We made it to the NFL playoffs, and we're down to 14 teams.
Say goodbye to endless MVP debates and power rankings as the teams settle it on the field — and say hello to Super Bowl MVP.
We all know who usually wins Super Bowl MVP: it's just the quarterback of the winning team. Since 2010, 11 of the 15 Super Bowl MVP winners were simply the winning QB, so almost three in every four.
If a quarterback doesn't win it, it's usually someone they threw to — either on purpose (their own receiver) or by accident (someone on defense). In the four times it wasn't the winning QB, the award went to a wide receiver or a defender.
We did see three receivers win Super Bowl MVP between 2005 and 2009, but we haven't had a single running back win it since — ready to be shocked? — Terrell Davis, all the way back in 1998!
So how do we bet Super Bowl MVP now that books are finally posting odds?
First, we want to look for star quarterbacks with significantly different odds than their team winning the Super Bowl, since they can act as a proxy for a team Super Bowl win at boosted odds. Even if we're not betting on a QB, we should be focused on that same margin — because how often does that player need to win MVP in a team's Super Bowl win for an MVP bet to be an angle worth taking?
I've got five Super Bowl MVP bets worth making as the playoffs begin.
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Matthew Stafford +6600
Stafford isn't my favorite pick here, but he's an easy example of the principle we just stated so let's start there.
Most books have the Rams priced at +3500 to win the Super Bowl. Stafford is +6600 to win Super Bowl MVP. If you do the math, that means Stafford only has to win MVP in about 54% of all Rams Super Bowl wins for this to be the preferred bet instead of an LA win.
In what world do the Rams win a Super Bowl but Stafford doesn't win MVP? It did happen already with Cooper Kupp, so maybe a monster Puka Nacua game? Only 13 NFL quarterbacks ever have won multiple Super Bowls, and just two of them (Ben Roethlisberger, Bob Griese) never won Super Bowl MVP. If the Rams do the thing a second time, you have to believe voters will reward Stafford this time.
The one elite thing the Rams do is pass the football, so Stafford will be responsible for any run LA makes. So can they make that run?
They start at home against a Vikings team they already beat, playing in an emotional letdown spot with Sam Darnold making his playoff debut. That's a very winnable game, and it could be followed up by Stafford visiting his old Lions team, a squad he already took to overtime in the season opener.
At his best, Matthew Stafford can match throw-for-throw with the NFL's elite quarterbacks. I don't believe in the Rams, but if they even make a run to the NFC Championship Game, this ticket will provide an incredible hedge opportunity.
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Jordan Love +3600
Green Bay's best Super Bowl price is +2200, so Jordan Love only has to win MVP in at least 62% of all Packers wins for this to be the better way to bet Green Bay.
Love is a budding superstar and played brilliantly down the stretch of both last season and this one, and he was already terrific last playoffs. In what world do the Packers win four in a row as underdogs and Love isn't MVP? Who are even the other Packers options? Josh Jacobs, really? A defender?
I'd expect Love to be Super Bowl MVP in over 90% of all Packers wins. He would be by far the biggest reason Green Bay makes a deep run.
I recommended Eagles NFC futures this week, but the Packers were the team I really wanted to bet. Coming into Sunday, the Packers were the best team in football over the previous six weeks by DVOA, ranking in the top four on both offense and defense, both running and passing.
Everyone is talking down Green Bay for going 0-5 against Detroit, Minnesota, and Philadelphia, but why? The Packers have a pair of two-point losses to Minnesota, a walkoff field goal loss to Detroit, and a close loss in the opener to Philly on an ice rink in Brazil. If you play the best teams on your schedule to a coin-flip draw four of five opportunities, that's a good thing, not a bad thing.
There's a real chance this is the best, most rounded team in a weak NFC, one that peaked down the stretch but now comes at a discount because of an ugly Week 18 finish and a possible Jordan Love injury. It won't be easy from the 7-seed, but Green Bay already showed it can hang with the best of the NFC, and the Packers are also the only 7-seed ever to win a game — and almost won two last year.
The Love injury is worrisome, and the path is worse drawing the Eagles right away in the opener, so I couldn't get there betting the Packers. I make Green Bay about 10% to win the NFC, leaving no real edge against its +950 odds. I have the Packers 4.2% to win the Super Bowl, making a +2200 Super Bowl bet poor value.
But Love +3600 changes things, so much so that we suddenly have a 50% edge on a Packers title if Love acts as a proxy bet for Green Bay. That makes this a bet worth making, and my favorite QB bet on the board.
If you're a believer in the Texans, C.J. Stroud at +15000 when the Texans are +10000 to win the Super Bowl is another quarterback MVP bet to consider.
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Derrick Henry +4500
Henry was actually the name that first prompted me to write this article, with MVP odds at +4500 when the Ravens are just +600 to win the title.
That means Henry only has to win MVP in 15% of all Ravens Super Bowl victories for that to be a smart way to bet Baltimore. Compare that to other star running backs like Jahmyr Gibbs at 23% and Saquon Barkley at 31%, more than double Henry's implied edge.
No running back has won Super Bowl MVP since 1998, but isn't this the Year of the Running Back?
Henry already has a clear built-in narrative. The Ravens have fallen short time and again in recent years in the postseason, and the one big change this year was bringing in Henry at RB. He's the ultimate closer, the one big piece this team was missing in its previous runs.
Henry is going to post numbers.
He scored a touchdown in 13 of 17 Ravens games this season. He ran for over 100 yards in over half his games (9 of 17). He had at least 150 combined yards in six games, over a third of them, and had multiple TDs in half of those.
If you've followed my weekly column this season, we've been betting Henry to have 100 rushing yards and 2+ TDs in games we expect the Ravens to win, a bet we just hit in Week 18. Henry has now posted 100/2 in 21 of 78 wins lifetime, meaning he has that stat line in 26.9% of all wins — over a quarter of them!
Is that the chicken or the egg? Is Henry why his team is winning or is winning why he's posting the huge numbers? It may not matter in the end. When the Ravens win, Henry posts numbers. He averaged 131 rushing yards and a TD in Baltimore wins this year.
And if Henry posts numbers like that in a Ravens Super Bowl win, Henry will be in the mix for MVP.
Philadelphia allowed the fewest fantasy points in the league to opposing RBs so I don't love that matchup for Henry, but he did have 111 combined yards against the Eagles already this season, and I like his matchup better against potential Super Bowl opponents like the Lions, Vikings, and Packers, all of whom allowed some big games to top opposing RBs this season.
It's possible that two-time — maybe three by the time the Super Bowl comes around — time MVP Lamar Jackson finally breaking through in the postseason would just be too obvious a crowning moment for a Super Bowl MVP, but Henry may very well post the best stats in a win. At +4500, he's a great way to invest in what might very well be the best team in the league and my current pick to win the whole thing.
If you want a crazy long shot, what about Kyle Hamilton at 1000-1 (DraftKings)? Defenders win Super Bowl MVP more than you'd think, and Hamilton is the Ravens' big defensive playmaker and sparked the huge uptick in their second-half defensive surge. Hamilton only has to be MVP in 0.7% of all Baltimore Super Bowl victories for this to be a good bet, and wouldn't the Ravens be just the sort of franchise to have a defensive MVP winner? You've done crazier things with a buck or two.
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Amon-Ra St. Brown +7500
This might be the best Super Bowl MVP bet on the board.
The best Lions Super Bowl ticket is priced at +320, so Amon-Ra St. Brown only has to win MVP in just 5.5% of all Lions title wins for this to be a great way to invest in Detroit.
MVP usually goes to QB, and Jared Goff is the second MVP favorite in most books, but he has to win this around 60% of all Detroit wins to be the right bet. Would voters give Goff credit? Jahmyr Gibbs has to win MVP in 23% of all Lions wins to be valued, a terrible number. St. Brown is much closer to Jameson Williams, who'd have to win MVP around 3.5% of the time. Shouldn't ARSB be much closer to Gibbs than Williams?
St. Brown was terrific in last year's Detroit postseason run, averaging 7.3 catches for 91 yards in three playoff games. He owns the middle of the field and is Goff's go-to target on third down and in the red zone, so he'd be the guy making the big, high-leverage plays for Detroit in the clutch.
St. Brown had at least 6/60 or a touchdown in all but three games this season, and he had both seven times. He has at least 100 yards in 13 games over the past two seasons, 39% of them, and has scored 22 touchdowns.
Look at the receivers winning Super Bowl MVP over the last couple of decades and the lines they're posting:
- Cooper Kupp: 8 receptions, 92 yards, 2 TDs
- Julian Edelman: 10 receptions, 141 yards
- Santonio Holmes: 9 receptions, 141 yards, 1 TD
- Deion Branch: 11 receptions, 143 yards
Aren't those the exact sort of line Amon-Ra St. Brown would put up in a Lions win? Huge volume, repeated targets, chewing up yardage, and moving the chains repeatedly in big spots. That's ARSB.
The matchup likely works too. Kansas City, Buffalo, and Baltimore all rank in the top half of the league in most fantasy points allowed to opposing WRs, and Detroit would likely have to win in a shootout. That almost definitely means volume and numbers for Amon-Ra St. Brown.
This is just an awful number for such an important player on the current Super Bowl favorites, and I've already seen it as low as +2200 in one book. Grab Amon-Ra St. Brown at +7500 while you still can.
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A.J. Brown +10000
The Eagles are +700 to win the Super Bowl at most books, so A.J. Brown has to win MVP in under 8% of all Philadelphia title wins for this to be a valuable ticket. Compare that to someone like Justin Jefferson, who would have to be MVP in over 20% of Vikings wins for an MVP ticket to be valuable.
Brown had six games this year with at least 89 yards and a touchdown. Last season, he had six straight games with at least 127 receiving yards. When A.J. Brown gets hot, he gets red hot.
Brown doesn't fit the profile quite as well as Amon-Ra St. Brown, and both Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley are clearly more likely MVPs for the Eagles, but Brown can be absolutely dominant in certain matchups and the Eagles have shown they're willing to pepper Brown and go back to him time and again when he owns a matchup.
Baltimore was among the worst teams in the league against opposing WR1s for most of the season by DVOA, and the Chiefs and Bills finished around league average against the pass. None of them have a corner with the size and skill to match up with A.J. Brown all game.
Brown was +1800 to win MVP in his last Super Bowl appearance and was a pretty trendy bet there, so if we like the Eagles to make the Super Bowl almost a third of the time, he's a great bet at 100-1.
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