NFL playoff leaders are among my favorite props to bet each postseason, but I'm not just betting on yardage leaders for the full playoffs — I'm also betting on yardage leaders for just Wild Card Weekend.
I simulated this week's opening round 10,000 times to calculate the true odds for key players in these markets. And after comparing my projections to the books, I’ve made six picks, including Ja'Marr Chase to lead the weekend in receiving yards and Elijah Mitchell to lead it in rushing yards.
NFL Wild Card Yardage Leaders
Passing Yards Leader
| Player | Projected Chance | Koerner's Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott, DAL | 14.60% | +585 |
| Matthew Stafford, LAR | 14.00% | +614 |
| Patrick Mahomes, KC | 14.30% | +599 |
| Tom Brady, TB | 12.20% | +720 |
| Joe Burrow, CIN | 9.80% | +920 |
| Kyler Murray, ARI | 8.70% | +1049 |
| Derek Carr, LV | 7.90% | +1166 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo, SF | 6.50% | +1438 |
| Josh Allen, BUF | 5.30% | +1787 |
| Ben Roethlisberger, PIT | 3.90% | +2464 |
| Mac Jones, NE | 1.90% | +5163 |
| Jalen Hurts, PHI | 1.10% | +8991 |
Pick: Derek Carr +1600
Carr offers sneaky value here.
The Raiders have the second-highest pass rate when trailing this season, so as 4.5-point underdogs against the Bengals (check real-time NFL odds here), there's a realistic chance the Raiders are forced into a pass-heavy game script.
Darren Waller returned to action last week, which helps raise Carr's ceiling — not to mention DeSean Jackson could always pop up out of nowhere with a deep catch (or two) to give Carr a shot at hitting this prop.
I'm projecting his true odds closer to +1150.
Rushing Yards Leader
| Player | Projected Chance | Koerner's Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Elijah Mitchell, SF | 22.90% | +337 |
| Joe Mixon, CIN | 17.10% | +485 |
| Najee Harris, PIT | 9.80% | +920 |
| Sony Michel, LAR | 8.90% | +1024 |
| Josh Jacobs, LV | 8.80% | +1036 |
| Devin Singletary, BUF | 7.90% | +1166 |
| Leonard Fournette, TB | 5.10% | +1861 |
| Damien Harris, NE | 4.80% | +1983 |
| Darrel Williams, KC | 4.40% | +2173 |
Click to expand the rest of Koerner's rushing yards leader projections
| Player | Projected Chance | Koerner's Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott, DAL | 2.90% | +3348 |
| Miles Sanders, PHI | 1.90% | +5163 |
| Chase Edmonds, ARI | 1.70% | +5782 |
| Jalen Hurts, PHI | 1.10% | +8991 |
| Josh Allen, BUF | 0.80% | +12400 |
| James Conner, ARI | 0.40% | +24900 |
| Jordan Howard, PHI | 0.40% | +24900 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn, TB | 0.40% | +24900 |
| Cam Akers, LAR | 0.20% | +49900 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson, NE | 0.20% | +49900 |
| Tony Pollard, DAL | 0.10% | +99900 |
| Deebo Samuel, SF | 0.10% | +99900 |
Pick: Elijah Mitchell +650
The 49ers will likely lean on Mitchell to have clock-killing drives that allow them to keep the Cowboys offense on the sideline. Mitchell has the potential for 25+ carries here, and in a market where we want as much upside as possible, he fits the bill.
I'm projecting his true odds closer to +350, making this one of my favorite bets of the weekend.
Pick: Sony Michel +1600
There's some uncertainty about how many touches Cam Akers will see after making his season debut in Week 18. But while that lowers Michel's floor, he still offers one of the highest ceilings in this market.
Head coach Sean McVay has preferred leaning on only one back, so there's a very real chance the Rams stick with Michel getting 20+ carries. There's also a chance they lean on the run considering Matthew Stafford has struggled with turnovers over the past few weeks.
I'm projecting his true odds closer to +1000.
Receiving Yards Leader
| Player | Projected Chance | Koerner's Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp, LAR | 29.60% | +238 |
| Ja'Marr Chase, CIN | 7.70% | +1199 |
| Stefon Diggs, BUF | 6.60% | +1415 |
| Tyreek Hill, KC | 6.00% | +1567 |
| Tee Higgins, CIN | 5.20% | +1823 |
| CeeDee Lamb, DAL | 4.80% | +1983 |
| Diontae Johnson, PIT | 4.60% | +2074 |
| Travis Kelce, KC | 3.60% | +2678 |
| Rob Gronkowski, TB | 3.40% | +2841 |
| Mike Evans, TB | 2.90% | +3348 |
| Christian Kirk, ARI | 2.80% | +3471 |
| Amari Cooper, DAL | 2.60% | +3746 |
| Darren Waller, LV | 2.50% | +3900 |
| Hunter Renfrow, LV | 2.10% | +4662 |
| George Kittle, SF | 2.10% | +4662 |
| Dallas Goedert, PHI | 2.00% | +4900 |
| Deebo Samuel, SF | 2.00% | +4900 |
Click to expand the rest of Koerner's receiving yards leader projections
| Player | Projected Chance | Koerner's Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz, ARI | 1.30% | +7592 |
| Brandon Aiyuk, SF | 1.30% | +7592 |
| A.J. Green, ARI | 1.20% | +8233 |
| DeVonta Smith, PHI | 1.20% | +8233 |
| Odell Beckham Jr., LAR | 1.10% | +8991 |
| Jakobi Meyers, NE | 0.60% | +16567 |
| Zay Jones, LV | 0.50% | +19900 |
| Dalton Schultz, DAL | 0.50% | +19900 |
| Chase Claypool, PIT | 0.50% | +19900 |
| Cedrick Wilson, DAL | 0.50% | +19900 |
| Tyler Boyd, CIN | 0.40% | +24900 |
| Van Jefferson, LAR | 0.30% | +33233 |
| Tyler Higbee, LAR | 0.20% | +49900 |
| Dawson Knox, BUF | 0.20% | +49900 |
| Gabriel Davis, BUF | 0.10% | +99900 |
| Byron Pringle, KC | 0.10% | +99900 |
| Cole Beasley, BUF | 0.10% | +99900 |
| Hunter Henry, NE | 0.10% | +99900 |
Pick: Cooper Kupp +470
I'm surprised to see books offering Kupp at odds higher than +300. I would imagine they'll get a ton of action on him at this price as he offers quite a bit of value with other wild-card games featuring potential weather issues and/or lopsided game scripts as Kupp is indoors in what could be a close shootout against the Cardinals.
I'm projecting his true odds closer to +250.
Pick: Ja'Marr Chase +1500
I'm also surprised to see Chase's price this high. He offers a ton of upside in a market like this — I'm projecting him closer to +1200, so there's not a ton of value, but enough to make it worth throwing some change on it.
Pick: CeeDee Lamb +2500
There's some value on Lamb at this price. The 49ers are a pass funnel defense that the Cowboys will likely attack through the air this Sunday, and while Lamb has been quiet for the past handful of games, he's one of the best up-and-coming wide receivers in the league and can erupt at any given moment.
I'm projecting his true odds closer to +2000.
