It’s the Divisional Round! There might not be a better weekend of professional football than the one before us. The football gawds are generous.
Here are four prop bets — one from each game — that I like for this weekend based on the research I’ve done and the projections we have in the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool, where the props with a Bet Quality Rating of 10 (out of 10) have gone 485-317-19 since the 2018 season.
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This season, I’m 326-215-10 (+62.1) on NFL player props.
49ers RB Raheem Mostert RushingYards
- Over 52.5: -112
- Under 52.5: -112
Mostert has been locked in as the 49ers lead back since Week 13, averaging 75.8 yards on 12.8 carries per game over that time. In each of the past five games, he's gone over 52.5 yards.
In nine games this year, Mostert has had eight-plus carries. He's had more than 52.5 yards in all but one of them.
Do you think he'll get at least eight carries this weekend? I do.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Mostert projected for 65.3 yards rushing.
Pick: Over 52.5 (-112)
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 10 (out of 10)
Ravens TE Nick Boyle Receiving Yards
- Over 13.5: -112
- Under 13.5: -112
It's not all caviar, champagne and cake when it comes to betting props. Sometimes the true value lies in the unsexy props, and that's where we are with Boyle.
Tight end Mark Andrews (ankle) is likely to play, but he is questionable and has been limited in practice this week. With Andrews at less than full capacity, Boyle could get a little more of the receiving workload, and no quarterback has targeted his tight ends more than Lamar Jackson has over the past year.
Boyle has averaged 20.1 yards per game this year, and the Titans have allowed the seventh-most yards receiving to tight ends with 57.3 per game.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Boyle projected for 20.1 yards receiving.
Pick: Over 13.5 (-112)
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 10 (out of 10)
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes Passing Touchdowns
- Over 1.5: -200
- Under 1.5: +160
In his 32 games as the full-time starter, Mahomes has passed for more than 1.5 touchdowns 22 times.
He passed for three touchdowns against the Texans in Week 6 despite suffering an injury in the middle of the game, and during the regular season, the Texans allowed 33 touchdowns passing, the fourth-highest mark in the league.
The Texans have allowed more than 1.5 touchdowns passing to starting quarterbacks in 11 of 17 games this year, and the guys not to cross that threshold are Gardner Minshew (twice), Kyle Allen, Jacoby Brissett, Jameis Winston (without wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin) and Josh Allen last week.
Mahomes doesn't belong in that group.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Mahomes projected for 2.3 touchdowns passing.
Pick: Over 1.5 (-200)
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 10 (out of 10)
Seahawks QB Russell Wilson Rushing Yards
- Over 28.5: -114
- Under 28.5: -114
Wilson has 29 and 45 yards rushing on eight and nine carries in the past two weeks, so maybe he's starting to run more frequently, but he's had more than 28.5 yards rushing in just six of 17 games this year.
Under defensive coordinator Mike Pettine, the Packers have held opposing quarterbacks to just 143 rushing yards this year. That's the league's fourth-lowest mark. Last year under Pettine, they had a similarly respectable mark of 186 yards.
In 16 games, the Packers have allowed just one quarterback to go over 28.5 yards: The run-oriented Mitch Trubisky in Week 15 — and even then he had only 29 yards.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Wilson projected for 21.6 yards rushing.
Pick: Under 28.5 (-114)
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 10 (out of 10)
Freedman is 563-440-22 (56.1%) overall betting on the NFL. To see the rest of the player props he’s betting, follow him in The Action Network App as he’ll continue to fill out his prop card throughout the weekend.
