The 2024-25 NFL playoffs are here, so it's time to make some futures picks and predictions.
After a long, grueling regular season, we are finally down to 14 teams remaining, including only nine with implied odds of at least 3% to win the Super Bowl and just six with better than 5% implied odds: the Lions, Chiefs, Ravens, Bills, Eagles and Vikings.
Many bettors are already sitting on a Super Bowl ticket from sometime before or during the season — I've got Eagles +2200 from way back last January, Chiefs +1600 from a creative preseason angle, and Ravens +1100 from December — but it's time to add to that futures portfolio.
I've got two futures bets worth playing as the postseason begins: one to get to the Super Bowl and one to win the whole thing.
NFL Playoffs Picks, Predictions
Baltimore Ravens to Win the Super Bowl +600
The Ravens were the best team for most of the regular season a year ago, and many advanced metrics would say that was the case again this season. Baltimore led the league in DVOA a second straight season, this time finishing as the seventh-best team since 1978 (when tracking began) — just two spots behind last year's squad.
Baltimore has had the league's best offense all season, even better than a year ago. The reworked offensive line took time to gel but has come together nicely, and Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and Isaiah Likely have stepped up as targets in the passing game with Flowers making his first Pro Bowl.
The big addition was Derrick Henry, who joined a new team at age 30 and responded with one of the best seasons of his career, running 325 times for 1,921 yards and a league-leading 16 touchdowns. Henry is this team's ultimate closer, the big addition acquired to put this team over the top in the playoffs, and he and Lamar Jackson are the ultimate one-two punch with Jackson's legs and better-than-ever MVP-hopeful arm coming off a career year.
No defense in the league can contain Jackson's scrambling, stuff Henry's power run, and stop the downfield passing attack all at once. Baltimore can score on anyone at any time, as long as Todd Monken is dialing up the right plays.
That was all deadly enough before the Ravens defense found its way midseason and stepped up to become one of the top five units in the league over the back half of the season. The pass defense moved Marlon Humphrey into the slot where he's thrived and put Kyle Hamilton more permanently at safety instead of bouncing him around positionally, and Baltimore's pass defense has taken a huge leap from liability to strength.
Baltimore is the whole package now, with no real weakness outside of Justin Tucker and an unusually weak special team.
In the last couple of years, quite often the only team capable of beating the Ravens is Baltimore itself. If this team doesn't blow a late lead or lose its head-calling plays, it's simply the best team in football.
Henry is especially important for this playoff run. He ran 24 times for 199 yards already this season in a 35-10 dismantling of the Bills, who have struggled against power rushing attacks, and that power run game should be a great weapon in outdoor Buffalo and Kansas City conditions.
Past Baltimore runs have too often come down to Lamar Jackson needing to do everything on offense, and he has failed repeatedly in big spots. But now both Jackson and Henry can provide answers, and Lamar is playing the best ball of his career, with elite coaching, defense, and rushing attack to back him.
Baltimore just crushed its first-round opponent Pittsburgh a few weeks ago, and it destroyed its likely second opponent Buffalo in September. The Ravens would likely be favored on a neutral field against the Chiefs and came an inch away from forcing overtime in Kansas City to start the season, Baltimore matches up well and is more complete than any potential NFC opponent.
The AFC will be tough, and the Ravens have a difficult path against a division foe that always keeps things close, then likely the Bills and Chiefs, with two of those games on the road. But that also means a longer number than usual since books have to price that in, too.
I make the Ravens around 27%, or +275, to win the AFC, providing a slight edge versus +300 at BetMGM, but that's not aggressive enough.
I'd love the Ravens against the Lions defense, and I'd love Lamar Jackson and Baltimore's pass defense head to head with Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. I'd make the Ravens a clear favorite against any NFC opponent, heavily so against most.
I have the Ravens around 18% to win the Super Bowl and would price them at +450. FTN is even more aggressive, pricing Baltimore at 33% to win the AFC and 21% to win the whole thing.
Even if you tailed the Ravens +1100 ticket we bet under a month ago, there's still value on Baltimore +600 to win the Super Bowl at DraftKings as the best championship ticket on the board.
I also love Derrick Henry at +4500 to win Super Bowl MVP at DraftKings. I'll be writing about Super Bowl MVP and make the case for Henry later this week.
Philadelphia Eagles to Win the NFC+350
Adam Schefter reported on Monday that Jalen Hurts is still in the concussion protocol. I'd suggest waiting on backing the Eagles in the futures market until we get clarity on Hurts' status.
I've had my eye on these Eagles since last January when they turned over the staff and brought in Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio as new coordinators, actually comparing them to last year's Ravens as a team that could round into form and make a leap into the top tier of contention.
That's exactly what we've seen from this team, now the best and most well-rounded team in the NFC as we hit the postseason.
Philadelphia fell apart down the stretch last season and stumbled to a 2-2 start this year before the bye week, but the defense found its footing during the bye and has been the best in the league since. Jalen Carter has exploded on the defensive line, and rookie corners Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean have made Fangio's secondary fearsome.
The Eagles have allowed 20 points or fewer in 11 of 13 games since the bye week, averaging just 15.9 PPG allowed over that stretch. Only the Commanders got to this defense since then, and even Washington had only 14 points heading into the final quarter before exploding late.
In other words, this incredible defense has had exactly one bad quarter since the start of October. Pretty good.
The offense is the best in the league at running the football, and likely OPOY Saquon Barkley would surely have set the all-time NFL rushing record if given the opportunity against the Giants in Week 18. Philadelphia has the best offensive line in the league and gives Barkley huge space to run, and he's capable of ripping through the line for a touchdown on any play.
The passing game has been the most inconsistent spot on this team but is typically great when its top three guys are healthy, and A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and now Dallas Goedert are good to go for the playoffs.
Truthfully, Jalen Hurts is the biggest question mark on the roster. He's still in concussion protocol for now, and he's still hesitant to attack the middle of the field and no longer a huge run threat, though his scrambles have been more valuable this year and the tush push is still about as deadly a weapon as ever.
If Hurts can be consistent enough with his arm, the Eagles are as talented and well-rounded as any team in the league and capable of another run to the Super Bowl.
Philadelphia got unlucky with the Packers dropping into the No. 7 seed and a brutal first-round matchup since the Packers may well be the other most complete and well-rounded team in the NFC, but the Eagles may have gotten some luck with Jordan Love and Christian Watson injuries on Sunday.
The Eagles could have to run the NFC North gauntlet against the Packers, then the Vikings and Lions, but I'd like to see how Philadelphia would match up against any NFC opponent. Every other team has a clear flaw or weak point. The Eagles do not unless Hurts isn't up to par — and it's just as possible that he ends up the best quarterback in the NFC for these playoffs.
I make the Eagles about 31% to win the NFC, right around where FTN has them at 30%. I'd price Philadelphia about +225, which means a clear edge at +350 at BetMGM.
In this case, I'm not looking to make the more aggressive Super Bowl bet. I can talk myself into Hurts against the NFC competition, but there's a very strong chance I will like the opposing Super Bowl QB more than Hurts — probably Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Lamar Jackson, but even Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud would likely rank ahead — and I don't love tying my money up to a QB I don't believe in for the biggest game of the season.
I've got the Eagles around 13 or 14% to win the whole thing, leaving little edge on a +700 ticket, and I've already got a much better ticket from January anyway. I'll pass on the Super Bowl ticket but play the +350 NFC odds on Philadelphia at BetMGM.
If you like both angles, you can bet a Ravens-Eagles Super Bowl matchup at +1600 at BetMGM. I'd make that around +1100 and FTN is even sharper at +900, so there's clear value there.
And if you like the Ravens to win that matchup like I do, you can bet Ravens over Eagles in the Super Bowl at +3000 at DraftKings. Let's have playoffs!
