Sportsbooks offer plenty of ways to bet on NFL props during the playoffs, including specials on which players will lead each round in yardage.
That's why I simulated Bengals-Chiefs and 49ers-Rams 10,000 times to calculate the "true odds" for key players in these Championship Sunday leader markets. And after comparing my projections to odds at various books, I’ve made two picks: On one passing leader and one rushing leader.
I've also outlined my projected odds next to odds from BetMGM, DraftKings and FanDuel as of writing so you can quickly compare and make your own assessments.
NFL Props For Championship Sunday
Most Passing Yards
Pick: Patrick Mahomes +220 at BetMGM
There is slight value betting Mahomes at this price as I have his fair odds being closer to +180. You don't need me to tell you how good Mahomes is or why he should be the favorite in this market.
I did notice that Jimmy Garoppolo's odds are too low across all books. Yes, he has a fairly high ceiling — he’s thrown for 300+ yards in five games this season — but the 49ers will do everything they can to limit his attempts against the Rams.
Since it really does seem like a three-man race in this market, Mahomes offers a small edge.
Bet to: +220
Most Passing Yards
Pick: Elijah Mitchell +250 at BetMGM
As I mentioned above, the 49ers will likely lean on their run game as much as possible against the Rams, so Mitchell is the clear favorite to lead Championship Sunday in rushing yards.
Joe Mixon and Cam Akers have struggled with efficiency of late. And the Chiefs backfield is murky with Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon possibly splitting rush attempts, paving the way for Mitchell to lead this market with only a slightly above-average performance.
I’m projecting Mitchell's true odds closer to +160.
Bet to: +230
Most Receiving Yards
Pick: None
I'm not betting this market, but am targeting a receiving prop in both games. Find those picks here.
