The best game of the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs is expected to be the Sunday night battle between the Bills and Chiefs. The winner of this game will be the favorite in next week's AFC Championship Game.
This is a rematch of last year's championship game, won 38-24 by the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes threw three touchdown passes while Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce combined for 22 receptions, 290 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
The Bills grabbed a small level of revenge with a dominant, 38-20 victory at Kansas City in Week 5 earlier this season. This time, Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen was the star, totaling four touchdowns. Tight end Dawson Knox torched the Chiefs secondary for 117 yards and one touchdown.
Let's take a look at my favorite NFL player props for a fantastic culminating Divisional Round matchup between the Bills and Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.
Find a complete breakdown of the game here.
What are player props? They're bets on a player's statistical outcome. Learn more here.
NFL Props: Bills vs. Chiefs
Travis Kelce Under 70.5 Receiving Yards -115 (DraftKings)
Vividness bias will be strong toward the over on this prop, as Kelce just tallied 108 receiving yards and a touchdown in last week's 42-21 destruction of Pittsburgh.
However, Kelce has fallen short of this total in four of his past six games. The other time he beat this line, he finished with 10 receptions, 191 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Kelce's blowup games are so extreme, the public tends to overestimate the likelihood of beating a low total such as this.
Kelce only totaled 57 receiving yards in the first matchup with Buffalo, and will certainly be a focal point of Sunday's matchup. Buffalo allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season.
We project Kelce for just 63.6 receiving yards against the Chiefs in our Action Labs Prop Tool.
Devin Singletary Under 15.5 Rushing Attempts -120 (DraftKings)
Buffalo has used Devin Singletary as its primary running back for the second half of this season. He averaged a robust 19 carries over the Bills' last four regular-season games. The common theme in all those games: Buffalo was winning the majority of the time.
This projects to be a close battle, making it hard to see Buffalo operating with a majority of positive game script. In the earlier game this year, despite the Bills winning easily, Singletary only saw six carries. Allen actually led the Bills with 11 carries for 59 yards.
In last week's 47-17 thumping of New England, Singletary only beat this total by 0.5 carries. I don't see the Bills trusting Singletary as a workhorse in such a critical matchup and instead relying more on their passing attack and Allen's rushing ability.
The Bills have rushed the ball 51.96% of the time in their last three games, a huge increase from their 40.94% during the season. I think they regress to their passing norm, and back the under on his 15.5 rushing attempts.
We project Singletary for just 14 rushes.
Byron Pringle Over 32.5 Receiving Yards -108 (FanDuel)
Byron Pringle has become an integral part of the Kansas City offense. He has seven or more targets in three of the past four games, and has beaten this yardage total in four straight contests.
In their first matchup, Pringle only caught two passes, keeping this total low. Pringle's current role is much different than earlier in the year, and I expect more opportunities with Kelce's impact being minimized.
The 28-year-old veteran wideout still carries 4.46 speed and ranked second among all receivers in target separation, per PlayerProfiler. We project Pringle for 36.2 receiving yards.
