Action Network's NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are out for Week 5!
These rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed concept overview. You can also check out our season primer to understand how to use it to bet on the NFL.
An NFL game must qualify for one of the following three criteria to be considered a "Luck Game."
- A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings.
- A Luck% difference of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season.
- A Luck% difference of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later.
The unlucky team in matchups that fit one of those criteria is 122-68-6 (63.8%) against the spread (ATS) in the regular season other than the last week of the season when using closing lines — the hardest line to beat.
In Week 4, the six Luck Matchups went 5-0-1 ATS giving the unlucky team in luck-based matchups a 9-7-1 (55.9%) start ATS on the season.
Luck totals must meet one of three criteria:
- A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
There were no Luck Totals in Week 3, but in Week 4 we had three Luck Overs and three Luck Unders. In all, Luck Overs went 3-0-0 to the over and Luck Unders went 2-1-0 to the under, putting all Luck Totals at 5-1-0 (83.3%) for the season.
In all, bets meeting any side or total criteria are 14-8-1 (63%).
Here's how our NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 5.
NFL Week 5 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.
