It's Halloween Week and it feels like Dr. Doom visited a handful of NFL teams this weekend.
The Dolphins, Bears, Vikings, and Bengals all lost as field goal favorites. The Ravens and Jets became the latest victims of the season's long-shot underdogs trend, falling as favorites of at least a touchdown. The Colts and Bucs gave away winnable division games they really needed, while the Seahawks and Cowboys were barely even competitive in their matchups.
All around the NFL, it's starting to feel like the sky is falling for these teams, with some of them falling to the fringe of the playoff race or outside entirely.
It's time to sound the alarm. Let's take a look at 10 teams that lost this weekend and debate just how bad it looks with the Week 9 Doomsday Rankings, starting with the team least in trouble up right now through the two teams already at DEFCON 1 — and find some futures value along the way.
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DEFCON 5
10. Baltimore Ravens (5-3)
The Ravens were stunned by Jameis Winston and the Browns on Sunday, making it now six of the last eight games in the longtime rivalry that finished within six points either way. Winston lit up this vulnerable Baltimore secondary for 334 yards and three TDs, the first time all season Cleveland had even scored 20 points.
It's a worrying trend for the Ravens, who keep getting upset and keep blowing leads late. We've only seen five wins by moneyline underdogs at +285 or longer this season; two of them — the Browns and Raiders — came against these Ravens, who held a fourth-quarter lead in both.
On the one hand, Baltimore will be fine. The Ravens have the deadliest offense in the league and a stout run defense, a great coach, the OPOY favorite, and the reigning MVP. Baltimore had any number of chances to win this game even on a bad day, and the Ravens are still heavily favored to win the division — with odds worth investing in at this point — and surely headed for the playoffs.
On the other hand, these losses have become a pattern, and they are damaging. Per FTN, Baltimore's odds to get the AFC No. 1 seed and the bye are now down to just 4.5%, the same odds as the Ravens missing the postseason entirely. They're only around 30% to be even a top-two seed. That's potentially a death knell for Lamar Jackson's MVP hopes, and it likely means at least two road games to get to the Super Bowl.
This is a Super Bowl caliber team and the sky is not falling, but Super Bowl caliber teams can't lose to squads like the Raiders and Browns once a month. Baltimore's elite offense loses its identity at times. The Ravens will be favored to win upcoming games against the Broncos, Bengals, Steelers, Chargers, and Eagles, but those are all losable too with this team — and Baltimore's margin for error keeps dropping.
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DEFCON 4
9. Minnesota Vikings (5-2)
Forget about the terrible missed facemask. The Vikings were very likely losing that game anyway — they would've needed to go 80 yards in a minute and a half and convert a two-point conversion just to have a chance at overtime — but it's troubling just how easily the Rams and Lions have moved the ball the last two weeks against a previously immovable defense.
Minnesota also lost more than a game on Thursday night. The Vikings lost stud LT Christian Darrisaw for the season. Minnesota's offensive line is built around two star tackles, maybe the best duo in the league, but the interior of the line is weak and will be exposed without Darrisaw. Sam Darnold will look much worse without his blindside protector too.
Suddenly this team profiles more like the Steelers or Chargers, maybe even the Browns, the rest of the way, with a very good but perhaps not elite defense and an offense that might not be good enough.
Minnesota is still 5-2 and gets to play the dregs of the AFC South the next three weeks. Win those, get to 8-2, and things are probably fine. Lose even one more, though, and things start to look pretty shaky with the final seven games all against NFC squads at .500 or better.
The Vikings are +310 to miss the playoffs at BetMGM. But unless you think they lose to the Colts on Sunday night, you may want to wait three weeks to invest after this AFC South schedule swing.
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8. Seattle Seahawks (4-4)
You might have expected the Seahawks a bit further up this list, losers of four of the last five, the latest a 31-10 drubbing at the hands of the Bills.
The numbers against Buffalo weren't pretty, but this just felt like one of those days where everything went wrong. A first-and-goal at the two turns into a snap way over Geno Smith's head. A Josh Allen interception turns into a turnover in downs at the one when Smith trips over the center's feet.
It wasn't pretty, on either side of the ball, but sometimes it's just not your day.
The truth is that we may not know much about this team yet. Seattle keeps getting killed by its best competition, but two of those losses came in that brutal three-games-in-11-days window with half the defense out injured, and DK Metcalf was a big miss against Buffalo.
To be 4-4 with a brand new coaching staff and new schemes on both sides of the ball, with all these injuries so far, is probably actually a pretty good outcome. Seattle is still tied for the division lead and has five of the six division games to go.
This team should only get better as it continues to get healthier and learn what it is. I still believe, even if books don't, pricing Seattle as the longest shot in the division with a regular season win total at 7.5. I really like that over (-155 at DraftKings) with Seattle projected at 8.5 wins at FTN and even more in my books, and I like Seattle to make the playoffs at +370 (DraftKings) and would put them at least double that implied 21%.
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DEFCON 3
7. Cincinnati Bengals (3-5)
Doesn't it just feel like we're running back the exact same Bengals season year after year at this point?
Cincinnati has a slow start, finds its offense bumbling through the middle of the season, then makes a big push late that may or may not be enough — that's the script yet again in 2024, it seems.
If you took the 10 teams on this list sans Ravens and started a new round-robin season today, the Bengals would probably be favored to win it. Joe Burrow is playing excellent football, about as well as any QB, and he and Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins can light up any defense.
But life doesn't work that way. There is no season restart, and these losses continue to pile up.
The Bengals got smashed by an Eagles offense that found itself at just the right time. Cincinnati can't run the ball or stop the run, and the offense can't stay healthy and seems to have lost its way a bit after a torrid stretch.
Close losses to the Chiefs, Ravens, and Commanders all look pretty good in hindsight — even this Eagles loss may not look bad in time — but they're all losses either way, and the wins against the Panthers, Giants, and Browns aren't exactly convincing.
Cincinnati is good enough to contend but its margin for error is gone. The Bengals have to beat the Raiders, and then they almost certainly need to win in Baltimore next Thursday night. Get that one, beat the Chargers, and you hit the bye 6-5 and feel pretty good.
But are we sure the Bengals should be priced near even odds to make the playoffs (+115 BetMGM)?
By comparison, the Broncos are 5-3, two full wins ahead, but just +146 to make the playoffs. That's an implied 41% versus 63% at FTN, and Denver projects almost a full win above its 8.5 win total (+118 FanDuel). Denver has a grueling upcoming schedule starting this week, but the Broncos defense is good and Denver has a pretty good head start on teams like Cincinnati.
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6. Miami Dolphins (2-5)
It was a welcome sight for Miami fans and football fans at large seeing Tua Tagovailoa back out there Sunday.
The Dolphins looked themselves early with an opening touchdown drive, but long 12- and 13-play drives ended in field goals and just a 13-7 lead at the half, and Miami ultimately gave one away to Arizona, 28-27.
It's hardly a devastating loss in and of itself, a fifty-fifty game against a quality opponent now leading its division, but man, Miami was that close to escaping this hellscape first two months without a QB to be found at just 3-4, right in the thick of things. By contrast, 2-5 just feels so much worse.
The return of Tagovailoa means hope. The offense will shake off the rust and find its rhythm. Miami was 11-of-15 on third downs, and DeVon Achane looked magical again with almost 100 yards rushing plus six catches for 50 yards and a score as a receiver. Achane has been dynamite as a receiver with Tagovailoa — 6/50, 7/79, and 7/76 — with just 12/49 in the other four games combined.
Tagovailoa's presence makes the WRs more valuable, helps the struggling offensive line, and puts the defense in better position.
Miami's season may come down to this Sunday in Buffalo. Win that one and this offense can beat the Rams, Raiders, and Patriots up next and suddenly the Dolphins are 6-5 and in the thick of things.
Just one problem: Miami has lost 12 of its last 13 against the Bills, and the last three haven't even been close. Mike McDaniel hasn't had answers against the Bills. He better find some by Sunday if he wants to save the season.
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DEFCON 2
5. Indianapolis Colts (4-4)
The Colts blew a winnable game against the Texans for a second time this season, with losses by three and two, and that's become a familiar feeling for Indianapolis fans. Every Colts game this season has finished with a margin under seven points in either direction. Indianapolis doesn't blow teams out or get blown out.
That's all well and good, but it sure feels like this roster deserves better at QB. Anthony Richardson was just 10-of-32 on Sunday, and outside of one long Josh Downs completion, averaged just 3.4 YPA. He had an awful interception deep in his own territory on the cusp of halftime that basically handed the Texans seven points and the game, and he made little mental mistakes along the way like failing to get out of bounds in a two-minute drill and checking himself out "tired" after a long scramble.
Richardson is still really young. He needs his reps and Indianapolis has to play the long game. But it's gotta be hard for the veterans in that locker room to give away both games against the Texans, now effectively up three games in the division, plus a winnable game to Malik Willis and the Packers. The Colts could easily be 6-2 or 7-1 with competent QB play. Instead, Joe Flacco watches Richardson go to work.
At 4-4, this is a fine enough spot for the Colts, but with the Vikings, Bills, Jets, and Lions up next, it might get dark pretty quickly unless Richardson can turn things around in a hurry.
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4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4)
Tampa Bay really shouldn't hang its head about Sunday. The Bucs lost a one-score game to the Falcons and played mostly even football by the numbers, outside of the 3-0 turnover margin that doomed them. All things considered, with the major WR injuries, that's a pretty solid result.
But it's a loss either way, and the Bucs have now been swept by the Falcons in October which effectively puts them two games back of Atlanta. They're also facing the Chiefs and 49ers next as huge underdogs, likely still without Mike Evans, staring down the barrel of 4-6 in a surprisingly competitive NFC.
Baker Mayfield is playing well, and young Jalen McMillan was close to a couple of big plays. The Bucs aren't dead, and the schedule over the final seven games is crazy soft. But Tampa Bay might need to steal one of these two against Kansas City or San Francisco to have any real shot at the postseason.
If you still believe in Baker and this team, the Bucs look bettable. FTN has them about a coin flip to make the playoffs but you can bet Tampa Bay at +172 to make at FanDuel, and there's technically some value on the division too at +425 (ESPN Bet), but you'll need some help from Atlanta on that one.
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3. Chicago Bears (4-3)
The Bears were one play away from flying high at 5-2, but what a difference a Hail Mary makes.
In an instant, what felt like a dream season suddenly felt itself spiraling down the drain. The Bears are out of the playoffs as things stand right now and only one-half game up on three more foes, and Chicago faces the No. 1 remaining strength of schedule by DVOA with all six division games remaining.
Squint and Chicago could have been 6-1, but the Bears could just as easily be 2-5. The four actual wins have come against the Titans, Panthers, Jaguars, and shorthanded Rams, not exactly a murderer's row, and two of those were not particularly convincing. The Bears very much deserved to lose to Washington too, even if it ended up taking a last-second miracle.
Chicago's defense is playoff-ready, but the offense continues to disappoint. Caleb Williams completed under half his passes for 131 yards without a score against a very beatable Commanders defense, going 2-of-12 on third down and just -0.27 EPA per play on the game with a killer fumble late. That's not good enough, and this offense hasn't been good enough under Shane Waldron.
You can bet the Bears to go under 8.5 wins at plus money at some books (+130 Caesars) and that looks like a strong play with the tough upcoming schedule. This Hail Mary might be the beginning of the end.
Chicago is playing with house money this season, but it kinda feels like that house is now on fire.
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DEFCON 1
2. Dallas Cowboys (3-4)
At 3-4, the Cowboys are the NFC 13-seed right now ahead of just the Giants, Saints, and Panthers. They have three blah wins and four losses where the defense got absolutely rolled, unless you count fake comebacks against the Ravens and 49ers late.
Dallas was totally lifeless once again versus the 49ers, even with San Francisco missing virtually all of its vaunted weapons. The Cowboys were rested coming out of a bye week and licking their wounds after getting thrashed by the Lions, and Dallas still couldn't find a way. The Cowboys came out of halftime and immediately gave up an easy TD, Dak Prescott threw a bad pick that led to another TD, and that was that.
Maybe for the season.
It's possible Dallas is favored against only the Giants and Panthers the entire rest of the season. What's good about this team? The Cowboys can't run the ball or stop the run to save their lives. Mike Zimmer's defense continues to disappoint. CeeDee Lamb hit 100 yards for the first time all season mostly because the 49ers stopped covering him for a quarter, but he and Prescott haven't been good either.
Dallas does still play both the Eagles and Commanders twice, so the Cowboys technically still control their own fate. But would you want Jerry Jones and this team controlling your fate?
Dallas looks cooked. FTN projects them at 7.7 wins, and even that could be generous if things really go south. The Cowboys under 8.5 has value at +104 (FanDuel), and there's technically even some value at -400 to miss the playoffs (DraftKings), with FTN giving Dallas under 14% at the postseason. Yikes.
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1. New York Jets (2-6)
And then there are the hapless Jets.
Can we create a new DEFCON warning for New York? Can we just call them JETCON?
Oh this thing is OVER over.
The Jets have lost five in a row after falling to the Patriots as touchdown favorites, and the way New York lost feels appropriate. The awful special teams missed a short field goal and an extra point, four blown points in a three-point loss, and the once stellar defense was effectively on the field for New York's funeral, allowing the Patriots to march right down the field 70 yards in 12 plays for the winning score.
Aaron Rodgers hasn't been the only problem, but he certainly hasn't been good enough. Nothing about this team has. The Jets just keep chasing solutions — they're 0-3 since firing Robert Saleh, two of those losses as favorites — and have yet to find the right scapegoat.
Is there still time to trade Davante Adams and Haason Reddick to an actual playoff contender? Cuz that ain't the Jets. At 2-6, New York would pick fourth in the upcoming draft as things stand, and this was with a soft opening schedule. The next four opponents are at .500 or better, and they got unlucky with the now-healthy Rams and Dolphins waiting for three games late.
This isn't just bad luck, though. The Jets were the better team on Sunday but lost anyway, and that's the story of the season. They're not as bad as 2-6 would indicate, but they're 2-6 anyway — just never good enough.
Some books have the Jets win total at 6.5 but there are still a couple of 7.5s out there worth snagging (+105, BetMGM). FTN projects the Jets at 5.9 wins with under 6% chance at the postseason.
It's over for the Jets.
It's been over. It was always over. It's still over.
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