Every week during the 2024 season, I share my three favorite NFL picks against the spread (ATS) on my betting card for every Sunday slate.
For reference, here are my season-long records.
- 2023: 37-17
- 2024: 16-22-1
- Overall: 53-39-1
If you're looking to bet on some ugly underdogs this week, you've come to the right place. Here are my expert NFL predictions and Week 16 picks against the spread.
NFL Picks: Week 17
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Colts vs. Giants
Giants +8 (-115)
The Colts need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Teams in this scenario over the final two weeks of the regular season against opponents eliminated from playoff contention have hit at around 40% clip ATS since 1990. Why would that be the case? Well, at times, there is certainly a premium you have to pay to back the "motivated" team against a "dead" team. That's what I believe is at play in this particular spot, as I project the spread at under a touchdown despite having the Giants with an extremely low rating as the worst team in the league.
In addition to the premium you might have to pay, the teams that need to win also might play a little tight or too conservative with so much on the line. In contrast, the team with nothing to play for can come out much looser, potentially gaining a second wind in the spoiler role in a quasi-Super Bowl for a team not in the playoff hunt late in the season. Also, remember there's a chance the Colts will have already been eliminated from playoff contention by the time this game kicks off if both the Broncos and Chargers win on Saturday.
As I mentioned, the Giants are a bad football team. I like running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. and wide receiver Malik Nabers (who should suit up) can make plays on the outside, but there's not much else to write home about. The defense can generate pressure off the edge, but has holes on the back end and is banged up at linebacker. They are also playing without their best player, defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence.
On the other side of the ball, Drew Lock will once again start at quarterback behind a very poor offensive line that will be without its starting center and has already lost star left tackle Andrew Thomas. Lock has not been good by any measure. Out of 44 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks, Lock ranks last in EPA+CPOE. It's ugly, but he will at least face a very basic Gus Bradley defense that doesn't like to blitz.
Plus, do you know who sits in the same neighborhood as Lock in that statistic? Anthony Richardson, who I'm assuming will still start on Sunday despite missing practices at the end of the week (star guard Quenton Nelson is a bit more questionable for what it's worth). Richardson ranks 42nd in that same metric and is one of only four quarterbacks with a negative EPA+CPOE:
- 41. Cooper Rush -0.011
- 42. Anthony Richardson -0.025
- 43. Spencer Rattler -0.033
- 44. Drew Lock -0.036
That's not the best company for the second-year signal caller out of Florida to find himself in. Does he deserve to lay over a touchdown in this spot? I don't think so.
Keep in mind this is also an indoor team playing outdoors in December. Indianapolis also hasn't defeated a single team by more than one possession all season long and all of its victories have come against non-playoff teams outside of Pittsburgh.
Maybe Jonathan Taylor just goes completely off, but the Giants' defense, while still very bad, at least didn't get completely embarrassed over the past three weeks without Lawrence against a trio of very good backs. For what it's worth, I'd prefer if the inaccurate Richardson got the start, but I'd still be okay with this wager if the immobile Joe Flacco does indeed start, which may lead to better results through the air but hurt the overall rushing efficiency where the Giants are much more vulnerable at the moment.
Trending: Teams needing to win over the final two weeks against teams eliminated from the playoffs have gone 72-104 ATS (40.9%) since 1990.
I'd bet the Giants down to +7.5.
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Cowboys vs. Eagles
Cowboys +7.5 (-105)
The Cowboys are still playing very hard for head coach Mike McCarthy. You have to give them a lot of credit for their performances over the past two weeks. The blowout win in Carolina against an upward-trending Panthers team (that has covered six of seven) was impressive when you consider the horrible situational spot Dallas found itself in. The Cowboys then backed it up by upsetting the red-hot Bucs last weekend.
What has changed? Well, the offense for starters. They've adjusted their scheme a bit to better suit Cooper Rush and have found a viable rushing attack with Rico Dowdle, who has given the Cowboys an above-average rushing offense over their past five games where they have quietly gone 4-1 overall. The defense has also gotten healthier, which has led to better results on that side of the ball. Since Week 12, the Cowboys rank 7th in EPA per Play allowed. Over the first 11 weeks, they ranked 30th.
Now, I will say I liked this bet much more before Dallas shut down Ceedee Lamb. That stings, as he's as important to that offense as any wide receiver in the league with the rest of the room struggling to gain separation. Will Rush be able to survive on the road without his primary weapon he loves to target incessantly? I'm not entirely sure, especially when you consider how poorly he performed in the first meeting against Philadelphia when he threw for a paltry 45 yards on 23 attempts. Plus, I'm sure the Eagles' defense will come out a bit salty after giving up a crooked number in Washington last Sunday.
With that said, I still think the Cowboys are the side above a touchdown in a game with a super low total in part due to potentially impactful wind. Most importantly, it appears Jalen Hurts will not play this week due to a concussion. That will leave the QB1 duties to Kenny Pickett, who I've always been fond of fading. Look no further than last week to see how different this offense operates with Pickett at the helm instead of Hurts. Against a vulnerable Washington defense, Pickett only threw for 143 yards on 24 attempts and ultimately helped allow the Commanders to mount a monumental comeback despite turning the ball over five times, which is almost unheard of. Plus, Pickett might not even be at 100% as he's dealing with a rib injury.
With a healthy Hurts, I'd project this spread above 10, but I have the drop-off from Hurts to Pickett worth about 4.5 points, which means I'm closer to six with the current quarterback situation. The loss of Lamb does suck some value out of this bet, but I think Dallas can keep this within one possession in what profiles as an ugly low-scoring divisional affair.
The Cowboys are still fighting and I'm sure they'll show up here with some extra motivation after getting embarrassed by their divisional rival on their home field earlier this season by a score of 34-6. Dallas has also performed well on the road this season (5-2 overall) with multiple outright wins over potential playoff teams in Washington and Pittsburgh. Their special teams are also very good, highlighted by the absolute weapon Brandon Aubrey, who may make a major difference in a game where points could come at a premium.
Trending: Nick Sirianni is just 2-10-1 ATS (16.7%) as a favorite of more than a touchdown, failing to cover by 4.4 points per game on average.
I would bet the Cowboys as long as you're getting 7.5 points. Getting the extra half point is crucial there.
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49ers +3.5 (-110)
I like the 49ers at anything over a field goal in a game I project right around two points even after adjusting for the potentially disastrous situation brewing along San Francisco's offensive line. It does look like Isaac Guerendo has a shot to play, and the Niners should get Nick Bosa back at full strength, which would make a massive difference along the defensive line. George Kittle should also have an extremely favorable matchup throughout the game.
Ultimately, I don't think Detroit's defensive injuries are being properly accounted for in the market at the moment, so I like anything over a field goal. Be sure to check out the Action App on Monday for my full breakdown of the game.
Trending: Fading Dan Campbell is not for the faint of heart. During his tenure in Detroit, he's gone a ridiculous 45-20-1 ATS (69.2%).
I would bet the 49ers as long as I'm getting 3.5 points. I need the hook if I'm going to fade the Lions.
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