The first big domino of the NFL playoff picture could fall as soon as Monday night, because if the Cardinals win, they'll clinch the first berth of 2021 — and the team's first since the 2015 season. They would also effectively lock in the NFC West with a win, as the Cardinals (10-2) would hold a three-game lead and tiebreaker over the second-place Rams (8-4), meaning the only way Arizona loses the division is if it loses out and Los Angeles wins out.
But what happens if the Cardinals lose to the Rams?
Arizona's chances of winning the division would fall to 90% with a loss (compared to 99.9% chance with a win) based on our expert's model. But mostly, it would hurt the Cardinals' projected chances of securing the NFC's 1-seed.
With a win, they would have the highest chance of securing the top seed at 54.3% compared to the Packers at 21.4% and the Bucs at 18.1%. But with a loss, our expert's model would give the Cardinals only a 15.2% chance, which would be third to the Packers at 39.3% and Bucs at 34.8%.
As for the Rams, a win would give them a 9.7% chance of winning the division — still a longshot, sure, but notably better than the near 0% chance they'd have with a loss. A win would also give them a 97% chance of making the postseason compared to the 88% chance a loss would bring.
Now that we know what's at stake on Monday night, let's quickly run through the current brackets in each division, followed by the projected chances of making the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl for every team still in the hunt.
Note: All projections are based on the model of Travis Reed, one of the six experts whose models power our NFL PRO Projections, and factor in all Week 14 results apart from Monday Night Football.
NFL Playoff Picture
NFL Playoff Predictions
| Team | To Make Playoffs | To Win Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | 100.00% | 14.65% |
| Packers | 100.00% | 8.13% |
| Bucs | 100.00% | 11.72% |
| Cowboys | 99.96% | 6.69% |
| Patriots | 99.63% | 21.01% |
| Titans | 99.50% | 5.70% |
| Chiefs | 92.62% | 8.25% |
| Rams | 91.57% | 3.09% |
| Chargers | 81.64% | 1.92% |
| Bills | 74.40% | 8.80% |
| Ravens | 70.18% | 99.50% |
| 49ers | 69.79% | 1.24% |
| Colts | 64.30% | 2.64% |
| Bengals | 42.73% | 1.46% |
| Eagles | 41.27% | 0.74% |
| Vikings | 34.60% | 0.44% |
| Browns | 30.91% | 0.36% |
| Saints | 30.77% | 0.42% |
| Broncos | 28.95% | 0.71% |
| WFT | 19.55% | 0.08% |
| Steelers | 8.87% | 0.07% |
| Falcons | 7.79% | 0.02% |
| Dolphins | 4.26% | 0.04% |
| Seahawks | 3.64% | 0.08% |
| Raiders | 2.01% | 0.00% |
| Giants | 0.50% | 0.00% |
| Panthers | 0.45% | 0.01% |
| Bears | 0.11% | 0.00% |
