If you’re looking for an edge when it comes to player prop bets for this year’s NFL playoffs, look no further than Sean Koerner’s projections in our Player Props Tool on Action Labs.
While the market on many of the available prop bets is tight, there are a couple of value plays that stand out this week for this divisional matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Find a complete breakdown of the game here.
What are player props? They're bets on a player's statistical outcome. Learn more here.
NFL Props: Rams vs. Bucs
Tom Brady Under 293.5 Passing Yards (DraftKings)
Tom Brady is the G.O.A.T. Not only has he amassed an incredible seven Super Bowl rings over the course of his career, but he set career highs — and NFL records — in his age-44 season.
That said, the matchup this week against this top-ranked Rams defense does not favor the Buccaneers, particularly with their injuries on the offensive line. Star tackle Tristan Wirfs is officially questionable with an ankle injury, with reports from this week indicating that he’s a “long shot” to play. Center Ryan Jensen is also dealing with an ankle injury and draws a questionable tag himself in this one. If they play, both will likely be less than 100%, which doesn’t bode well for the Buccaneers offense against this ferocious top-ranked Rams pass rush, per PFF.
Historically, the most effective way to contain Brady in a must-win game is to bring the pressure, something that the Rams do particularly well. They ranked third in the league this season with 50 sacks, a number that would be even higher had they played the full season with star linebacker Von Miller, whom they acquired via trade from the Denver Broncos.
While Brady does get the ball out quickly, this Rams defense should have no trouble getting through this hobbled offensive line. That should result in a lower completion percentage and a higher rate of pressure than Brady has grown accustomed to this season.
At a total of 293.5 yards, this passing prop total is too high given the matchup. Koerner’s projections have Brady’s total coming in at just 279.5, a sizeable 4.7% gap compared to the current total. I’m taking the under here and would play it down to 285 yards.
Tyler Higbee Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)
Over the past five games, Tyler Higbee has emerged as the top passing option in this offense behind Cooper Kupp. Over that span, including last week’s playoff win, Higbee has averaged seven targets, five catches and 52 yards per game and has been a consistent option for quarterback Matthew Stafford over the middle.
In a game that oddsmakers expect the Rams to be trailing, Higbee should once again emerge as a safety valve for Stafford in this one. At a prop total of 42.5 receiving yards, there is strong value on the over here. Higbee has exceeded this total seven times this season, including four of his last five games. In the only game that he didn’t surpass this total, he finished with 41 yards.
He’ll also have a strong matchup advantage in Sunday’s contest. Per PFF’s WR/TE Matchup Tool, Higbee comes in with a 35% matchup advantage against his primary defenders, the third-highest edge behind Travis Kelce and Rob Gronkowski this week.
While I do expect the Rams to heavily utilize running backs Sony Michel and Cam Akers to try and limit the Buccaneers offensive time of possession in this one, there’s also a reasonable expectation that the Rams are forced to turn to the pass more often than they’d like as underdogs in a game with a 2.5-point spread.
I’m taking the over on this one and would be comfortable playing it up to 46 yards if the line were to shift prior to kickoff.
