We have a couple double-digit spreads in primetime, another London game and a Patrick Mahomes-less Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. But what are the best betting edges.
Like every week, I'll use my projected spreads and over/unders to identify the best bets for Week 8, but first note that I've omitted Seahawks-Falcons and Cardinals-Saints for now. Both matchups are off the board (and thus unavailable to bet) due to uncertainty regarding respective quarterback situations, but I'll add them in once we get more clarity, so be sure to check back later in the week.
Also note the two features I've added recently: My projected final scores and my new Pass/Run Funnel Model ratings. The PRFM in-sample records should be treated like trends — they're not implying a bet would win at that same rate outside of the sample (i.e. this upcoming week); it's intended to be about its predictive value.
Now let's run through every matchup and identify my favorite picks.
Odds as of Wednesday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Redskins at Vikings
Current odds: Vikings -16.5; 42
My Projections: Vikings -15.5; 41.5
Thursday Night Football
Case Keenum and Kirk Cousins face off against their former teams in this primetime matchup. Besides that intriguing storyline, this matchup isn't ideal for handicapping purposes.
A line as high as -16.5 comes down to how much effort each team will put in during the fourth quarter to either backdoor cover or prevent that, so I typically avoid spreads this big. However, with 61% of the action coming in on the Vikings as of writing (see live public betting data here), it’s likely that books need the Redskins to cover. So if your strategy is to be on the same side as the house, this would be a spot to back the dog.
The total has crept up from 41 to 42 with around 60% of the action on the over. I would say the line is about right, so it offers no value at the moment. It could also be affected by how each team handles garbage time in the fourth quarter, which can lead to the hair-pulling frustration I try to avoid.
Remember, we only want to take action we find a perceived edge on, and expected blowouts like this should really only be bet for entertainment purposes or if you find an in-game angle to exploit.
My Projected Team Totals: Vikings 28.5; Redskins 13
Giants at Lions
Current odds: Lions -7; 49
My Projections: Lions -8; 48
The Lions are popping in my Pass/Run Funnel Model with a rating of 1.08, which makes sense as their offensive strength is their passing attack (ranked fourth in Football Outsiders' DVOA) and they're going up against a Giants defense with pass defense as its main weakness (27th in DVOA).
The Lions losing their workhorse running back Kerryon Johnson to IR could affect them in matchups in which they need to be more balanced, but for Week 8, it could force them to just lean on their passing attack even more.
The Giants have seen 72% of the money, so it’s worth seeing if this number can get off the key number of 7 and down to 6.5 or better before pulling the trigger. The Lions' 1.08 PRFM rating is also showing a 70.3% in-sample win rate — any matchup that's been over a 1 in this model is 15-4 on the season.
My Projected Team Totals: Lions 28; Giants 20
Buccaneers at Titans
Current odds: Titans -2.5; 45.5
My Projections: Titans -3; 46
Ryan Tannehill looked solid as the new starting quarterback in the Titans' 23-20 win over the Chargers. The current line of -2.5 is likely to push up to my projected number of -3.
The total is where I'm seeing some slight value at 45.5. My Pass/Run Funnel Model is giving it a rating of 0.22 on the over, which has resulted in a 57.8% in-sample predicted win rate. This makes sense as both defenses are currently in the top three in rush defense DVOA, so both teams would be wise to air it out in this matchup.
The Titans are more than capable of taking advantage of this matchup with a solid receiving corps featuring Corey Davis, A.J. Brown, Adam Humphries and Delanie Walker. The offense looked less sluggish without Mariota, so I'm willing to buy in on this over before the market catches up.
Plus anytime Jameis Winston gets into a pass-happy matchup, it favors the over.
My Projected Team Totals: Titans 24.5; Buccaneers 21.5
Chargers at Bears
Current odds: Bears -4; 41
My Projections: Bears -3; 41.5
Last week I had mentioned that the loser of Chargers-Titans could be a potential value play for Week 8. That happened to be the Chargers, as they lost another close one, 23-20. Now six of their seven games have been decided by one score, going 1-5 in such spots. Their expected Pythagorean record is 3.5-3.5, which is much different than their actual record of 2-5.
On the other side of the ball, the Bears have been shaky now coming off back-to-back losses, so the market isn't offering much value at -4.
It's also worth noting that the Chargers have one of the NFL's weakest home-field advantages that I took the under on their season win totals. However, this does tend to make them valuable on the road and have now gone 8-2 over the past two seasons (aka since they've called Dignity Health Sports Park home).
My Projected Team Totals: Bears 22.25; Chargers 19.25
Jets at Jaguars
Current odds: Jaguars -6; 41
My Projections: Jaguars -7; 40
The Jalen Ramsey-less Jaguars defense will seem like a breath of fresh air for Sam Darnold after having to face the Patriots last week. It's still a bit concerning that he was quoted as "seeing ghosts" in the pocket — typically that's an observation an analyst may make on a QB during a game, so it's alarming when the player admits it. Darnold may need one more game to get his season back on track after missing a few games due to mono.
I would lean toward the Jaguars at this number as they're also popping in my Pass/Run Funnel Model. However, the Jets' passing metrics need to be taken with a grain of salt as third-stringer Luke Falk has started half their games.
I think it's best to pass on this matchup.
My Projected Team Totals: Jaguars 23.5; Jets 16.5
Eagles at Bills
Current odds: Bills -1.5; 43.5
My Projections: Bills -1.5; 42.5
The 5-1 Bills are one of the biggest surprises of 2019. Their 4-2 Pythagorean expected record makes them a full win above expectations, which is the fourth-luckiest win total so far this season.
There could be some value on the underdog here as the lookahead line before the season started was Eagles -3. We all know how vulnerable their secondary has been and that the Bills are likely to attack Philly through the air, but I don't like them as much when their game plan could involve relying on Josh Allen's arm more than normal. While he's made considerable strides in his second season, he’s still a below-average passer who relies on his legs.
The Eagles are more equipped to handle a QB like Allen, which is why I'd lean Philly here.
My Projected Team Totals: Bills 22; Eagles 20.5
Bengals vs. Rams (in London)
Current odds: Rams -13; 48
My Projections: Rams -13.5; 48.5
The Bengals burned me hard last week. They hung around with the Jaguars long enough that the +4.5 bet was +EV for most of the game. However, the flood gates opened toward the end and they ended up getting blown out.
Now I have the exact same lines as the market, so I'm staying away from this one.
With the Bengals' season swirling down the drain and very likely to go into their bye 0-8, it's quite possible this turns out to be Andy Dalton's last start as a Bengal as there's a chance Cincinnati hands the reins over to fourth-round rookie Ryan Finley to see what they have in him before heading into the loaded 2020 draft with one of the top picks.
My Projected Team Totals: Rams 31; Bengals 17.5
Raiders at Texans
Current odds: Texans -7; 51.5
My Projections: Texans -7; 50
This 5.5-point opener offered quite a bit of value, but it's since been bet up to 7, where it's parked on the key number. Therefore the value in that market has dried up. However, the total has crept up from 50 up to 51.5.
Books appear to be getting flooded with over tickets (66%) and money (93%), and I'm not exactly sure why. I get why people would be investing in a Texans over, but the Raiders could help make this game lean toward an under game flow.
Deshaun Watson typically plays best when the Texans are trailing. Given we can assume a positive game script is much more likely here, they could opt to lean on Carlos Hyde and the ground game to run the clock and help shorten the game. And on the other side of the ball, the Raiders are second-to-last in pace of play (per Football Outsiders) and remain a slower-paced team when in a close or trailing game script (sixth-slowest).
This matchup leans toward the under, but it's worth seeing if the market can bump it up to 52 or even 52.5 before biting on it. As you can read more about in this great piece by my colleague PJ Walsh, 53 and 54 are fairly harmless numbers for a total.
My Projected Team Totals: Texans 28.5; Raiders 21.5
Panthers at 49ers
Current odds: 49ers -5.5; 42
My Projections: 49ers -6; 41.5
This under is popping in my Pass/Run Funnel Model with a rating of -0.73, which gives it a downright silly 81% in-sample predictive win rate. There have been only six games this season that have earned a rating below -0.5, and the under is now 5-1. It makes sense as the 49ers' defense has been arguably the second-best in the league (behind the Patriots), and based on the fact that they become the slowest paced team in the league when winning (FO).
It may be worth waiting to see if the 64% of the money coming in on the over can push this up to 42.5 or even 43, but I highly doubt sharps will allow that. Fire up the under here.
My Projected Team Totals: 49ers 23.75; Panthers 17.75
Broncos at Colts
Current odds: Colts -5.5; 43
My Projections: Colts -6; 41.5
The Broncos entered Week 7 on a two-game win streak then took a quick 6-0 lead over the Chiefs, but it was all downhill from there. The Chiefs scored 30 unanswered points, then to add insult to injury (literally), outscored the Broncos 10-0 after Patrick Mahomes was knocked out of the game.
With the Broncos' season pretty much lost, it'll be interesting to see if/when they decide Drew Lock is healthy enough to play and if he gets his first start in the near future. (The over/under could be after their Week 10 bye.) They've already unloaded Emmanuel Sanders, sending him to the 49ers for draft picks.
I bring all of this up because while I show a bit of value on the Broncos, it's crucial to factor in what's driving teams once we get to the second half of the season: Are they making a playoff push, or are they playing for their future? Given that they're starting to eye beyond 2019, I'm going to lay off the Broncos for the time being.
My Projected Team Totals: Colts 23.75; Broncos 17.75
Browns at Patriots
Current odds: Patriots -12.5; 46
My Projections: Patriots -13.5; 46
While my power ratings line up perfectly with the market, it's important to point out that ratings should be treated as a starting point, and diving a bit deeper into how these two teams will approach the matchup could highlight some potential value. That's why I would agree with my Pass/Run Funnel Model that's leaning toward the under with a rating of -0.63.
We all know by now that the Patriots defense is a force not to be reckoned — quarterbacks have a ridiculous 1-to-18 touchdown-to-interception ratio against them, and Baker Mayfield happens to be the league leader in interceptions with 11.
The Browns could lean on Nick Chubb early and often to prevent turnovers — a game plan that might not be enough to beat the Patriots, but will certainly go a long way to help the under.
My Projected Team Totals: Patriots 29.75; Browns 16.25
Packers at Chiefs
Current odds: Packers -4; 47.5
My Projections: Packers -3; 47.5
Sunday Night Football
This is by far the most interesting game to handicap this week, and arguably of the season.
This spread is very much a reflection of how many points Patrick Mahomes is worth. As soon as he suffered the injury last Thursday night, I was weighing how big of an impact it would have on the Chiefs in fantasy and betting. The lookahead line for this game was right around Chiefs -3.5 before the injury, and I thought it would impact the spread by seven to nine points, so I quickly posted a Week 8 line on twitter of Packers -3.5.
If Patrick Mahomes is out next week who would you take in their Week 8 matchup?
GB at KC
— Sean Koerner (@The_Oddsmaker) October 18, 2019
I was surprised when a significant majority of people ended up taking Green Bay, with some people saying it was the worst line they've ever seen — it seemed like people assumed the Packers would be much closer to -7.
The reason I say Mahomes is likely worth seven to nine points depends on what numbers are being crossed based on the line move. A move from -3.5 to +3.5 crosses the most critical number in NFL spread betting (3) not once, but twice. That's why I had this closer to a 7-point line move. If the spread was Chiefs -1.5, it's likely the line could have ended up in the Packers -7 range as it would've passed 3 only once, then parked on the next key number (7) for a full 8.5-point line move.
Having said all that, it's clear to me that the public is all over the Packers here — especially after Aaron Rodgers exploded for 429 passing yards and six total touchdowns this past Sunday.
The sharps are more than likely going to back the Matt Moore-led Chiefs and bank on Andy Reid to build the offense around Moore in the 10-day window. We have to remember that they do have playmakers like Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce who can make a below-average QB like Moore look normal. We saw a glimpse of this when Moore connected with Hill for a 57-yard score in the third quarter of Thursday's win.
Chiefs +4 is one of the sneakiest bets of the week.
My Projected Team Totals: Packers 25.25; Chiefs 22.25
Dolphins at Steelers
Current odds: Steelers -14; 43
My Projections: Steelers -15; 41.5
Monday Night Football
I stand firm in my approach of simply passing on any Dolphins spread until further notice.
The post-Ben Roethlisberger Steelers have altered their offense to be much more conservative with a run-heavy approach. This will suit them well in a matchup in which they're huge favorites.
I'd lean toward the under as the market has bumped this total up to 43 and counting. It's likely not in the Steelers' game plan to force the issue here. They're the sixth-slowest paced team (per Football Outsiders) while the Dolphins are the slowest paced team when losing by seven or more points (they have a fairly large sample size in this game state), so I think everything points to a scoring environment that favors the under.
My Projected Team Totals: Steelers 28.25; Dolphins 13.25
