The Week 10 NFL slate is dominated by large favorites. Eight games feature a team that opened as a favorite of 6.5 or more points and there are four double-digit favorites on Sunday.
Casual bettors love wagering on the chalk, which means there is a good chance at least one of these big favorites is overrated.
By comparing the projected point spread created using The Action Network’s NFL Power Rankings to the consensus number, we can determine which teams the public is overrating and underrating in Week 10.
Overrated Week 10 Teams
San Francisco 49ers vs. New York Giants
- NFL Power Rating spread: -0.4
- Current Spread: -3
- Value on: Giants
- Time: Nov. 12, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
In his first career start, Nick Mullens threw for 262 yards and three touchdowns as the 49ers rolled past the Raiders, 34-3.
Mullens is a great story but is likely to regress in his second start. This spread is out of line with our power ratings. The 2.6-point difference between projected and actual spread is the largest in Week 10.
And then there is this trend to consider if you are thinking about wagering on the 49ers: San Francisco has been favored in 21 previous games since the 2014-15 season and has gone 6-15 against the spread (ATS).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Washington Redskins
- NFL Power Rating spread: -1
- Current Spread: -3
- Value on: Redskins
- Time: Nov. 11, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Matt Ryan torched the Redskins defense in Week 9, throwing for 350 yards and four touchdowns. Even Julio Jones managed to find the end zone for the first time in 12 games.
Bettors might be expecting Ryan Fitzpatrick to have similar success on Sunday, but Ryan was only the third quarterback the Washington defense had allowed to throw for more than 300 yards. .
The Redskins defense has also been opportunistic forcing 14 takeaways (tied 10th). Fitzpatrick has thrown at least one interception in four of his past five games.
Underrated Week 10 Teams
Cleveland Browns vs. Atlanta Falcons
- NFL Power Rating spread: +3.5
- Current Spread: +5
- Value on: Browns
- Time: Nov. 11, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Recency bias is the cause for the line discrepancy in this game. The Falcons won by double-digits and covered in Week 9 while the Browns lost by double-digits and were not able to cash tickets for bettors.
More than 80% of spread tickets (see live odds) are being wagered on the Falcons. Since 2003, teams getting 20% or less of spread bets, like the Browns, have gone 114-92-9 (55%) ATS per Bet Labs.
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
- NFL Power Rating spread: -8.3
- Current Spread: -7
- Value on: Jets
- Time: Nov. 11, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The 3-6 Jets are touchdown favorites? Believe it. The last time Gang Green was listed as a favorite of more than a touchdown was Week 14 in 2015 (-8 vs. Titans).
Teams that have won less than 40% of their games, like the Jets, and are favored by seven or more points have gone 54-63-2 (46%) ATS since 2003.
History is not on New York’s side but the power rankings actually think the Jets should be larger favorites. If Nathan “Pick-6” Peterman starts, the line might not be big enough.
