucs are playing the Panthers, but adding a Saints loss to the other three results only gets us to +2974 at FanDuel. That's not enough extra payout for what we're sacrificing with the Bucs out.
Shall we go the other way?
Give us a Tampa Bay loss to Carolina as Bryce Young finally does something worthwhile to send his team into an offseason of hope. Add in a Vikings win, plus Seattle and Green Bay losses, and voila: +3775 at FanDuel for a Vikings playoff ticket.
3. Cowboys Clinch the NFC East With Another Eagles Loss (+1916)
Scenario: Eagles L + Cowboys L
Sorry in advance, Philadelphia fans (narrator: he wasn't).
The Eagles are sputtering to the finish line. They barely beat the Giants on Christmas weekend, then lost to the Cardinals. If Philly loses again to the Giants, the Cowboys will win the division regardless of their own game.
Well, what if Philadelphia just totally loses the rope and it's clear the Eagles are going to lose? Wouldn't Dallas have some motivation to just call off the dogs itself and go ahead and rest up for a playoff game the following weekend?
All the better that gifting Washington a win likely drops the Commanders from the No. 2 draft pick and costs a division rival a potential franchise QB.
An Eagles loss and a then-meaningless Cowboys loss parlay at +1916 at FanDuel.
You can juice this one even further if you want. Technically the Cowboys would still be incentivized to win if the Lions won earlier in the day since Dallas would otherwise drop to the 3-seed behind Detroit, so you could add a Minnesota ML.
I like a different route. For the Cowboys to be certain they can cut bait on their own game, they'd probably need to know for certain that the Eagles are losing — because the Giants are up big and that game is on lock. A Cowboys loss and a Giants -9.5 alternate line get us to +4870 instead.
Here are just the two losses:
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4. Packers Back Into the Playoffs — With a Loss! (+2045)
Scenario: Packers L + Vikings L + Seahawks L + (Bucs or Saints L)
Win and Green Bay is in the playoffs, but the Packers can also get in with a loss if they get enough help.
That starts with a Vikings loss earlier in the day, plus a loss by either the Bucs or Saints. Again, a New Orleans loss seems much more likely here since Atlanta is still alive for the postseason, so we'll go with an Atlanta ML here.
Those two results would be locked before the Packers even kick off. So if the Vikings and Saints both lose early, Green Bay would know that it's in the postseason with either a win or a Seahawks loss. Now we've just created the Eagles-Cowboys scenario in No. 3 above. Seattle falls behind those feisty Cardinals, Green Bay's heading to the playoffs anyway, and they back into the playoffs with a meaningless loss.
Packers, Vikings, Saints, and Seahawks losses parlay together at +2045, below.
Similar to the Giants, we might need a big, comfortable Cardinals win for this scenario to hit on purpose. Swapping out Arizona ML for Arizona -9.5 instead jumps our odds to +5123 at FanDuel.
5. Steelers Back Door into the Playoffs with a Meaningless Denver Win (+1539)
Scenario: Steelers L + Jaguars L + (Texans/Colts do not tie)
There's no particular correlation boost here, but if you just want to root for chaos and hope the NFL gets egg all over its face, this one is for you.
Here's the scenario. The Steelers lose to the Ravens backups on Saturday afternoon. The Colts and Texans play Saturday night and do not tie. The Jaguars lose early Sunday.
If all of that happens, the Colts-Texans winner takes the AFC South division, the Bills get a playoff berth as the 6-seed, and we're left with Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and one of Indy or Houston all tied at 9-8 for the final AFC berth.
So how do we break the tie?
With an otherwise meaningless Broncos-Raiders late afternoon game, of course!
A Broncos win would add Denver to the morass of 9-8 teams and jumble up the complex tiebreaker system. Denver can't win the tie — the Broncos are already eliminated — but a Broncos win Sunday would give the four-way tie to Pittsburgh. If the Raiders win instead, the tiebreak scenario changes and Jacksonville wins the three-way tie.
Remember, everything else is already done at this point. Pittsburgh, Houston, and Indy all play Saturday, and Jacksonville plays early Sunday. If the Steelers and Jaguars lose and the other game doesn't tie, all AFC eyes will be on a completely irrelevant, utterly meaningless Broncos-Raiders game with both teams already in 1-2-3 Cancun mode determining the final AFC playoff spot.
Here's a ticket for a Steelers backdoor berth: Pittsburgh and Jacksonville losses with a Denver win that sends the Steelers dancing at +1539.
6. Bills Have Already Clinched, Call Off the Dogs in Miami, Set Up Bills-Dolphins Rematch (+742)
Scenario: Steelers L + Jaguars W + (Texans/Colts do not tie) + Bills L
The Bills are the one NFL team with the most at stake this weekend.
Win, and Buffalo redeems its season with an AFC East crown and the 2-seed. Lose and the Bills drop to the 6-seed, the 7-seed, or even out of the playoffs altogether.
Well, Buffalo plays the regular season finale on Sunday night, which means that the Bills will be down to two scenarios by kickoff. The winning scenario is the same either way, but they'll know just how much a loss hurts them.
If Pittsburgh loses Saturday and Jacksonville wins early Sunday, that knocks the Steelers out, clinches the division for Jacksonville, and clinches playoff berths for both Buffalo and whoever won the Colts-Texans game on Saturday night.
Buffalo will still be motivated to win Sunday night, to win the division title and earn a couple of home playoff games. But a loss is no longer as damaging since the Bills would still be the 7-seed in that scenario — and play a rematch of its Week 18 game right back in Miami the following weekend.
What if Miami jumps out to a big early lead? If Buffalo thinks the hill is too steep to climb, the Bills could choose to call off the dogs in the second half, get some rest for Josh Allen and others, and not show too much of its hand from a strategic standpoint against a team it will be playing seven days later.
A Steelers loss, Jaguars win, and Bills loss parlay at +742 at FanDuel, below.
This scenario is expecting a big Miami win, big enough for Buffalo to call off the dogs. Replace Miami ML with Dolphins -13.5 on an alternate line and we leap to +3087 instead. Giddyup.
Of course, there's one even juicier Sunday Night Football scenario…
7. Bills Sneak Into the Playoffs With a Tie vs. Dolphins (+15855)
Scenario: Steelers W + Jaguars W + (Texans/Colts do not tie) + Bills TIE
We almost got this exact scenario two years ago. Sunday night, Week 18, Chargers-Raiders in the regular season finale. Win and the Chargers were into the playoffs, lose and they were out… but a tie put LA in, too.
The game went to overtime. The Raiders went ahead on a field goal, but the Chargers got into scoring position and made their own field goal. You may recall what happened from there. The Raiders looked content enough to just run the ball up the middle, run the clock out, and get the Chargers their playoff berth, but LA overplayed its hand, couldn't stop a few simple runs, and the Raiders kicked a walk-off field goal with 0:00 on the clock to knock the Chargers out.
Fast forward to Sunday night. If the Steelers win Saturday and the Jaguars win early Sunday, plus anything other than a Colts-Texans tie, then that sets up the doomsday scenario for Buffalo.
Win and the Bills are the 2-seed as the AFC East champs. Lose and the Bills are out of the postseason altogether.
You can already taste the tension late in a close game with everything on the line for Buffalo.
But there's one other scenario, and this time, it's a third option. Tie on Sunday night and Buffalo cedes the division but still sneaks into the playoffs as the 6-seed, knocking the Steelers out in that scenario.
It sounds crazy, but at some point, Buffalo would actually be motivated to play not to lose, rather than playing to win.
Tie game, headed to overtime, and that 10-minute clock is ticking down.
Does Buffalo go for broke and play for the win but risk giving Miami a chance to beat them and knock them out? Or do the Bills swallow hard, run up the middle a few times, cede the division to the Dolphins, and take the tie and keep their season alive?
Not every book offers tying outcomes, and remember, a tie is only still relevant for Buffalo if everything else happens first.
At DraftKings, we can bet on a Steelers win, a Jaguars win, and a Buffalo-Miami tie (+7000 on its own) for a whopping +15855 payout.
Shall we dance?
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