Action Network's NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are out for Week 11.
These rankings are designed to help identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed concept overview. You can also check out our season primer to understand how to use these rankings to bet on the NFL.
An NFL game must qualify for one of the following three criteria to be considered a "Luck Game."
- A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings.
- A Luck% difference of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season.
- A Luck% difference of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later.
The unlucky team in matchups that fit one of those criteria is 126-72-6 (63.2%) against the spread (ATS) in the regular season other than the last week of the season when using closing lines — the hardest lines to beat.
In Week 10, unlucky teams in Luck Matchups that met our thresholds went 1-0 ATS, moving those teams to 13-11-1 (54%) against the spread (ATS) on the season.
Luck Totals must meet one of three criteria:
- A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
The three Luck Totals in Week 10 were all Luck Unders that went 2-1 to the under. That moves Luck Unders to 8-8-0 on the season, while Luck Overs are 4-0-0. As a whole, Luck Totals are 12-8-0 (60%) this season.
All luck-based bets meeting any side or total criteria are 25-19-1 (56.7%).
Here's how our NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 11.
NFL Week 11 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.
