A wild weekend in the NFL concluded Monday night with the sixth walk-off field goal winner.
That broke an all-time NFL record and turned the NFL Power Rankings for Week 11 upside down. Four of last week's top 10 went down, including three of the top six as the Ravens (No. 2), Bengals (4), Jaguars (6) and Bills (10) all took damaging losses. Meanwhile, the Vikings and Broncos now have the longest winning streaks in football, and the Texans emerged as a real playoff contender.
The final game may have been the most stunning of them all, with the Bills and Broncos taking turns giving the game away one play after another. Denver missed two extra points and trailed by one late. Buffalo turned it over four times. The Broncos had to run the field goal unit onto the field at the end of both halves with a running clock. The Bills had two season-killing penalties to lose the game in the final seconds.
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The fallout may have only just begun for Buffalo, with the Bills already panic firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey in the aftermath on Tuesday morning. Suddenly the Bills have gone from Super Bowl hopes to playoff long shots — and they're not alone.
The AFC playoff picture is crazy, and we still have a long ways to go. These are your Week 11 NFL Power Rankings.
(To skip directly to a specific team, click on the team's name in the table below!)
NFL Week 11 Power Rankings
TIER I — BRING ON MONDAY NIGHT
1. Philadelphia Eagles (Last week ranking: 1)
Our two teams at the top of the Power Rankings remained unblemished by sitting at home watching on bye week. I guess that's one way to avoid The Curse of the Power Rankings.
The Eagles get the top spot by virtue of that "1" in the losses column, but this next month will determine Philly's season. The Eagles come out of the bye at Kansas City, then host Buffalo and San Francisco, then play at Dallas and Seattle.
It's a brutal five-game stretch, and it's time to find out if the Eagles are capital-G Great like last year or just pretty good, like a lot of the underlying metrics indicate.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (3)
It's hard to have a much better bye week than the one Kansas City just had.
The Chiefs watched comfortably at home from their couches — or from a Taylor Swift concert in Argentina — as all of the following happened:
- The Chargers lost, leaving the Chiefs up three in the division.
- The Ravens and Jaguars both lost, leaving the Chiefs alone at the top of the AFC 1-seed race.
- The Bills and Bengals both lost, pushing Josh Allen and Joe Burrow at least temporarily out of the playoffs altogether.
Charmed life.
TIER II — CONTENDERS TO THE THRONE
3. San Francisco 49ers (7)
It's amazing how good a team looks when it's actually healthy, huh? The 49ers got Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel back and magically went right back to demolishing teams, crushing the Jaguars 34-3 on the road. For my money, Williams is still the actual most important player on this team — not Christian McCaffrey, nor Brock Purdy — and may be the most important non-QB in football.
The 49ers absolutely ransacked the Jags. Jacksonville turned it over four times and had only two drives that lasted longer than six plays, and the 49ers outgained the Jaguars by almost double, 437 to 221 yards. The Niners actually went 1-for-4 in the red zone or the score might have been more like 49-3.
And this has been a really good Jaguars team most of the season! Jacksonville entered the weekend No. 2 in the entire NFL in Defensive DVOA and had no answers for San Francisco. Winning this way, on the road, was one of the most impressive wins of the season.
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4. Baltimore Ravens (2)
How in the world did the Ravens not win that game?
Baltimore was gifted a pick-six on the second play of the game and led 14-0 after 11 plays. The Ravens also recovered a muffed punt in the red zone for an easy touchdown drive. Baltimore took a lead of 14+ points four separate times and failed to hold every lead to an offense that had been anemic all season.
Even as the game fell apart late, the Ravens had a strip sack but couldn't recover it, and Baltimore's great defense let Cleveland march right downfield for the winning field goal.
I still have questions about Lamar Jackson's MVP candidacy and this offense in general, but the bigger question right now is what to do with the Ravens.
Baltimore with Jackson healthy has seven losses these last two seasons. The Ravens have led in the fourth quarter with at least a 75% win probability per ESPN in all of them, with five of the seven at 90% or higher.
Baltimore has trailed for 28 minutes and 46 seconds through 10 games. Per NFL Research, that's the third-lowest time trailing through 10 games in the last four decades — and the rest of the top five all started 10-0 and went on to make the Super Bowl.
It's possible there's some fourth-quarter voodoo killing the Ravens time and again late. But those first three quarters matter too, and it matters that the Ravens should be 10-0 right now, that they are repeatedly in position to win and dominate games late.
This loss was damaging in the division and 1-seed race, but the underlying numbers still paint Baltimore as the best team in football.
For the fourth or fifth straight Power Rankings, I'm asking you to invest more in Ravens futures.
Baltimore is projected at 11.9 wins at FTN. The Ravens over-11.5 win total is juiced to +125 (Caesars). The Ravens are at 55% to win a tight division, versus +140 (FanDuel) implying under 42%. Baltimore is +550 to make the Super Bowl, implied 15% versus almost 30% at FTN. The Ravens are +1200 to win it all (both at FanDuel), implied 7.7% versus 18.8% at FTN, well more than double the edge in our favor.
Pick one, pick more than one, or double or triple down if you must. The numbers say to buy Ravens stock.
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5. Detroit Lions (5)
The Lions continue to be NFL darlings, and this coaching staff has been incredible. Ben Johnson dials up a wide open touchdown nearly every game, and Dan Campbell has given this team a huge edge with his fourth-down aggressiveness.
The Lions went for it on fourth down three times in one drive early against the Chargers, including a 4th-and-5 run that sent a clear message to both the Lions and their opponent about just how little respect they had for LA's defense. That sort of thing builds swagger and belief, and it's working.
The Lions remain a sleeping giant, and they're more than just darlings. Detroit has a 26% chance at the NFC 1-seed and 60% at a top-two seed. They're 46% to at least make the NFC championship and 24% to get to the Super Bowl.
Detroit is the NFC team with the most futures value in the market.
The Lions are +550 to make the Super Bowl, implied 15%. That looks like the best bet, rather than +1300 to win the Super Bowl. Detroit has a real chance of hosting the NFC Championship, possibly as favorites, so that +550 ticket would give you hedge-or-hold options as needed.
6. Dallas Cowboys (8)
It was very kind of the schedule makers to give the Cowboys another bye week. The Giants game was hardly a game at all, and the Cowboys continue to roll.
All but one Cowboys win has come by 23 points or more, and Dak Prescott is playing as well as any QB in the league. Since Week 6, Prescott leads all QBs in PFF Passing Grade, yards per attempt, passing TDs, Big Time Throw Rate and Air Yard Percentage.
Now we just need to see Prescott and the Cowboys do it against a real team.
7. Miami Dolphins (9)
The Dolphins enjoyed all the same bye-week benefits as the Chiefs, and losses by the Bills and Jets leave Miami fully in control of its destiny now in the AFC East.
How will Mike McDaniel's guys self scout and grow out of the week off? Last year, Miami lost five of its final six games, and this year's offense has dropped from first in DVOA through Week 6 to just 19th since.
Call me crazy, but I think pundits might actually be underestimating the Dolphins because of that. Miami's swoon looks a lot like San Francisco's — driven by injuries in the trenches, notably left tackle Terron Armstead and center Connor Williams. While the offense has dropped off, the defense has quietly gotten healthier with Jalen Ramsey and improved a ton.
What if this team accelerates even more down the stretch? Miami has real Super Bowl upside.
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8. Minnesota Vikings (11)
Oh baby — we're here.
The Minnesota Vikings have the longest winning streak in football, and it's the longest by multiple games. The Eagles and Broncos have won three in a row, but the Vikings have won five straight. They also have four one-score losses, two of them to the top-two teams in the Power Rankings, plus a win over the No. 3 49ers. This Joshua Dobbs thing is happening right now, whether you like it or not.
For much of the game, the Vikings thoroughly dominated a Saints team that rates pretty well by most of the underlying metrics. Minnesota is flat out playing good football right now, especially on defense, where they shut down a red-hot Saints offense by holding them to under 120 yards as they took a 27-3 lead before New Orleans pushed back late.
The clock might not strike midnight anytime soon either. Minnesota's next three games are against the Broncos, Bears and Raiders. This team could get to 9-4 and an eight-game win streak.
The Vikings are up two games on the entire NFC field in the wild-card race, with key tiebreaker wins over the Falcons and Saints. Minnesota is suddenly a heavy favorite to make the playoffs at 78% at FTN.
If you want a piece of Vikings futures, I like betting them to secure an NFC wildcard at -120 (DraftKings), implied 55%. If you think the NFC is bad, and the Vikings are fun but not good enough to catch the Lions, that's a fun way to back them.
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TIER III — ONE OF THESE TEAMS WILL MISS THE PLAYOFFS (MAYBE TWO)
9. Houston Texans (14)
Texans Island!!
C.J. Stroud and the Texans were the story of Sunday as they lit up the Bengals defense with 17 explosive plays, tied for the fourth most by any team in a game since 2000, per Nate Tice. Houston racked up 544 yards on 7.4 yards per play, and Stroud had another game-winning drive late.
The Texans started 0-2 with a barrage of injuries, and it would have been easy to write off a rookie QB/coach combo at that point. Instead, Houston is 5-2 since, with the two losses coming on a field goal on the final play in a game Houston led. The Texans could be on a seven-game winning streak!
They have only two games left against teams at .500 or above and don't play a road game again until December 10.
I thought that Houston win over the Bengals was the most impressive win by any NFL team so far this season. These Texans are here to stay.
10. Cleveland Browns (13)
The Browns defense is one of the stories of the season, and Cleveland's defense stole another game with a late pick-six. Cleveland left no questions about whether it or Baltimore is the best defense in the league by shutting down Baltimore's rushing attack and turning Lamar Jackson from MVP to mortal.
There's no doubt this is a Super Bowl defense — but is the offense starting to find some answers too?
Even with all the defensive magic, the offense still had to drive 58 yards for the winning field goal. Deshaun Watson is starting to shake off the rust, and he leads all quarterbacks in fourth-quarter EPA per play on the season. If Cleveland can unearth that version of Watson, the dormant top-five QB, the Browns might be a sleeping giant.
11. Cincinnati Bengals (4)
Just when we were starting to believe in the Bengals again, Cincinnati gave another game away. While it's not looking like the worst thing in the world to lose to these Texans, Houston dominated the game early, and Cincinnati simply doesn't have margin for this sort of thing anymore after its early stumbles.
The AFC is loaded, and the Bengals head to Baltimore Thursday night before playing the Steelers, then traveling to Jacksonville. They end the season with road trips to Pittsburgh and Kansas City, then a potentially pivotal game against the Browns. Cincinnati also has key head-to-head tiebreak losses to the Browns, Ravens and Texans now. Every Bengals game will be like a Super Bowl going forward.
Like it or not, the best futures value on the board might be fading the Bengals.
That was the play a week ago, when I recommended Bengals +240 to miss the playoffs. That's down to +118 now at BetRivers but still has value at implied 46%, since FTN has Cincinnati as better than two-in-three to miss the playoffs at 68%.
There's also value on the under at 9.5 wins, juiced to +132 at FanDuel. Cincinnati has to finish 5-3 to go over that and faces the toughest schedule in the league. I prefer the No Playoff bet since the Bengals could win 10 and still miss out at this point.
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12. Jacksonville Jaguars (6)
There's little shame losing to the 49ers, but there's losing and there's getting absolutely embarrassed by a score of 34-3.
I'm not sure whether this is more worrying for the offense or the defense.
The defense has carried the team most of the season but has now been absolutely lit up by the 49ers and Texans. Those teams run a similar scheme, so Jacksonville should have had extra time to prep during its bye week and adjust but instead stopped the 49ers only three times all game. That defense has to face the Texans again in two weeks, and the division is back on the line.
The offense compiled only 221 yards against a 49ers defense that's been beatable. Jacksonville just doesn't have any easy buttons this season. Press Taylor's play calling is not pushing the ball downfield or finding big plays, and the offense isn't successful enough down-to-down to sustain long drives.
The Jaguars have faced three top-10 DVOA defenses this season: Kansas City, Pittsburgh and San Francisco. The offense scored one touchdown in those three games combined. That's a huge problem.
Jacksonville gets a brief respite against the Titans but then plays back-to-back great offenses in the Texans and Bengals, then back-to-back elite defenses in the Browns and Ravens. If this team can't handle an elite opponent on either side, are we sure they're even a lock for the playoffs? The Jaguars are 21% to miss at FTN but +450 to miss at Caesars, implied 18%.
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13. Buffalo Bills (10)
The Bills sort of ruined this tier of AFC teams grouped together with their Monday night loss suddenly making Buffalo a significant favorite to miss the playoffs at 74%. To put it another way, Buffalo's in-season win total is currently set at 8.5 wins. That's a .500 ball club, and that's exactly what the Bills are right now.
Buffalo has now given away surefire wins against the Jets, Patriots and Broncos. Over the past six weeks, the Bills are 2-4, eking out a pair of one-score wins over the mighty Giants and Bucs. Buffalo still has that big win over Miami but has proven very little otherwise.
The Bills might just not be very good.
TIER IV — STUCK IN THE MIDDLE (AND YOU CAN'T GET OUT OF IT)
14. Seattle Seahawks (12)
It's starting to look like some of those fluky Seahawks metrics are patterns. Seattle moves the ball early and racks up yards but keeps stalling on key late downs and in scoring position, and that almost cost the Seahawks the game against the Commanders. The defense is also starting to see its metrics fall off and struggled to get off the field on third down or late when Seattle needed a stop.
Seattle should be safely in the playoffs in the terrible NFC, but right now it's hard to believe the Seahawks can hang with the big dogs once they get there.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers (16)
The Steelers got their sixth one-score win of the season Sunday, and they very well could have lost five of those. Pittsburgh's three losses came against the 49ers, Texans and Jaguars, by 57 points combined. The Steelers have been outgained in every game this season.
And yet…
The Steelers are starting to find some answers in the run game. They ran 36 times for 205 yards against the Packers, and the permanent insertion of rookie Broderick Jones into the starting lineup has changed the game. Pittsburgh is pulling players on the line now and suddenly ranks second in the NFL in yards before contact per rush attempt at 2.1, up from second to last at 0.7 from the first seven weeks of the season, per PFF.
Pittsburgh's defense and coaching are sound. If the offense can find even a little proof of life, this team will be right back in the playoffs. FTN has them at 63%, but the books don't believe, with Pittsburgh at +116 (FanDuel), just 46% implied.
Up next are two road divisional games against the Browns and Bengals. Win one of those before home games against the Cardinals and Patriots, and suddenly 9-4 is in sight.
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16. Denver Broncos (22)
All the talk Monday night was about the Bills losing rather than the Broncos winning, but that's the sort of thing that happens when you luck into a win like that.
Denver had 10 drives that reached Buffalo territory, five that started there thanks to nearly constant Bills turnovers, and they still needed a late miracle field goal aided by a miracle pass interference to steal a victory that felt like the first time all game Russell Wilson and his 3.4 ADOT (Average Depth of Target) threw the ball past the sticks all night.
Still, a win is a win. The Broncos have now won three games in a row, with two of them against the Chiefs and Bills. Say what you want, but no one expected that.
Welcome to the top half of the Power Rankings, Denver.
17. Las Vegas Raiders (19)
It's the AFC West portion of the Power Rankings as Antonio Pierce stayed unbeaten as a head coach with a win over the Jets. Aidan O'Connell was outright miserable, but the Raiders defense continues to play very well, and Josh Jacobs had another big game.
Jacobs had 27 carries for 116 yards. He's seen his most carries of the season in each of the past two games and now leads the NFL in rushes by 26 (though the Raiders haven't had a bye yet). Jacobs is only three yards away from being second in the NFL in rushing yards. We played him at +2800 to defend his crown last week, and there's still some value at +1200 on bet365.
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18. Los Angeles Chargers (15)
Shame on the Chargers.
Shame on the Chargers for giving up 533 yards and 41 points to the Lions. Shame on them for being so bad defensively that Detroit never even hesitated on fourth down, going for it five times. Shame on them for giving up another monster game to a great WR1, with Amon-Ra St. Brown catching eight balls for 156 yards. Shame on them for throwing away a brilliant offensive performance from Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen.
The Chargers are dead last in the division. It shouldn't be this way. They keep playing well against great opponents but keep failing to get the job done. This is now three losses to the Dolphins, Cowboys and Lions all by three or fewer points.
The metrics match the eye test: the Chargers are a potential top-10 team. Unfortunately for LA, the win-loss column matters too.
19. New York Jets (18)
The Jets were better than the Raiders, and this defense is filthy right now and making life absolutely miserable on opposing quarterbacks, but New York lost anyway because it has no offense.
The Jets have scored three touchdowns in five games. Two of them were long broken Breece Hall plays, and the third was a touchdown the Eagles purposely gave them in the closing minutes. It's just not good enough.
You can forget about that December comeback for Aaron Rodgers. The Jets are down to 9% to make the playoffs. That Raiders game might have been the end.
20. Indianapolis Colts (20)
Our last Sunday morning international game of the season was the most nothing game that ever nothing'd.
I've never been so grateful to be in church. You're welcome, Germany.
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TIER V — ONE OF THESE TEAMS WILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS (MAYBE TWO)
21. New Orleans Saints (17)
The Saints got totally outplayed for half the game, saw Derek Carr leave hurt again, then hilariously watched Jameis Winston YOLO balls all over the field to accidentally make a late run. Somehow the Saints dropped a quarter billion on Carr only to discover that both of their backup quarterbacks are better.
Hilariously, the Saints are still clear division favorites in the putrid NFC South. They get a bye week now, well timed with some key injuries, before two huge games: first in Atlanta, then against the Lions.
Somebody still has to make the playoffs from the NFC South, which means at least one team in this tier will make the playoffs, and maybe more if the Vikings or Seahawks stumble. Hooray for the NFC!
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (24)
The Bucs won a pretty lifeless game against the Titans, 20-6, that should be entirely irrelevant to the NFL landscape, but the NFC South is so bad that Tampa Bay is now only a half game out of first.
Baker Mayfield is playing some of the best ball of his career, and the Bucs had a great defensive game. Is there something here?
23. Atlanta Falcons (23)
Stop me if you've heard this before, but another NFC South team gave away another winnable game.
The Taylor Heinicke experiment may be over after he left injured and Desmond Ridder was actually decent in his stead, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see Ridder reinstalled as starter during this bye week. Still, the two quarterbacks combined managed to complete 12 of 21 passes against a putrid Cardinals pass defense for 70 yards. That's just not acceptable.
Atlanta's early-down offense remains untenable, and the next two games after the bye come against terrific Saints and Jets defenses. The Falcons have no games left against teams above .500. Too bad that's exactly what they are too.
24. Los Angeles Rams (28)
It might be a gift to include the Rams in the tier of NFC playoff hopefuls at this point, but as open as the NFC is, this team can still make a push if Matt Stafford got healthy during this week off.
It would probably have to start immediately this week home against the Seahawks. That might be the team the Rams have the best chance of catching, and completing the sweep with a head-to-head win is vital.
25. Washington Commanders (25)
The Commanders were this close to stealing the game against the Seahawks and leaping into the NFC playoff race with a key win and tiebreaker, but instead it feels like this team is stuck just below the middle.
For whatever reason, the No. 25 spot in the Power Rankings is sticky. For a few weeks, it was Tennessee. Let's see how long Washington is stuck here.
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TIER VI — AT LEAST YOU'RE STILL PLAYING FOOTBALL
26. Tennessee Titans (21)
There's no question Will Levis has a huge arm, but he continues to struggle down-to-down. Levis had just a 40% Success Rate against a pretty beatable Bucs secondary and hasn't shown an ability to string together long drives.
Levis has a 38.9% Success Rate on the season, effectively tied with Zach Wilson and ahead of Tommy DeVito. It's still early, but he's going to have to do more than just chuck it deep.
27. Arizona Cardinals (32)
Welcome back, Kyler Murray! Murray's numbers weren't pretty, but he got the job done with a game-winning drive, sparked by a vintage 3rd-and-10 scramble when Atlanta could not contain him.
It's only the second win of the season for the Cardinals but immediately obvious that Murray is good enough that Arizona will likely win another couple games and fall out of the race for the No. 1 pick. That's not such a big deal if Murray is a healthy franchise quarterback.
UNREAL PLAY FROM KYLER MURRAYpic.twitter.com/Ys5m4RXJIR
— Action Network NFL (@ActionNetNFL) November 13, 2023
28. Green Bay Packers (26)
The Packers offense finally showed up in the first half!
Sure it took the second half off and lost as a result, but still — baby steps.
Actually, that's not even fair. The Packers moved the ball into the red zone four times in the second half. They just settled for two field goals and then saw Jordan Love intercepted on the other two. That's why they lost, though there were some promising signs nonetheless in an otherwise lost season.
29. Chicago Bears (28)
Revenge was a dish best served unwatched for D.J. Moore, who caught five balls for 58 yards against his former team in a totally unwatchable Thursday affair.
The Bears got the win and improved their draft pick — the one they own from Carolina, that is. Talk about a lose-win/lose-win scenario.
TIER VII — WRITE THE EULOGY
30. New England Patriots (30)
The Patriots should've won in Germany but turned it over twice and went 0-for-4 in the red zone. Mac Jones was sacked five times and slunk through another miserable day at 3.3 ADOT before being benched for Bailey Zappe, who promptly fake-spike threw an interception into triple coverage to end the game.
This is the third time Jones has been definitely not benched in a game. Will he still have his job coming out of the bye week?
Will Bill Belichick?
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31. Carolina Panthers (29)
Bryce Young faced another rookie QB for a second straight week and basically finished with nearly identical metrics as undrafted Tyson Bagent out of Division II Shepherd University. That's definitely what Carolina was hoping for when it traded half its draft and next year's possible No. 1 overall pick for Young, right?
But hey, at least the team overhauled its coaching staff to bring in Frank Reich so he could call a terrible game and then play for the tie at 1-7, settling for a 59-yard field goal that fell a mile short to end it.
32. New York Giants (31)
The Giants were outgained 640 to 172 yards by the Cowboys. For every yard New York gained, Dallas gained 3.7. For every three Giants yards, the Cowboys had another first down. The Cowboys gained 5.2 yards per play more than the Giants.
New York went 0-for-12 on third down. Tommy DeVito threw 27 times for 86 yards with a 32% Success Rate, and that included a full second half of garbage time.
The way things are shaping up, the Giants might have a full second half of garbage time in the season too.
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NFL Week 11 Power Rankings
- Philadelphia Eagles (Last week ranking: 1)
- Kansas City Chiefs (3)
- San Francisco 49ers (7)
- Baltimore Ravens (2)
- Detroit Lions (5)
- Dallas Cowboys (8)
- Miami Dolphins (9)
- Minnesota Vikings (11)
- Houston Texans (14)
- Cleveland Browns (13)
- Cincinnati Bengals (4)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (6)
- Buffalo Bills (10)
- Seattle Seahawks (12)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (16)
- Denver Broncos (22)
- Las Vegas Raiders (19)
- Los Angeles Chargers (15)
- New York Jets (18)
- Indianapolis Colts (20)
- New Orleans Saints (17)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (24)
- Atlanta Falcons (23)
- Los Angeles Rams (27)
- Washington Commanders (25)
- Tennessee Titans (21)
- Arizona Cardinals (32)
- Green Bay Packers (26)
- Chicago Bears (28)
- New England Patriots (30)
- Carolina Panthers (29)
- New York Giants (31)
