Thanksgiving weekend in the NFL was dominated by the favorites, who finished the week 12-4 both straight up and against the spread..
The dust is starting to settle on the NFL Power Rankings for Week 13 as two-thirds of the season go into the books. The Eagles fought off another opponent late to remain at the top, but the gap is starting to shorten as five other teams join Philadelphia in the inner circle of Super Bowl contenders.
Meanwhile, both wild-card races are tighter than ever at the fringes, as the Steelers (No. 9), Packers (16) and Rams (18) rise to season-highs in the ranks. All but three teams around the league remain within two wins of the final wild-card spot in their conference.
Anything can still happen with six weeks to go. These are your Week 13 NFL Power Rankings.
NFL Week 13 Power Rankings
(To skip directly to a specific team, click on the team's name in the table below!)
TIER I — THE INNER CIRCLE
1. Philadelphia Eagles (Last week ranking: 1)
The Eagles keep finding ways to win.
Philadelphia was thoroughly outplayed by the Bills, who outgained the Eagles by 127 yards, ran 27 more plays, had the ball for 14 more minutes … and none of it mattered. The Bills mangled the late-game execution, Philly made the big plays it needed, and the Eagles won a fourth straight game in which they also lost the yardage battle by at least 98.
The Eagles are now 7-1 in one-score games, with five wins against teams .500 or worse and only three all season by more than a touchdown. History says that matters — not because it portends "winning DNA" or some other made-up concept to explain luck, but because it's bad news to keep playing coin-flip games against mediocre and subpar teams, because you'll eventually lose them.
Philadelphia's defense allows 0.29 EPA per play on third downs for the season, worst in the NFL. The Eagles had a difficult time getting off the field against Josh Allen on Sunday, and it nearly cost them. They have allowed 8.8% third-down conversion over expectation, per RBSDM, also worst in the NFL.
The Eagles remain a begrudging No. 1 in the Power Rankings at 10-1, but let's see how their profile holds up against the 49ers and Cowboys the next two weeks.
Let's just say I'm not exactly investing in their futures.
2. San Francisco 49ers (3)
Compare the Eagles to the 49ers, who played a similar level of opponent —on the road instead of at home like Philly — in a tough holiday environment. The Niners thrashed the Seahawks in a game that was over before it even started. That's what great teams are supposed to do to outmatched opponents.
San Francisco is playing lights-out football again and has been all season outside of a brief stretch when a ton of key players were injured. That gives us our second No. 1 vs. No. 2 Power Rankings battle of the season as the 49ers head to Philadelphia. Win there, and the Niners will have a great shot at the NFC's No. 1 seed with only one real test left on the schedule, against our No. 3 on Christmas night.
If you're buying a Super Bowl ticket this week, the 49ers are the play. San Francisco is +450 to win it all (BetRivers), implied 18.2% versus 27.8% at FTN, over a 50% edge in our favor. There's also value on the 49ers to win the NFC at +200 (FanDuel), implied 33.3% versus 47.0% at FTN. Brock Purdy still has real value to win MVP at +1700 (DraftKings), too, considering San Francisco has an 83% chance at a top-2 seed.
3. Baltimore Ravens (2)
It was a relatively uninspiring win for the Ravens Sunday night against the Chargers, with a disappointing night of stats from Lamar Jackson against a bad defense. This was more about L.A. losing than Baltimore winning, but credit the Ravens defense and run game for getting the job done.
Baltimore is probably still the best AFC futures ticket to buy, but now might not be the time as books have finally caught up after a month of value, at least on the regular-season numbers. FTN still has the Ravens as the second most likely team to win the Super Bowl at 20.0%, leaving clear value on a +800 ticket (DraftKings).
It's concerning seeing this offense struggle to pass without Mark Andrews, though, so you're forgiven if you want to wait this week.
4. Dallas Cowboys (5)
The Cowboys continue to roll opponents, now 8-3 with seven of those eight wins by at least 23 points. DaRon Bland set an NFL record with a fifth pick-6, and Dak Prescott and the passing game continue to put up outrageous numbers since Dallas's bye week.
Thanksgiving went well, but we need to see the Cowboys do it against some real competition, and we're about to get plenty of opportunity. Up next for Dallas: Seattle, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Miami, Detroit all in a row. If the Cowboys really are this good, let's see a 23-point win against a couple of these teams, too.
5. Miami Dolphins (6)
Black Friday wasn't pretty football but it was football nonetheless, and the Dolphins defense impressed once again. Miami allowed only 159 yards, and heading into the fourth quarter that number was just 45, with only one first down. Tim Boyle or not, that's utter domination.
It's wild to say this after Raheem Mostert, Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill each had at least 94 yards against an elite Jets defense, but Miami's offense still isn't reaching its September heights these days. Tua Tagovailoa had three turnovers, and the Dolphins have no real short-yardage solutions.
That stuff doesn't matter against the Jets, but it might come back to haunt Miami later.
6. Kansas City Chiefs (4)
On the one hand, the Chiefs fell behind Las Vegas, 14-0. On the other hand, Kansas City outscored the Raiders, 31-3, the rest of the way with its best stretch of football in at least a month. Rookie Rashee Rice broke out with 107 yards on eight catches, and the Chiefs even scored in a second half!
Make no mistake about it, though — this offense is still on watch. For now, Kansas City gets the last spot in the plump inner circle thanks to Patrick Mahomes and a great defense. But the offense still needs to find some answers.
TIER II — TEAMS THAT CAN WIN A PLAYOFF GAME
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (9)
The Jaguars restored order in the AFC South by holding on for dear life in a win over the Texans. Up two in the division, Jacksonville now sets its eyes on a bigger prize: the AFC's No. 1 seed that it's currently tied for and multiple postseason wins.
The Jaguars offense is finally starting to click, perhaps at just the right time. Trevor Lawrence outplayed C.J. Stroud on Sunday, no small feat these days, with a monster 364-yard effort. He was especially great on late downs, where he put up an outrageous 1.14 EPA per play on his attempts and repeatedly killed Houston's outmatched pass defense.
The MVP race is pretty wide open. Lawrence has only 12 passing TDs in 11 games, numbers with no shot at the award. But the Jaguars have about a 1-in-6 chance at the AFC's No. 1 seed right now, and Lawrence is by far the biggest reason why. If he gets hot late and the Jags make a run, anything could happen. Numbers or not, +4000 (Caesars) is too long a price for a golden boy QB on a potential 1-seed.
8. Detroit Lions (7)
It was a throwback Thanksgiving effort for the Lions, as in a throwback to every other Detroit Thanksgiving game ever. The Lions choked instantly out of the gates, with Jared Goff putting up a second straight clunker of turnovers against a division opponent, and this time Detroit couldn't recover.
The Lions offense was fine, mostly. Detroit moved the ball throughout the game and actually finished with almost 100 yards more than the Packers. The Lions lost because of three lost fumbles and four turnovers on downs. But Detroit's defense is a bigger worry, allowing 7.0 yards per play to Green Bay and getting lit up by Jordan Love and Justin Fields in consecutive games.
The metrics still paint Detroit's defense as above average, but the unit is trending quickly in the wrong direction, and Goff is, too. The Lions are not even a lock in the division with the midseason push from Minnesota and Green Bay, so they need to get things in order again quickly.
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (13)
The Steelers finally outgained an opponent for the first time all season and did so convincingly, piling up 199 more yards than the Bengals in a game that was never as close as the final 16-10 score indicated.
In their first game after firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada, the Steelers had 400 yards for the first time since before Canada started, ending a 44-game streak. Pat Freiermuth had a huge game, the run game dominated, and Pittsburgh controlled the middle of the field — a novel concept! — as Kenny Pickett got to the play-action, moved the chains on third down, and actually looked comfortable.
The Steelers are, once again, good. Those early wins were fluky but the team is actually coming together and now sits at 7-4 with home games against Arizona and New England up next.
Barring disaster, that's an easy path to 9-4, and that makes Pittsburgh's over 10.5 an absolute must-play at +164 (FanDuel), even if you want to hedge out or try to middle the bet later. There's also value on Pittsburgh to make the playoffs at -235, implied 70% versus 84% at FTN. And if you really want to get wild, FTN has the Steelers as the ninth most likely conference champion — same as these Power Rankings — with their 5.6% about double the implied odds of +3500 at DraftKings.
10. Houston Texans (8)
Sunday was a real gut punch for the Texans. They got a pretty rough whistle and then doinked a 58-yard field goal off the crossbar in the final minute to fall to the Jaguars and likely bury Texans Island's division hopes for good.
Let's be clear about two things, though. First, that loss was on Houston, not the refs. The Texans defense could not get off the field on third down, and C.J. Stroud wasn't good enough on late downs either and ate a couple killer sacks late, finally looking like a rookie.
But second, the Island is not closed for business. Jacksonville is tied for the 1-seed and the Texans went toe-to-toe with the Jags after already beating them earlier. Since Houston's 0-2 start, the Texans' only three losses have come down to a field goal in the final minute of regulation.
There's plenty of work to do, but this still feels like a team that can make the postseason and win a playoff game.
TIER III — THESE ARE NOT THE PEERS BUFFALO WANTED
11. Buffalo Bills (11)
As the Eagles keep finding ways to win, the Bills just keep finding ways to lose.
Josh Allen played one of the best games of the season, throwing for 339 yards and two scores and rushing for 81 yards and two more. He was unstoppable on third down as Buffalo went 13-of-22 with a 61% Success Rate, and he added over a touchdown of value as a scrambler. This was Allen in God Mode, the MVP, the only guy in the league capable of looking Patrick Mahomes in the eye — and Buffalo lost anyway.
Sean McDermott might need to go. He mangled the end-of-game and overtime management, and he's ultimately responsible for the barrage of penalties Buffalo got, too. Josh Allen falls to 0-6 in overtime for his career, but Allen was magnificent in this game, the reason Buffalo even had a chance, not the reason it lost.
McDermott and the defense failed Allen yet again, and time is running out on Buffalo. The Bills are 6-6 overall — 1-4 on the road and 2-6 in one-score games with five AFC losses already, important for tiebreakers. They might need to run the table — and they still have games against the Chiefs, Cowboys and Dolphins waiting.
The Bills have a bye week to figure it all out, but it might already be over for them.
12. Denver Broncos (14)
The Broncos keep winning, now five in a row with the last four against teams .500 or better. But is Denver winning these games, or are the Broncos just watching opponents lose them?
Denver lucked into a second straight third-string QB and got outrageous turnover luck again as the Browns fumbled five times and handed Denver three turnovers. The Broncos defense also played well — against P.J. Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson — but the offense did little of note on its own merit.
Don't be fooled by these Broncos. This is still a mediocre team, just one that got historically unprecedented turnover luck over the past month. When that stuff fades, Denver will, too. The best futures bet on the board looks like Broncos to miss the playoffs at -155 (DraftKings), implied 60.8% versus 74.1% at FTN. That's a better play than the under 9.5 since Denver could go over and miss the playoffs at 10-7 anyway.
13. Cleveland Browns (10)
Denver's win came at Cleveland's expense, and the Browns are out of answers offensively. Cleveland was an ugly 2-of-13 on third down and 2-of-5 on fourth down as the coaching staff continues to try and find find a solution.
Cleveland was 5-1 with Deshaun Watson starting, but the Browns are 2-3 without him, failing to top 20 points in any game and scoring 13.4 PPG. Now add in a potential injury to DPOY favorite Myles Garrett, and the walls are caving in quickly.
14. Seattle Seahawks (15)
Seattle got demolished so badly by the 49ers on Thanksgiving night that the game is barely worth discussing. Geno Smith was sacked six times with a -0.33 EPA per play. Between the arm injury and the poor recent play, it's now fair to wonder whether Smith survives the season as the starter.
Are the Seahawks still a playoff team?
They're more likely to miss than make at this point. The Vikings' loss on Monday night helped, increasing the Seahawks' chances by about 5%, but Seattle is still 60.5% to miss the postseason at FTN. The Seahawks are 6-5 and face the Cowboys, 49ers, and Eagles up next, so there's a very direct path to 6-8. I already bet Seattle to miss the playoffs last week, but there's still some value at -134 (Caesars), implied 57.3%, since the odds should only shorten these next three weeks and leave you options from there.
15. Minnesota Vikings (12)
Well that was the Thursday-est Monday Night Football game of all time, and November must be about over, because Josh Dobbs has turned back into a pumpkin. Dobbs already leads the league in fumbles and now added four interceptions Monday night. He and the Vikings failed to convert a third down until the fourth quarter and managed just 242 yards against a mediocre-at-best Bears defense.
Life comes at you fast in the NFL (Not For Long). A week ago, Minnesota was 6-4 on a five-game win streak. Now the Vikings are 6-6 heading into the bye with a daunting final three-week schedule against the Lions, Packers, then Lions again. Minnesota still controls its destiny, but midnight may already be coming for Cinderella.
TIER IV — HARK! A PULSE!!
16. Green Bay Packers (22)
Don't look now, but here come the Packers.
Green Bay looked downright good on Thanksgiving, and Jordan Love suddenly looks like a real NFL quarterback and long-term starter. Love is reading the field faster and making better reads, and he played mistake-free football against Detroit, lighting up a top-10 DVOA defense for 268 yards and three scores without a sack or a turnover.
The Packers are young, and the road will be bumpy, but suddenly this team is 5-6 and a half game out of a wide-open NFC playoff picture. We just talked about the Seahawks and Vikings heading in the wrong direction.
There are only four NFC playoff locks right now, and Green Bay might actually be the next most likely conference playoff team after the Eagles, Cowboys, 49ers and Lions. FTN has the Packers at 57.5% to make the postseason, just a hair behind the Vikings and Saints but still a clear value compared to +110 (BetRivers), implied 47.6%. You can also bet over 8.5 at +133 if you prefer, though it's worth noting that there's a very real chance an NFC team could make the playoffs at 8-9, so the make-playoff bet has more outs.
The Packers host Mahomes and the Chiefs on Sunday night. Win that one and everything is in play, maybe even the division.
17. Indianapolis Colts (18)
The Colts might be one of the most nondescript teams in the league, but Shane Steichen and this staff keep pulling the right strings and finding ways to win, and if the playoffs started today, the Colts would shockingly be a 7-seed. Pretty remarkable for a team missing its starting QB, though now Indianapolis could be without Jonathan Taylor again, too.
The Colts have a very winnable remaining schedule: Titans, Bengals, Steelers, Falcons, Raiders, Texans. Indianapolis looks in this for the long haul.
18. Los Angeles Rams (23)
Where did Kyren Williams come from? The sophomore could barely get on the field a year ago, but he's been a breakout star in 2023, and he returned from a long injury absence to put up the biggest game of his career with 204 combined yards and (as predicted) two scores. We often think of Sean McVay as a passing genius, but the truth is that his teams are always best when the run game is cooking.
The Rams ran for 228 yards on Sunday and rolled up the Cardinals, and this Los Angeles offense has been fire when healthy this season. Actually that's hardly even a true statement, since this was the first game all year with Matt Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua all on the field, and Kupp was a question mark and barely made an impact.
This defense is improving but young and mostly bad, so it'll have to be the offense if the Rams are to make a push. So how good is this attack? We're about to find out with games against the Browns and Ravens the next two weeks. Add in games later against the Saints and 49ers, and Los Angeles still has a lot of work to do before we can put them in the playoff picture.
19. Atlanta Falcons (24)
It wasn't pretty against the Saints — is it ever for Atlanta? — but the Falcons got a huge win and are now leading the division. Desmond Ridder didn't look much better in his return, rushing throws and throwing another brutal interception in the red zone, but the Falcons did a better job getting the ball to Bijan Robinson and Drake London and letting them combine for 214 yards and a pair of TDs.
The real MVP of this team, though, is safety Jessie Bates. He has been one best free agent acquisitions in the league, and his pick-6 flipped the game and might have saved the season for Atlanta, effectively a 10-point swing in a game Atlanta won by nine. He continues to make huge plays at the most important times.
Atlanta is tied with the Saints atop the division at 5-6, one game ahead of the Bucs, but the Falcons are now 3-0 in the division with a head-to-head win against both. That should give Atlanta a clear advantage, but it's hard to feel great about this team with its over-reliance on Ridder and questionable play-calling.
Has an entire division ever fired all of its head coaches before in the same season? Asking for an NFC South friend.
20. New Orleans Saints (17)
The Saints probably should've beaten the Falcons, but New Orleans went 0-for-5 in the red zone and left the game with just five field goals. Derek Carr simply is not making the plays this team needs, though he's starting to run out of playmakers with Michael Thomas already out and Chris Olave leaving the game with concussion symptoms.
And yet, the Saints are still tied for the division lead with the one definitely good unit in the division — their defense — and the easiest remaining schedule. They'll host Atlanta in a season finale bound to end up on Sunday night, and I still like New Orleans to win the division.
The Saints are +150 at FanDuel, implied 40% versus FTN's 49.1% at nearly a coin flip. There's value on New Orleans to make the playoffs (+100, DraftKings) and Atlanta to miss (+110, DraftKings), too, but the wild-card picture in the NFC muddies things and the biggest edge is on the division. It's ugly, but someone's gotta win it, and the loss against an Atlanta team the Saints outplayed might have bought us value.
TIER V — JUST GOING THROUGH THE MOTIONS
21. Los Angeles Chargers (20)
On paper, there's no reason the Chargers should be behind any of the last 10 teams, but you already know how these games go with the Chargers at this point. They're just not good enough, and they always find a way to lose.
On Sunday night, the Chargers drove to the 5-yard line on the opening drive, saw Justin Herbert take a huge late hit stepping out of bounds, and somehow ended up as the team getting the 15-yard penalty, settling for a field goal. A later drive went 19 plays for 61 yards, chewing up almost 9 minutes of clock but never even got inside the 10-yard line and ended with no points after a strip sack. The Chargers fumbled three times and lost all three, because — of course — they did.
The Chargers are an American tragicomedy, and it's long past time for Brandon Staley to go.
22. Las Vegas Raiders (19)
The Raiders looked so good through three drives against the Chiefs.
Las Vegas went 75 yards on nine plays for the opening score, then went 69 yards on 14 plays before a missed field goal, followed by a long Josh Jacobs run on the third drive to go up 14-0. At that point, the Raiders had run 25 plays for 221 yards.
The rest of the game, they had 137 yards on 33 plays and were outscored, 31-3. Welp.
23. New York Jets (21)
Is there a better encapsulation of the Jets season than the sequence near the end of the first half of the Black Friday game?
New York's defense took punches early, hung around, then got a pick-6 to close the gap, only for the special teams to miss the extra point. Then the Jets intercepted Tua Tagovailoa on the penultimate play of the half to set up a Hail Mary attempt, only to give up a 99-yard pick-6 Hell Mary to Jevon Holland to close the half. Just imagine how deflating that has to be to a defense this talented, doing this much, to no avail whatsoever.
The Jets offense averaged -0.55 EPA per play on early downs, ranking 0th percentile — not a typo. In other words, every time New York ran a first- and second-down play combo, the Jets offense cost the team more than a full point. Cool.
Tim Boyle was sacked seven times with two picks, two fumbles, and a 3.3 ADOT. Turns out Zach Wilson wasn't the only problem.
The Jets are the current AFC 15-seed.
24. Cincinnati Bengals (16)
Jake Browning made his first start and wasn't great. He had two turnovers and should've had a few more that accidentally turned into a couple of his best completions on the day.
How do you debut a new starting QB and run Joe Mixon just eight times for 16 yards? Every other play call was a pass. Unforgivable.
25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (25)
Mike Evans continued his remarkable season with two more touchdowns, and he's now up to nine scores, one off the league lead, with at least one TD in all but three games.
The Bucs hung around all game without ever really being close, and they're doing the same thing in the division. Tampa Bay still has both Carolina games left, plus games against both the Saints and Falcons, so they're not out of this yet.
TIER VI — DEFINITELY EXIST AND PLAY FOOTBALL SOMETIMES
26. Chicago Bears (26)
Congratulations to Matt Eberflus on finally winning his first division game, and to Justin Fields for a ridiculously low 2.5 ADOT as the team apparently doesn't even care to find out what it has in him anymore.
I'm sure that will be a lovely parting gift to both as the Bears thank their lucky stars daily for that Panthers No. 1 pick coming next spring.
27. Tennessee Titans (28)
The Titans won a dud of a battle of rookie quarterbacks, with Will Levis edging out Bryce Young in a game where neither of them really did anything notable.
Would you rather have Levis or Young right now going forward? It's sort of a sad question, but the fact that it's a question at all is a nice win for Tennessee.
If you're into the Titans for some reason, Tennessee's over 6.5 wins is juiced to +155 at DraftKings. They're projected at 6.4 wins, basically right at the number, so why the extra juice?
28. New York Giants (30)
Tommy DeVito just keeps on winning professional football games.
DeVito was sacked six times with two fumbles in an indomitable 10-7 victory, doing just enough now to ensure the Giants will draft low enough to be stuck with Daniel Jones at least one more season.
Some day 35 years from now, a groggy Tommy DeVito will wake up, wander upstairs and reminisce about that time he led an actual two-game NFL winning streak over a nice meal of chicken parm with his parents.
29. Washington Commanders (32)
Please, NFL, I'm begging you — stop putting Washington on Thanksgiving!
I don't ask for much.
30. Arizona Cardinals (27)
The Cardinals defense has now allowed 54 trips to the red zone, a whopping 11 more than any other NFL team. An incredible 46.1% of opponent drives have either reached the red zone or already scored before getting there, nearly once every two drives compared to the league average of around one-in-three at 33.0%.
Pretty special performance, especially considering new head coach Jonathan Gannon is supposed to be a defensive guy.
TIER VII — THE RACE FOR THE NO. 1 PICK
31. New England Patriots (29)
For the 197th time this season, the Mac Jones experiment is officially over, though it's really unclear if Bailey Zappe is any better. It's 2023, and the Patriots have lost consecutive football games by scores of 10-6 and 10-7. Embarrassing.
The Patriots are one of three teams with fewer than four wins, so at 2-9, they're sitting pretty for one of those top QB picks. Will New England even win another game? The Patriots play the Chargers, Steelers, Chiefs, Broncos, Bills and Jets. For the true sickos out there, New England's under 3.5 is juiced to +140 (Caesars). Where are those two other wins coming from?
32. Carolina Panthers (31)
The Patriots made a hard push for the bottom spot, but then the Panthers fired half the coaching staff on Monday morning to steal it back.
Bryce Young now ranks 431st of 431 qualified quarterbacks since 2011 in yards per dropback, per Jacob Nierob. That's so bad it's somehow even worse than Frank Reich and Josh McCown, the two former QB coaches Young just got fired.
By the way, the Panthers are only four wins back in the NFC South and play all three division opponents the next three weeks. Carolina is +100000 to win the division at FanDuel. You're welcome.
NFL Week 13 Power Rankings
- Philadelphia Eagles (Last week ranking: 1)
- San Francisco 49ers (3)
- Baltimore Ravens (2)
- Dallas Cowboys (5)
- Miami Dolphins (6)
- Kansas City Chiefs (4)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (9)
- Detroit Lions (7)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (13)
- Houston Texans (8)
- Buffalo Bills (11)
- Denver Broncos (24)
- Cleveland Browns (10)
- Seattle Seahawks (15)
- Minnesota Vikings (12)
- Green Bay Packers (22)
- Indianapolis Colts (18)
- Los Angeles Rams (23)
- Atlanta Falcons (24)
- New Orleans Saints (17)
- Los Angeles Chargers (20)
- Las Vegas Raiders (19)
- New York Jets (21)
- Cincinnati Bengals (16)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (25)
- Chicago Bears (26)
- Tennessee Titans (28)
- New York Giants (30)
- Washington Commanders (32)
- Arizona Cardinals (27)
- New England Patriots (30)
- Carolina Panthers (29)
