NFL Playoff Picture, Brackets: Browns vs. Packers, Colts vs. Cardinals on Christmas Day Will Sway Playoff Odds

NFL Playoff Scenarios Before Christmas Day Games

Two massive Christmas Day games will determine the course of the AFC and NFC playoff picture.

The Browns will visit the Packers for the afternoon slot while the Colts play the Cardinals for the night cap.

If the Browns lose, they're effectively eliminated from playoff contention. The Browns' odds to make the playoffs are just 13% as of Saturday morning and they have a gauntlet to finish off the season. Besides playing at Green Bay, they need to win at the Pittsburgh Steelers and at home against the AFC North-leading Cincinnati Bengals.

The Packers must win out in order to guarantee themselves the No. 1 seed in the NFC and a first-round bye.

Beyond that, Aaron Rodgers is in poll position to nab back-to-back MVPs — and he's going to keep his foot on the pedal as a result. Another MVP will undoubtedly cement his status as a top-five quarterback of all-time.

The Packers play the Browns, at the Vikings and host the Lions to close out the season. They have a roughly 68% chance of locking down the No. 1 seed, according to The Action Network's Travis Reed's model. Any Cowboys or Bucs loss would drastically improve their chances at the No. 1 seed.

Meanwhile, a Colts win would all but guarantee them a playoff spot. They currently have an 87% chance to make the playoffs, according to The Action Network's model, but a win would launch them into the mid-90s.

A Titans win on Thursday Night Football will likely prevent the Colts from hosting a playoff game, though. Tennessee's come-from-behind victory over the San Francisco 49ers moved the Titans' odds to win the AFC South to 97.9%, according to the model.

The Titans had been down 10-0 at halftime before storming back in the second half to win 20-17.

The Tennessee Titans increased their odds of earning the AFC's top seed to 29.7% with the upset win, too. That's good for second-best in the AFC behind the Chiefs, who have a roughly 37% chance. The Patriots are a close third at 29%.

The 49ers saw their odds to make the playoffs drop from about 78% to 65% as a result of the loss. They're currently slotted in the No. 6 seed in the NFC.

The Cardinals — who play the Colts on Christmas Day — have faltered in recent weeks, losing two straight, including an embarrassing 30-12 loss to the league-worst Detroit Lions.

While Arizona had a solid chance at the No. 1 seed earlier this month, they're fighting for the division lead right now. The Cardinals are tied with the Los Angeles Rams atop the NFC West but hold the tiebreaker. Winning out would guarantee them a home playoff game.

The Cardinals face off against the Colts, Cowboys and Seahawks to close out the season. It's a difficult schedule. Meanwhile, the Rams have the Vikings, Ravens and 49ers ahead of them.

For reference, DraftKings is giving the Cardinals -160 odds to win the division while the Rams are +135.

Before last week's loss to the Lions, the Cardinals had been -650 favorites while the Rams were +550 underdogs.

Read more below for the latest playoff brackets and scenarios for Week 16 in both the AFC and NFC.

Updated AFC Playoff Bracket

The Titans' win ties them with the Chiefs for 10 wins, the most in the AFC. Tennessee now has a 29.7% chance at earning the top seed, according to Reed's simulations. The Chiefs have the best projection at 36.8%. New England is up there as well at 29% and a home game against the Buffalo Bills as a small favorite.

Although the Bills are underdogs this week, our simulations still give them an 81% chance at making the playoffs. Baltimore, currently on the outside looking in, has a 50% chance.

The Bengals are technically still alive for the top spot in the AFC, but their most-likely playoff seed is No. 4 (30.78%), according to our own Travis Reed's projections.

NFC Playoff Bracket

The Packers and Cowboys are already in, while the Bucs, Cardinals and Rams are essentially locks, too.

San Francisco kept the No. 6 slot after losing to Tennessee, but its postseason chances dropped from 78% to 65%.

Among the trio of 7-7 teams — the Vikings, Eagles and Saints — Reed has New Orleans with the best shot of clinching a berth. However, the Saints will now be underdogs on Monday Night Football against the Miami Dolphins after Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemien tested positive for COVID-19. The team will now start Ian Book at quarterback unless one of the other quarterbacks clears protocol.

In fact, here's the outlook for all 32 teams.

Chances to Make Postseason Entering Week 16

*Per Travis Reed's NFL simulations

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