As we approach the home stretch of the NFL season, oddsmakers have a strong feel for each team. At least that is what the Week 13 lines imply.
Nine of the 16 games have a spread of six or more points, including three teams favored by more than a touchdown on the road.
In nearly every game, a majority of spread bettors are laying the points with the chalk, which means a few of these teams are likely overvalued.
By comparing the projected point spread created using The Action Network’s NFL Power Rankings to the consensus number, we can determine which teams the public is overrating and underrating in Week 13.
Note: As of Tuesday afternoon, Giants-Bears is currently off the board with Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder) questionable to play.
Overrated Week 13 Teams
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions
- NFL Power Rating spread: -7.7
- Current Spread: -10
- Value on: Lions
- Time: Dec. 2, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
The 10-1 Rams are coming off a bye week. Since 2003, great teams (won at least 90% of their games) have gone 24-11 against the spread (ATS) with at least 13 days between games per Bet Labs.
However, since the 2013-14 season, these same teams are only 5-6 ATS.
It is difficult to cover a large spread in the NFL. Even a talented and well-rested team like the Rams could struggle in this spot.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- NFL Power Rating spread: -1.7
- Current Spread: -3.5
- Value on: Bucs
- Time: Dec. 2, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Carolina lost to Seattle in Week 12 and probably shouldn’t be a 3.5-point favorite on the road in Tampa. At least that is what our power ratings suggest.
Normally, I would give out a trend that supports the Panthers being overrated, but in this situation they might not be.
Late in the regular season (November-January), teams favored on the road following a loss have gone 133-108-8 (55%) ATS since 2003. In division games, these teams have been even more profitable, going 55-36-3 (60%) ATS.
Underrated Week 13 Teams
Atlanta Falcons vs. Baltimore Ravens
- NFL Power Rating spread: -1.5
- Current Spread: +1
- Value on: Falcons
- Time: Dec. 2, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
It’s not often that our power ratings have a team favored when the betting market lists it as an underdog. The primary reason for the discrepancy is public perception driven by recent performance.
The Ravens are 2-0 since Lamar Jackson took over at quarterback — the dual-threat QB is averaging 95 rushing yards in his two starts. Atlanta’s season is all but over having lost three consecutive games.
This would be the 15th time in the regular season that Matt Ryan has been listed as a home underdog and the first since Week 4 of the 2016 season (+2.5 vs. Panthers).
In the previous 14 games, the Falcons went 9-5 straight up (SU) and 11-3 ATS.
Dallas Cowboys vs. New Orleans Saints
- NFL Power Rating spread: +5.9
- Current Spread: +7.5
- Value on: Cowboys
- Time: Nov. 29, 8:20 p.m. ET (FOX/NFL)
The Saints will try to win their 11 straight when they visit the Cowboys on Thursday Night Football. An improved defense and injuries to Dallas’ offensive line give New Orleans an edge.
While a win seems likely, covering the spread could be a different story. Under Jason Garrett, the Cowboys are 33-22-1 ATS as underdogs, including 20-9 ATS when getting more than a field goal.
