One month into the NFL season, things are starting to take shape.
The Chiefs and Vikings are definitely good. The Jaguars, not so much. Those are the only teams still with a goose egg in the wins or losses column. But there are an absolute glut of teams stuck somewhere in the middle, teams that feel impossible to get a good read on.
Are the Eagles coming or going? Is Baltimore back? What's happening with the Packers? Was that Saints breakout real? And did we really spend all summer hyping up the Jets and Cowboys for this?
Those are just six of the 13 NFL teams sitting at 2-2 after four games, and though 2-2 is not a death knell, only seven such teams have gone on to win the Super Bowl — though four were this century, including the 2007 Giants and three Patriots squads (2003, 2014, 2018), per Aaron Schatz.
So what do we make of all these 2-2 teams? Let's do a 2-2 Teams Power Rankings — from worst to first — and take a look at whose futures are worth investing in and which teams are ripe for fading.
Tier 5 — Don't Kid Yourself, It's Already Over
13. Raiders
Wins: Ravens, Browns
Losses: Chargers, Panthers
That Raiders win over Baltimore will look weirder and weirder as the season goes on.
Las Vegas isn't particularly good at anything. The defense had been solid, until it got lit up by Andy Dalton's Carolina to the tune of 36 points, and the offense, though four games, has been historically awful running the football. That's not a great sign for a team that wants to play smash-mouth football under Antonio Pierce.
It increasingly looks like Pierce isn't up for this, and it's telling that the season-long over/under still sits at 6.5, even after a win thanks largely to a missed extra point. This team probably deserves to be 0-4. It's not the time to fade Las Vegas futures yet with the Broncos, Steelers and Rams next, but the schedule tightens up after that and then it will be curtains.
VERDICT: Look to play Raiders unders and wait to fade a few weeks to fade their futures.
12. Bears
Wins: Titans, Rams
Losses: Texans, Colts
The Bears probably deserve to be 1-3 and could easily be 0-4. They beat the Titans without an offensive touchdown and survived the Rams thanks to a handful of key mistakes and letdowns by Matthew Stafford. Chicago did probably outplay Indianapolis in a loss, but the reality is that this has been a pretty soft schedule and the Bears have disappointed anyway.
Well, let's be more specific: The Bears offense has disappointed.
Shane Waldron was supposed to right the ship, but he can't get things schemed up right for this unit. The blocking has disappointed, the run game has been hit or miss and rookie Caleb Williams continues to struggle with his decision-making and accuracy.
Chicago has been one of the worst offenses in the NFL, an abject failure for a team that probably ranks top five in weapons on that side of the ball. And that's a real disappointment too, considering how good both the defense and special teams are.
The defense is legitimately good, enough to keep this team in games, and that's why this team may still have a chance. Chicago has games against the Panthers and Jaguars up next before a bye week. The back half of the schedule is pretty brutal, but if the offense can find its way by then, you never know.
It's on the coaching staff and Williams from here. But for now, they haven't been good enough.
VERDICT: I won't stop you from playing under 8 wins (-125, Caesars), but you can probably get a better price after the Carolina and Jacksonville games.
Tier 4 — The Litmus Tests
11. Chargers
Wins: Raiders, Panthers
Losses: Steelers, Chiefs
The teams in this tier are litmus tests for their opponents. If you're good, you should beat them. If you lose, maybe you're not as good as you thought you were.
The Chargers got easy wins against two bad teams, then lost two games that barely qualified as football against teams that are a combined 7-1. Have we really learned much about this team?
Los Angeles came into the season setup well at quarterback, offensive line and coaching, but with little surrounding talent. Now the quarterback and offensive line are compromised with injury. Justin Herbert started the season hurt and has added to his ailments, and both star tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt missed Week 4. No team more badly needed this upcoming early bye week than the Chargers.
It's tough to tell much about the new coaching staff, but new DC Jesse Minter looks legit. A defense lacking talent has more than held its own, though admittedly not against the most dangerous offenses in the world. And therein lies the problem. The offense has been stuck in mud, so unless you think this is suddenly a top-five defense, there's not much to see here.
A solid defense, smart coaching and a turgid pace give you a shot at winning most weeks, or at least a chance to keep it close on paper — think the last few years of Bill Belichick Patriots. Games against the Cardinals, Browns, Titans, Saints, Broncos and Raiders all feel winnable. The problem is they're also all losable with an offense this lackluster.
There's not enough talent here, and the most talented pieces are already hurt. This is going in the wrong direction.
VERDICT: Books are still too confident in the Chargers, who have proven nothing with wins over the Raiders and Panthers. There's value on the under at 8.5 (+115, DraftKings) and on the Chargers to miss the playoffs at -130 (BetMGM), implying a 57% chance of missing when FTN has LA at 75% to miss in the crowded AFC.
10. Falcons
Wins: Eagles, Saints
Losses: Steelers, Chiefs
The Falcons have the same two losses as Chargers, but were much more competitive against Kansas City, and Atlanta's two wins are more impressive — at least in theory. The Falcons were pretty lucky to get both wins. They beat the Saints without scoring an offensive touchdown and still needed a stadium-record 58-yard field goal to get the job done, and they stole the Eagles game on the final drive of Monday Night Football.
Atlanta could — and probably should — be 0-4. But sports are binary, and the Falcons are 2-2 instead.
Kirk Cousins looked horrendous in his debut, but has settled down and looked much more comfortable, and the Falcons have largely been about what everyone expected them to be: An average football team, on both sides of the ball.
The problem is that what looked like a bad NFC South suddenly looks much tougher than expected, and so does the Falcons' presumably soft schedule. Games against the Seahawks, Commanders and Vikings look much harder than expected, along with the Bucs and Saints division games.
VERDICT: Much of the Atlanta hype this offseason was simply a litmus test for an average team in what looked like the worst division. If the division is now competitive, that may no longer be good enough.
9. Broncos
Wins: Bucs, Jets
Losses: Seahawks, Steelers
It turns out that Denver has faced one of the league's toughest schedules so far, and both Broncos wins have come as near touchdown underdogs. And they're coming almost entirely thanks to one side of the football.
Vance Joseph's defense has been legitimately fantastic. The Broncos are bringing the heat and had a pretty good looking Bucs offense totally in the blender, holding them to just seven points, then held Aaron Rodgers and the Jets to a mere nine points.
Hey, you know who this defense must be really good against? The offense it faces in practice every day, because rookie Bo Nix hasn't looked like a professional quarterback thus far. Nix has put up some positively embarrassing numbers and has entire sections of the field that he's either unwilling or unable to throw to. He was 7-of-15 at halftime Sunday for -7 yards and finished the game with 29 yards on one pass and 31 yards on his other 24 attempts.
Nix isn't good, but this conservative offense is built to protect him and limit mistakes. Denver's defense looks legit, like playoff good. With great special teams so far, that's a formula to keep games close and steal wins.
Denver could be 4-0 right now with a couple plays in each game, and the division might not be as locked up as it seems. The Chargers and Raiders are just good enough to hang with the Chiefs any given Sunday, and Kansas City is racking up offensive injuries. The Chiefs are also one month-long Patrick Mahomes injury away from the AFC West being open.
VERDICT: The Broncos look betable week-to-week as long underdogs with this defense, and there's long-shot value on Denver to win the division at +3500 (Caesars), implied under 3% when they're probably closer to 8-to-10%.
8. Colts
Wins: Bears, Steelers
Losses: Texans, Packers
Indianapolis has been one of the more unpredictable teams with four final margins all under seven points. The Colts offense has been extremely boom-or-bust, running the football well, but not keeping the ball long enough to do so, and Indy games keep coming down to the wire.
The underlying metrics on the team are good, better than you think. Indianapolis ranks 13th in DVOA, top half of the league on both offense and defense. The run defense was absolutely gashed over the first two weeks in losses, but shored up nicely in the past two weeks, even with a banged-up defensive line.
The Colts have been one of the luckier teams so far, recovering eight of the nine fumbles in their games, though the bad luck is catching up by way of injuries. Anthony Richardson left Sunday with a hip pointer, but saw Joe Flacco stand in nicely in his stead, and Jonathan Taylor has a mild ankle sprain.
Running backs don't matter, but they do on this team. Taylor has carried the team with 349 yards on 4.8 YPC behind what's probably been the league's best offensive line so far.
It's tough to know where to place the Colts with the Richardson and Taylor injury unknowns, but they might have come at the worst time. Indianapolis faces the Jaguars, Titans and Dolphins next, a winnable stretch that could put this team right in the division mix before a rematch against Houston. But that Texans game starts a brutal stretch against Houston, Minnesota, Buffalo, the Jets and Detroit.
VERDICT: The coaching and offensive line give this core a chance in every game, but they're too unpredictable to bet with much confidence. This may be a team to fade as favorites, but back as underdogs.
Tier 3 — It's Getting Late Early
7. Jets
Wins: Titans, Patriots
Losses: 49ers, Broncos
It's tough to be too excited about what we've seen from the Jets, and you're forgiven if you think this ranking is a touch high, but it might already be getting late in New York.
The Jets got demolished in the Monday Night Football opener by a 49ers team also on this list, and the offense couldn't find any answers against a Broncos squad also on our list. It's all fun and games when Aaron Rodgers and company light up an overmatched Patriots team on a short week, but this offense has badly lacked creativity and remained far too committed to a tepid run game. Rodgers runs hot and cold and the Jets lack weapons.
The Jet should probably be 3-1, but they're not, and they could just as easily be 1-3, even after this soft opening schedule. That early runway is gone with the Vikings and Bills next, and the schedule remains tough going ahead. New York's defense has played better since that embarrassing opener, but it's done so against Will Levis, Jacoby Brissett and Bo Nix.
Can the defense hold up against a real offense, and will the Jets ever get the offense and defense going at the same time? It's tough to believe in the coaches turning things around. The talent is there on this roster, but this looks nothing like the presumed sleeper Super Bowl contender it was supposed to be.
VERDICT: Rodgers should continue to round into form coming off his injury, but it's probably time to treat this team as what it is — a pretty mediocre squad on both sides of the ball — until proven otherwise.
6. Cowboys
Wins: Browns, Giants
Losses: Saints, Ravens
We've learned very little about Dallas that we didn't know already. The Cowboys have dominated two bad teams and looked lifeless against a pair of real opponents. Dallas got cremated by the Saints in Week 2, a loss that looks even worse after New Orleans got shut down in each of the past two weeks, and the Cowboys were down 28-6 to the Ravens before a fake late comeback.
Outside of kicker Brandon Aubrey, it's hard to name something this team is doing really well.
Dak Prescott ranks outside the top 20 quarterbacks in EPA + CPOE, a big drop from last season, and CeeDee Lamb is the only real weapon worth fearing on an offense that can't run the ball. The talented defense has been gashed by good offenses and now sees injuries to Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, on top of Daron Bland, and DC Mike Zimmer hasn't found any answers yet.
If you believe in Dallas and this coaching staff, FTN's projections suggest value on Dallas to win the division at +240, but I'm not burying Philadelphia just yet and Washington's offense suddenly looks pretty good too.
With Dallas, this thing can always go sideways in a hurry, especially with the specter of Bill Belichick hanging over this franchise anytime the coaches do something dumb. Jerry Jones doesn't have much patience left, and the stars simply haven't been good enough.
VERDICT: There's too much talent to write Dallas off completely, but I can't invest in this team right now. The Cowboys probably already won two of their easiest games and the upcoming schedule is pretty tough until Thanksgiving. I need to see a confident Cowboys win against a quality opponent before believing.
Tier 2 — We've Seen Glimpses of Greatness
5. Saints
Wins: Panthers, Cowboys
Losses: Eagles, Falcons
It feels like everyone has given up and moved on from the Saints a little too quickly.
Remember when New Orleans scored 91 points the first two games and OC Klint Kubiak was all the rage? That wasn't all that long ago, and it's not the Saints' fault that they've racked up a barrage of injuries since.
An offensive line that was far outperforming its talent has since lost star center Erik McCoy and a starting guard. Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave are playing hurt, and now Taysom Hill joins that list. The defense is racking up injuries to Demario Davis, Tyrann Mathieu, Willie Gay and Alontae Taylor.
And despite all that, the Saints could very well be 4-0. They got totally outplayed by the Eagles, but still led late, and were far better than the Falcons, but took an unlucky loss and now a Monday night road trip to undefeated Kansas City Chiefs awaits.
That makes it tough to invest in the Saints right now, but I've got my eye on New Orleans futures anyway. If this team can get healthy again, there are a ton of winnable games left against the Broncos, Chargers, Panthers, Browns, Rams, Giants and Raiders, plus the division of course.
The Saints are the only team in the league that ranks in the top quarter of the NFL by DVOA on offense, defense and special teams, and they're tied for best in the league in point differential. Dennis Allen isn't my choice of head coach, but he can really coach up a defense, and that unit has been outstanding. If Kubiak's offense can get back on track when healthy, the Saints could still win 10 games and be the class of a winnable NFC South.
Ready for a wild one?
Derek Carr has cooled down after a torrid start, but still ranks fourth in EPA + CPOE, typically a good indicator for MVP. He is badly mispriced at +7500 (FanDuel) in what's mostly a one-man race right now, and if Carr goes to Kansas City and outplays Mahomes, these Saints could look dangerous again in a hurry.
VERDICT: I'll play Carr for MVP at +7500 in case New Orleans steals a winnable game Monday night, and I'm looking into Saints futures. I'm still not a believer in the rest of the division, so +225 (ESPN Bet) looks pretty tasty for a team I'd make around a coin flip in the NFC South. If you don't think the Saints can hang in Kansas City, wait a week and get an even better price.
4. Packers
Wins: Colts, Titans
Losses: Eagles, Vikings
So what exactly do you take away from Green Bay's game this weekend?
On the one hand, the Packers went down 28-0. Jordan Love looked rusty in his return and clearly isn't fully healthy, and Green Bay turned it over six times (including downs). On the other hand, the Packers outscored the unbeaten Vikings 29-3 down the stretch and were probably five more minutes away from pulling off the upset as Love started picking apart this secondary to the tune of four touchdowns.
The Packers missed two field goals, turned it over on down twice in field goal range because they couldn't trust the rookie to kick again after that, added four more turnovers, and still came out three points away from beating a 4-0 squad.
That's both good and bad, but it also hints as just how good this Packers offense can be.
I think Green Bay has a real chance to finish the year as the best offense in football. Matt LaFleur has been in his bag with this squad, conjuring two Malik Willis wins out of nothing and helping this unit find a great run game that can now pair with a prolific passing attack.
Consider that this is a top five offense right now, despite playing two of its games with a quarterback not on the roster a few weeks earlier and another one on a Brazil ice rink. Add in an improving defense under new DC Jeff Hafley and the Packers might really have a stew cooking.
Those two Willis wins saved Green Bay's season, and this team looks ready to hit its stride with the Rams, Cardinals, Texans and Jaguars up next. I still recommend a Jordan Love MVP bet at +6000 (DraftKings) if you didn't play it last week, and +1200 to win the NFC looks playable too, considering this team might have the best quarterback in the conference when the playoffs start.
VERDICT: Green Bay showed what it was in the second half Sunday. The Packers are for real and should be taken seriously, and a light upcoming schedule means now is time to invest, both game-to-game and by futures.
3. Eagles
Wins: Packers, Saints
Losses: Falcons, Bucs
If I were just ranking teams from what we've seen on the field, the Eagles would be last in this tier, but it's pretty tough to power rank a team below two opponents its beaten one month into the season, even if both of those wins came down to the final minutes.
Every Philadelphia game had come down to the final few plays before the Eagles got destroyed by the Bucs as Todd Bowles dominated Jalen Hurts for the umpteenth straight time. Hurts has really struggled this season. He's making poor decisions and continues to turn the ball over, and an Eagles offense loaded with talent has struggled to find consistent points.
Of course, that makes sense for a super top-heavy unit with most of its stars hurt. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith will be back soon enough, and tackle Lane Johnson should return after the bye. Philadelphia needed this week off badly, and this offense remains as talented as any when healthy, especially with Saquon Barkley looking electric and breaking a huge run or two every week.
Even with Hurts struggling, there's too much talent on this offense for it not to be great once it gets healthy — but the defense is another story. Vic Fangio's unit got picked apart by the Bucs, and it got picked apart by Kirk Cousins late in the loss to the Falcons. The defense has been inconsistent at best and mostly just bad.
Still, for a team with two new coordinators and big injuries, with a schedule that turned out to be about as tough as anyone's starting out, 2-2 is not a bad outcome for Philadelphia.
Now the bye week comes at the perfect time, with a very winnable stretch against the Browns, Giants, Bengals and Jaguars waiting on the other side. This should be a great chance for Nick Sirianni to stop screwing around and get this team on track — but something feels a bit off with this coaching staff too.
The Eagles are one of the toughest teams to figure out. You could tell me this team won the NFC or that Philly won eight games and missed the playoffs entirely, and both outcomes would be believable.
FTN projects Philadelphia at only 8.5 wins, a full two wins short of the current 10.5 win total. That could put the under in play and suggest serious value on Philadelphia to miss the playoffs at +210 (FanDuel).
VERDICT: Maybe Hurts and this coaching staff are rotten, but I can't quite quit this team. I'm not ready to buy futures either, but I'll keep playing one week at a time out of the bye and see if the Eagles can get healthy.
Tier 1 — As Good As Any Team in the NFL
2. 49ers
Wins: Jets, Patriots
Losses: Vikings, Rams
It's easy to forget about the 49ers after what's felt like a Super Bowl hangover September, but San Francisco looked as good as ever cruising past the Patriots on Sunday, and don't forget about the dominant opener against the Jets.
Both 49ers losses have been self-inflicted wounds. San Francisco has made too many mistakes — and Brock Purdy is getting punished for his mistakes this season — and injuries have narrowed the margin of error. There's still no sign of Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel remains missing and DT Javon Hargrave is out for the season.
Given all that, it's actually pretty impressive the 49ers rank top seven by DVOA on both offense and defense.
The 49ers seem fine, but those two losses still count. This team has a couple tough stretches coming up, first against the Seahawks, Chiefs and Cowboys, then later against the Seahawks, Packers and Bills. San Francisco looks about as good as any team, but you never know how the losses can add up if those injuries stick around or come back at just the wrong time.
Even at 2-2, you can make a decent case that the 49ers are the right NFC favorite. Unfortunately, they're also priced like that, leaving little reason to invest while the team is so banged up.
VERDICT: San Francisco looks really good, but books think so too, so there's not much value here.
1. Ravens
Wins: Cowboys, Bills
Losses: Chiefs, Raiders
A Bills-Cowboys Super Bowl prediction would've made plenty of sense before the season, which makes it all the more impressive what the Ravens did to those teams in the past 10 days. First, a dominant 28-6 lead on the road in Dallas before a fake comeback made the final score closer than it was late, then a 35-10 shellacking of the Bills that was probably best win of the season thus far.
It felt like the Ravens struggled to find their offensive rhythm over the first couple games, but have truly unleashed Derrick Henry over the past two weeks. Henry and Lamar Jackson might be the most thunder-and-lightning attack this league has ever seen, and that downhill rushing attack has significantly helped an offensive line that struggled a lot in both losses to start the year.
The Ravens have the best offense in football so far, and even better, Baltimore's defense finally looked like last season's dominant unit in shutting down what had been the No. 1 DVOA offense, Buffalo. The Ravens play so aggressively that it can feel like there's an extra man on the field at times. That style of defense, combined with Henry and Jackson's playaction, should make Baltimore a devastating front runner, as we saw Sunday night.
Those first two losses feel long ago. FTN prices the Ravens at 65% to win the division, leaving value on -125 at FanDuel now that the Bengals and Browns look out of it, and with the overrated Steelers now just one game ahead.
By DVOA, the Ravens are the second-best 2-2 team in NFL history. The only better 2-2 team was the 2001 Eagles, who rebounded from 2-2 all the way to the NFC Conference Championship Game.
Can the Ravens take it one game further?
