We have incredible games on tap for the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs this weekend, with all four contests carrying a 5.5-point or lower point spread.
We are again treated to a fantastic matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers. The 49ers have proven to be a stylistic foil to the Packers, bringing a physical run-heavy attack that is difficult to stop in cold weather playoff games. Does Green Bay finally have the game plan to counter San Francisco's physicality after earning a bye as the NFC's 1-seed?
Let's take a look at my favorite NFL player props for a fantastic Saturday night matchup game between the Packers and 49ers at Lambeau Field.
Find a complete breakdown of the game here.
What are player props? They're bets on a player's statistical outcome. Learn more here.
NFL Props: 49ers vs. Packers
Deebo Samuel Under 40.5 Rushing Yards (BetMGM)
Deebo Samuel is coming off a huge 72-yard rushing performance in San Francisco's 23-17 playoff win at Dallas. That makes for the perfect opportunity to fade his inflated rushing yardage prop.
Samuel's rushing total has become a popular bet in the gambling world. It's rare to see a wide receiver receiving such high volume as a runner. However, the constant highlights of Samuel's explosive runs and rushing touchdowns have masked his true rushing production.
Samuel failed to beat this prop in four of the last five regular-season games despite receiving 26 rushing carries during that span. His 81.4% snap share ranked only 29th this season among all wideouts.
He is a nice change-of-pace rushing option but one that Green Bay will be prepared to face. Coming off a huge game last week, it's hard to envision a situation in which his usage fools the Packers.
We project Samuel for 35 rushing yards, five yards below this total. This is a 7-rated prop by our Director of Predictive Analytics Sean Koerner on our Action Labs Player Prop Tool.
Ignore recency bias — fade Samuel's rushing total in the cold weather at Lambeau Field.
Davante Adams Under 95.5 Receiving Yards (PointsBet)
The center of San Francisco's defensive focus must be on All-Pro wideout Davante Adams, who ranked second among all wide receivers in targets (169) and receptions (123), as well as third in receiving yards (1,553) during the regular season.
Yet even with all of his production, Adams has topped this number in only half of his games.
Despite receiving 25 combined targets in the Packers' two playoff games last season, he averaged only 66.5 receiving yards in those two contests. Adams did tally 138 receiving yards in the Packers' 37-20 NFC Championship Game loss at San Francisco to end their 2019 season, but that was a game the Packers trailed 27-0 at halftime.
I project a much more positive game script for Green Bay and a much closer contest on Saturday. Add in the brutally cold weather, and I'll take this Adams receiving total under.
We project Adams for 87.3 receiving yards, making this a 7-rated prop.
AJ Dillon Over 10.5 Rush Attempts (DraftKings)
AJ Dillon was drafted for this exact matchup, under these exact weather conditions. With the temperature projected to be below 10 degrees with over 10 mph winds, Green Bay will likely lean on the bruising 250-pound running back.
Not surprisingly, Dillon has seen an increase in usage over the second half of the season. He saw an average of 7.4 carries per game during the first seven games, compared to an average of 13.5 carries per game over Green Bay's last 10 contests.
The Packers averaged 27.7 rushing attempts over their last three games, including 27.9 attempts in home games. Dillon is the primary running back in the red zone, with 21 red-zone rushing attempts over the last six games.
He was drafted by the Packers in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft, directly after Green Bay's loss to San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game. In that game, the 49ers gained a mind-blowing 285 yards on the ground, averaging 6.8 yards per carry.
We project Dillon for 12.0 carries on our Action Labs Player Prop Tool, making this a 9-rated play by Koerner.
