It's Wild Card Weekend!
I love the playoffs, and I love player props, so postseason player props are my jam. Here are four prop bets — one from each game — that I like for this weekend, based on the research I’ve done and the projections we have in the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.
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This season, I’m 317-206-10 (+63.1) on NFL player props.
Bills WR Cole Beasley Receiving Yards
- Over 47.5: -125
- Under 47.5: +100
In seven of 15 games, Beasley has gone over 47.5 yards this year, so on the basis of that sample, this looks pretty much like a coin flip.
But Beasley has such a good matchup: The Texans are No. 26 in pass defense DVOA (per Fantasy Outsiders). Going against slot cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III, Beasley has one of the best WR/CB matchups on the slate.
Plus, Beasley is on the positive side of his per-game splits as a road underdog (per RotoViz Game Splits App).
- Away (eight games): 60 yards
- Home (seven games): 42.6 yards
- Underdog (eight games): 57.9 yards
- Favorite (seven games): 45 yards
Across his six games as a road dog, he's averaged 59.8 yards.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Beasley projected for 57.6 yards receiving.
Pick: Over 47.5 (-125)
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 10 (out of 10)
[In New Jersey or Indiana? Bet now at Sugar House]
Titans RB Derrick Henry Receiving Yards
- Over 7.5: -112
- Under 7.5: -112
Henry is not much of a pass-catching back, and that's reflected in his prop.
On the surface, this line looks about right. He's gone over 7.5 yards receiving in eight of 15 games, and if Henry gets even one catch, he has a pretty decent chance to hit the over because he has averaged 10.1 yards per reception for his career.
But the Patriots have allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards (31.1) and receptions (4.2) to opposing backfields. Given how infrequently Henry is used as a receiver and how stingy the Pats have been against backs in the receiving game, I like the under.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Henry projected for 5.8 yards receiving.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-112)
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 10 (out of 10)
[In New Jersey or Indiana? Bet now at Sugar House]
Vikings TE Kyle Rudolph Receiving Yards
- Over 27.5: -118
- Under 27.5: -122
This line is inflated because of what Rudolph did in Weeks 7-14, when wide receiver Adam Thielen missed five games and played just 16 snaps in two others.
Rudolph's Thielen-focused splits are notable.
- Thielen is out/plays fewer than 10 snaps (Weeks 7-14): 34.3 yards
- Thielen plays at least 10 snaps (Weeks 1-6, 15-16): 15.9 yards
After playing 93% of the snaps in Week 16 and resting entirely in Week 17, Thielen should be back to his usual self this week, so Rudolph is likely to have a reduced role.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Rudolph projected for 22.5 yards receiving.
Pick: Under 27.5 (-122)
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 10 (out of 10)
[In New Jersey or Indiana? Bet now at Sugar House]
Seahawks QB Russell Wilson Rushing Yards
- Over 22.5: -114
- Under 22.5: -114
Wilson isn't the runner he used to be. Maybe part of that is age, and maybe part of it is the influence of offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer.
But since 2018 — his age-30 season and when Schotty joined the Seahawks — Wilson has seen a significant dip in his per-game rushing production.
- 2012-17 (96 games): 6.0 carries, 34.1 yards
- 2018-19 (32 games): 4.4 carries, 22.4 yards
Wilson's rushing prop is very much in line with what he's done over the past two seasons, but I don't like the situation for Wilson.
As a favorite, Wilson is on the negative side of his per-game rushing splits.
- Underdog (13 games): 29.1 yards
- Favorite (19 games): 17.9 yards
And the Eagles are No. 4 in rush defense DVOA. With the exception of Aaron Rodgers (46 yards), the only quarterbacks to rush for more than 22.5 yards against the Eagles this season are young guys who don't mind running: Dak Prescott (30), Josh Allen (45), Dwayne Haskins (26) and Daniel Jones (26).
Against the Eagles in Philadelphia in Week 12, Wilson rushed for just 15 yards on three carries.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Wilson projected for 16 yards rushing.
Pick: Under 22.5 (-114)
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 10 (out of 10)
[In New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at FanDuel]
Freedman is 551-427-22 (56.3%) overall betting on the NFL. To see the rest of the player props he’s betting, follow him in The Action Network App as he’ll continue to fill out his prop card throughout the weekend.
