One third of the way through the NFL season, the NFC is an absolute mess.
The AFC looks easy enough — the Chiefs, Ravens, Texans and Bills are all leading their respective divisions as huge odds-on favorites.
Over in the NFC, it's absolute chaos.
The Vikings, Commanders, Bucs, and Seahawks are all at least tied for the division lead. The Eagles and Cowboys are reeling. The 49ers have lost three already. The entire NFC North leads the league in point differential — first through fourth — though the Lions just lost DPOY front runner Aidan Hutchinson.
With so much up in the air, that has to mean value on NFC futures.
Let's run through an NFC Power Rankings and see if we can unscramble this mess — and find some futures bets along the way.
Tier 6 — Pour One Out For the Island
16. Panthers (1-5)
Carolina won its kitchen sink game when it swapped out Bryce Young for Andy Dalton.
The Panthers have been outscored by an average score of 24-8 in the first half alone the other five games, with at least three TDs allowed in the first half of every game. This defense is running on empty. Carolina is the only NFC team in the bottom seven of DVOA.
RIP, Panthers Island.
Tier 5 — It's Already Over in the Crowded NFC
15. Saints (2-4)
Remember when New Orleans was 2-0 and Klint Kubiak was already lining up head coaching jobs?
The free-falling Saints have lost four straight after giving up 51 to the Bucs. The offense has cratered with injuries at virtually every position, and now Dennis Allen's defense has forgotten how to tackle, too.
A once promising season might have accidentally turned into a long-awaited tank.
14. Rams (2-4)
Los Angeles may move up a touch in these rankings once Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua finally return, but it already looks like a lost season.
Matthew Stafford just hasn't been good enough without the help of great WRs or viable blocking, and the Rams defense was dead on arrival.
L.A. is running the ball well and could still be a top-10 offense if it ever gets healthy, but by then it will already be too late.
13. Giants (2-4)
Respect to the Giants, more below average than bad or terrible by most metrics. The defensive front has been as good as advertised, and Brian Daboll is keeping this team competitive.
In another conference, maybe the Giants would be the Chargers or Broncos.
In the real world, we are rapidly approaching the end of the Daniel Jones era in New York. And maybe that's not all that bad.
12. Cardinals (2-4)
Arizona looks a year away still.
Kyler Murray is healthy again and this offense has had good moments, but offensive coordinator Drew Petzing is still figuring things out and needs to get back to a better run game and more consistency.
The Cardinals defense is outperforming its talent level under Nick Rallis, but that can only get you so far with maybe the least talent in the league on that side of the ball. The pass defense remains terrible.
Arizona has enough offense to spring an upset any given Sunday, but that may be the ceiling for now.
Tier 4 — NFC East Favorites, WYD?!
11. Cowboys (3-3)
Hoo boy, it's ugly out here for the Cowboys.
Dallas got molly whopped by the Lions 47-9 in a game that might have been even more embarrassing than the score. Detroit didn't even take the Cowboys seriously. And why would they? Dallas has allowed almost 31 PPG its last seven games, with 44+ allowed to Jordan Love, Derek Carr, and now Jared Goff.
The only silver linings you'll find on this squad right now are in its uniforms.
The Cowboys rank 14th among 16 NFC teams in DVOA. They're one spot worse on offense alone. The Cowboys rank in the bottom eight both running and passing, on both offense and defense. Dallas ranks 29th on early-down EPA per play offensively, with a minus-42 point differential on the season. It's all terrible.
Mike Zimmer's defense should get healthier out of the bye with Micah Parsons and DaRon Bland set to return, but good luck once the games start up again. Dallas's next five: 49ers, Falcons, Eagles, Texans, Commanders. It's possible the Cowboys are only favored twice again all season.
It might already be over for Mike McCarthy. The defense is at least excusable due to injuries, but the offense has no excuses and Dak Prescott is playing well below his standard.
If you have any hope of a Dallas turnaround, Micah Parsons at +5000 for Defensive Player of the Year (FanDuel) might be your angle. That's worth a nibble in a suddenly wide-open race with Aidan Hutchinson out.
10. Eagles (3-2)
It was understandable for Philadelphia to start 2-2 with a top-heavy roster that saw injuries to A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Lane Johnson, plus new coordinators and systems on both sides of the ball. It's far less excusable getting those three guys back and two full weeks to prepare for a pathetic Browns team only to escape with a four-point win.
The Eagles are 3-2 but have a negative point differential, and this team isn't all that far away from 0-5 with ugly one-score wins over Green Bay, New Orleans and Cleveland.
Vic Fangio's defense hasn't been good by any measure. The offense has more room for hope with Saquon Barkley running the ball well, and the passing should tick up with the star WRs back. Philadelphia has a soft, winnable schedule. There's a world where this all rounds into shape by December.
But are you sure the core isn't rotten?
Jalen Hurts is no longer particularly effective as a runner, and he still isn't throwing to the middle of the field and has been poor on late downs.
And the coaching staff may just be done. Nick Sirianni is jawing at the home fans after a close win over the Browns and making multiple questionable decisions every game, and neither new coordinator has been great.
Books are still valuing the Eagles like the preseason version, not the real-life one, so Philly futures are badly overpriced. If you believe in Philadelphia — I'm not ready to write the Eagles off just yet — you're probably better off investing game-to-game.
If you're out, the metrics suggest serious value on the under 10.5, with FTN projecting the Eagles at just 9.0 wins and a serious doubt to make the playoffs at all.
Tier 3 — The Metrics Don't Match the Record
9. Bears (4-2)
Rookie Caleb Williams is the big story for the Bears after throwing four touchdowns in London, but the truth is that Chicago's biggest improvement and standout unit continues to be the other side of the ball, especially the pass defense.
Williams' numbers have been juiced against the league's three worst defenses the past three weeks, and even then, Chicago ranks 14th among NFC teams in DVOA offensively. All four Bears wins have come against teams currently sitting on one win.
This has been an absolute cream puff schedule, but Chicago faces the toughest remaining schedule in the entire league, including all six division games. That should've made this a great time to sell high, but books have already sniffed it out with Chicago's win total at 8.5 and odds at -188 to miss the playoffs.
The books clearly don't believe in the Bears yet — and neither should you. The best way to fade the Bears might be another bet on Jayden Daniels for Offensive Rookie of the Year. The gap between those players and their respective offenses is far bigger than the gap in odds would imply.
Speaking of which…
8. Commanders (4-2)
Washington held its own in Baltimore, with a respectable enough seven-point loss, and this offense might approach triple digits against the Panthers on Sunday. That Week 1 loss to the Bucs doesn't look so bad in hindsight either.
So, why are the Commanders so low?
Washington has wins against the Giants, Bengals, Cardinals and Browns. Meh. The Commanders would've lost to the Giants if they had a kicker, and they very nearly lost to the Bengals, so this team could easily be 3-3 or even 2-4.
The defense is awful and just got even worse with the loss of DT Jonathan Allen, its best player, for the season. That unit isn't going to get any better.
The offense looks great, but dig into the underlying metrics and there's a lot to be worried about. Washington is a perfect 9-for-9 on fourth-down so far this season — I probably don't have to tell you that's due for regression. So is Washington's second-best 49% conversion rate on third down.
The Commanders have an outlandish 0.83 EPA per play on late downs for the season, more than double any other offense, a number that practically screams outlier. Washington is relying on a rookie QB coming up with miraculous explosive plays on late downs, and there's little chance that lasts. When it inevitably comes crashing back to earth, the Commanders probably will too, with a defense this bad.
The schedule is pretty winnable if Washington's offense is real, but the truth is that this team profiles similarly to the Cardinals, with a good offense and terrible defense. The question is whether the head start and downgrade to the Eagles and Cowboys will be enough for that to matter.
7. Falcons (4-2)
We all dumped on Atlanta after Kirk Cousins' terrible Week 1 start, but the Falcons have quietly been pretty good since. The offense ranks sixth in DVOA, running the heck out of the ball with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier and getting Cousins and the passing game going too.
Atlanta has gotten a little lucky, going 3-1 in four coin-flip games, but that was the toughest scheduling stretch of the season and those wins count just as much. The schedule gets pretty easy from here, and the Falcons are now 3-0 in the NFC South and 4-0 in the NFC.
If you believe in Atlanta, you should see pretty playable lines against the Seahawks, Bucs, Cowboys and Saints over the next month. The Falcons are catching these opponents at the right time.
It's not inconceivable for this relatively average team to push 12 or 13 wins if things keep breaking right.
Tier 2 — I Believe There May Be Something There
6. Seahawks (3-3)
Let's start here — I'm stubbornly ranking Seattle much higher than the Seahawks deserve to be.
There's a lot to be troubled by in the underlying metrics.
Seattle's defense has plummeted from first to 18th by DVOA over this three-game losing streak, and maybe that shouldn't be surprising. The defense leads the league at a ridiculous -0.51 EPA per play on late downs but ranks fifth worst on early downs, belying a defense that's coming up with outlier big plays late to make up for a poor effort.
Those big stops dried up the last few weeks against top offenses, right as the defense ran into a flurry of injuries. Suddenly Mike Macdonald's guys are reeling, staring a potential five-game losing streak right in the face with Atlanta and Buffalo up next.
Ryan Grubb's offense has been a mixed bag. Seattle ranks in the top 11 both running and passing by DVOA, but the rushing attack has been inconsistent and the offensive line unreliable. That's left a wildly aggressive passing attack asking Geno Smith to throw a huge number of times each game. When it works, it's great; when it doesn't, that ailing defense is right back on the field.
Seattle is 0-3 in the NFC, key for potential playoff tiebreakers, and just lost maybe its most important game of the season at home against San Francisco. Things are not going well. By the profile and metrics alone, I'm ranking the Seahawks between four and six spots too high.
I still can't quit this team. Seattle ranks third in my roster and coaching matrix. Not third in the division, nor even the NFC — third in the entire league.
There's something brewing here if the Seahawks get healthy and the pieces come together. I still believe.
5. Packers (4-2)
I'm not sure we know much about the Packers yet.
Green Bay's offensive profile is elite with top-six rankings both running and passing, but much of that has more to do with the games without Jordan Love than the ones with him.
With Love, the Packers have been hit-or-miss, with explosives mostly offsetting a lower success rate. Love is averaging three touchdown passes per game, leading the league, but he's also at 1.5 interceptions per game — a pace for an absurd 45-TD, 23-INT season.
The turnovers are flying both ways for this team. The defense has forced 17 turnovers in six games, with almost one-in-four opponent drives ending in turnover. Take away those turnovers and this defense has been poor, third worst in the NFL by EPA per play on early downs. Jeff Hafley's unit is coming up with big plays on late downs and striking oil with constant turnovers, but that can't last.
The Packers have No. 1 offense potential if Love rounds into form and everything clicks, but the special teams are still bad and the defense might be too if the turnovers ever dry up.
This team feels like one that could get hot at the right time and win the Super Bowl — or run too hot and cold to even earn a postseason berth.
It's tough to bet on a team like that, but you'll want to bet the outliers.
4. Bucs (4-2)
Ready for the craziest stat of the article? Exactly one NFL team ranks in the top 11 by DVOA both running and passing on both offense and defense: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Bucs might be pretty good, in part because they might not be bad at anything really.
The run defense remains stout with Vita Vea healthy, and the pass defense is getting healthy for Todd Bowles. The rushing attack is finding some answers for the first time in ages in Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker, and Baker Mayfield's passing has been downright lethal at times.
New offensive coordinator Liam Coen is really doing some things with this offense. Tampa Bay dropped nearly 600 yards on a pretty good Saints defense en route to 51 points. The Bucs dropped 37, 33 and 30 points on the Commanders, Eagles and Falcons, all potential playoff teams. This offense is good.
The Bucs took an ugly loss against Denver and probably should've lost to the Lions. But they didn't, and they now have impressive wins over Washington and Philadelphia — plus early head-to-head tiebreakers on all these teams, too.
I've been slow buying into Bucs futures, and books still are as well — so there's time to invest.
FTN projects Tampa Bay at 10.3 wins, a 44% chance at a division title, and a 75% shot at the playoffs. That implies value on the Bucs to make the playoffs at -130 (BetMGM), just 57% implied, and to win the NFC South at +185 (ESPN Bet), an implied 35%.
The Bucs have about a 1-in-4 shot at a top-two seed right now, with the No. 2 seed their most likely season outcome. Baker Mayfield leads the league in passing touchdowns with 15. So, if you're ready to dream in creamsicle orange, you might want to dream big. Mayfield is +4000 to win MVP at BetRivers. He'd have a tremendous narrative argument if the Bucs make a run at the No. 1 seed.
Maybe you prefer playoff upside? A top-two seed means a home game or two til the cusp of a Super Bowl. FTN has the Bucs at 9.2% to win the NFC, fourth best in the conference. With the Eagles, Cowboys, Commanders, and Bears priced ahead at some books, that leaves value on Tampa Bay at +2200 (Caesars).
Your first decision may come Monday night.
The Bucs return home to Tampa metro after a devastating hurricane with a chance to host the Ravens in front of an emotional home crowd. The Bucs may be able to slow Baltimore's rushing attack and Coen's offense can throw on a beatable pass defense.
I'm planting my flag early. Bucs outright Monday night at +180 (FanDuel) and if Tampa Bay wins, the buy-low window on futures will be closed. Ride the division, playoffs, NFC escalator if you dare.
Tier 1 — The Best of a Flawed Field
3. 49ers (3-3)
You already know the 49ers have as much talent and upside as any team in the NFC.
Even without Christian McCaffrey or Javon Hargrave, this team ranks top five by DVOA on both offense and defense. San Francisco is especially dominating in the passing game, top three both ways, and that's always going to be a successful way to operate in the modern NFL.
The 49ers are coming off their most complete win of the season in Seattle. Brock Purdy is playing great ball, adding value with his legs in particular, and we likely still haven't even seen the best of this team. San Francisco hasn't been healthy yet, and it's gotten relatively unlucky on late downs on both offense and defense.
The 49ers are good.
Here's the problem: They're also 3-3, and the next seven games come against teams .500 or better: Chiefs, Cowboys, Bucs, Seahawks, Packers, Bills and Bears.
San Francisco is already 1-2 in the division and 1-3 in the NFC. That's not great in any tiebreaker scenario, and there's no sign of McCaffrey anytime in the near future, with Jordan Mason now hurt too.
As good as the 49ers are, those three losses still count, and there are likely more losses to come. Right now FTN gives San Francisco only 18% at a top-two seed, with the most likely outcome the 4-seed and worst NFC division winner.
That means at least two road games just to win the conference, and it means San Francisco is badly overpriced as the clear NFC favorite at every book. We can't bet 49ers To Not Win the NFC, but we can avoid it — and that means there's value pretty much everywhere else.
2. Lions (4-1)
Aidan Hutchinson is a monster loss, about as important a loss as any non-QB in the NFL to a contending team.
Hutchinson was the Defensive Player of the Year favorite and Detroit's only serious pass rush threat. Without him, the Lions pass defense is in big trouble, severely lacking anyone who can consistently pressure the QB and leaving a group of already underperforming corners badly exposed, especially if Carlton Davis misses any time.
The Lions rank 4th defensively by DVOA, but the numbers under the hood don't check out. Detroit ranks 26th by EPA per play on early downs without turnovers, another team relying on turnovers and big late-down plays (where they rank 2nd) to make stops. That all gets even harder without Hutchinson.
It's a crying shame.
Detroit is the only team in the NFL that currently ranks top eight on offense, defense, and special teams. The Lions are 4-1, and they badly outplayed a good Bucs team in the one loss. This should be the class of the NFC and No. 1 in these Power Rankings.
Instead, this defense just took a gut punch at the worst time, with three of the next four Lions games on the road in Minnesota, Green Bay, and Houston.
I cannot recommend Detroit futures right now. This offense is great but not elite, and the defense is due a major letdown without Hutchinson. And with the Lions and 49ers far overpriced at the top of the NFC and vulnerable, and the Eagles and Cowboys reeling, the conference is absolutely ripe for a sleeper run.
1. Vikings (5-0)
Is there really any question who should rank No. 1?
The Vikings are 5-0 and have trailed for under four minutes all season. Brian Flores's defense is elite by every metric and has already been tested by some top quarterbacks and offenses.
Consider that Minnesota ranks first against both the run and the pass after games against C.J. Stroud, Jordan Love, Aaron Rodgers, and Brock Purdy. This is a good 5-0 record, including a 34-7 win over the 5-1 Texans; even 28-6 on the road against the Giants in the opener looks more impressive in hindsight.
The Vikings have a two-game lead on the entire NFC and just played the toughest part of the schedule. The Lions are up next — fresh off those big defensive injuries — and then things are pretty soft until a tough final three against Seattle, Green Bay, and Detroit.
Minnesota's offense has been relatively average by the numbers, though against a tough schedule defensively, and Sam Darnold has looked shaky at times and has yet to have to play from behind, off script. Kevin O'Connell has had answers so far, but it's much easier playing on your terms. Aaron Jones is a big loss for the time being, but Minnesota hasn't even had Jordan Addison or T.J. Hockenson much yet.
In a wild and seemingly wide-open NFC, the Vikings might just be Occam's razor.
FTN has Minnesota at 55% to win the division and over 50% at a top-two seed, with a whopping 40% shot at the 1-seed. That could mean two home games from a Super Bowl in a stadium that's become one of the best home-field advantages in football.
The Vikings are +140 to win the division (FanDuel), implied 42%, a clear value especially after the Hutchinson injury. You're paying a premium for a Sam Darnold MVP ticket at this point and there will almost certainly be a better buy point after some mistakes — or pivoting to Justin Jefferson as a +12500 long shot (BetMGM).
If you dare believe in Minnesota's postseason chances, FTN puts the Vikings at 22.5% to win the NFC, implying almost 1.5x value on a +600 NFC ticket at FanDuel.
SKOL.
