Every week during the 2024 season, I share my three favorite NFL picks against the spread (ATS) on my betting card for every Sunday slate.
For reference, here are my season-long records.
- 2023: 37-17
- 2024: 16-22-1
- Overall: 53-39-1
If you're looking to bet on some ugly underdogs this week, you've come to the right place. Here are my expert NFL predictions and Week 16 picks against the spread.
NFL Picks: Week 16
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Lions vs. Bears
I played the Bears in the first matchup in Detroit, where they covered a closing line of +9. Now, they are catching +7 at home against a Lions defense ravaged by injuries, since that Thanksgiving day matchup with Chicago. If you go back to Detroit's opening week depth chart, 12 of the 22 defenders on their two deep are now out with an injury, highlighted by the following four key cogs at each level of their stop unit:
- DE Aidan Hutchinson
- DT Alim McNeil
- LB Alex Anzalone
- CB Carlton Davis
Throw in all the depth pieces that are now out and this Lions defense is extremely vulnerable. As a result, I have to bite at this number I show value in and buy low on the Bears, who have looked lost the past two weeks.
Maybe head coach Thomas Brown is in over his head and maybe the defense misses Matt Eberflus. But the Bears, who have lost eight straight, have at least been super competitive at home all season, going 5-1 ATS with a pair of divisional losses against the Packers and Vikings by a combined four points. If they can't show up for this game against the division-leading Lions, move the team to St. Louis.
Will Detroit be able to move the ball? Absolutely. They should get what they want on the ground against a Chicago defense that has been trending poorly against the run since losing Andrew Billings in the interior. However, quarterback Jared Goff has struggled vs. this Bears defense over the past two seasons, throwing for an average of 206 yards with an equal number of touchdowns and interceptions (5). Goff — who has been a cheat code against man coverage this season — has performed at a much more pedestrian level against zone, which he'll see a majority of on Sunday against a Chicago defense. They have played man on less than 20% of snaps; only the Colts, Bucs, and Bills can say the same.
Most importantly, Goff will face his nemesis: playing outdoors in weather conditions where he is much less effective. He's 1-5 ATS outdoors when the temperature is below 35 degrees. The forecast currently calls for near-freezing temperatures with the potential for impactful winds, which is not ideal for Goff.
I'm obviously banking on cornerback Jaylon Johnson suiting up, but he did miss Friday's practice with an illness. If he doesn't go, that could be problematic, but the Lions could also be down a starting offensive lineman and another key piece in the secondary.
Even if the Lions score a bit more than I'm expecting, I believe Chicago (which could get healthier along the offensive line) can keep up against this bruised and battered Detroit defense.
Trending: Jared Goff is a sparkling 41-19-1 ATS (68.3%) indoors, but just 34-33-3 ATS (50.7%) outdoors, including 7-12-1 (36.8%) in December.
+6.5 or better but prefer 7 up to -120
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Rams vs. Jets
I think this line is too high, as I project it closer to 1.5. It's also not the best situational spot for the Rams. While they do benefit from extra rest after playing on Thursday night, the Rams are coming off two wins as underdogs with two massive divisional games on deck that will decide who wins the NFC West. I wouldn't be surprised if they came out a bit flat — just as they did last season in a very similar spot when they traveled to New York after a big Thursday night victory with a massive game against the 49ers on deck. While the Rams did find a way to win, they only beat a Tyrod Taylor-led Giants squad by a single point.
Ultimately, I think we are getting value with the Jets due to the record discrepancy between these two teams and recent impressive performances by this Rams team that I'm looking to sell high on.
However, this season Los Angeles has been a completely different team away from home. Just take a look at their results:
- Lost at Detroit (indoors)
- Lost at Arizona (indoors)
- Lost at Chicago (18)
- Won at Seattle in OT (should've lost)
- Won at New England by 6
- Won at New Orleans by 7 (indoors)
- Won at San Francisco by 6
Their offense isn't the same outdoors, especially in December against a New York defense that can still generate pressure and possesses the corners on the outside that can at least match up with Cooper Kupp and Puca Nacua. I also expect the Jets to increase their man coverage rates this week since they have the personnel to do so against Stafford, who isn't as effective against those coverage looks.
While I don't expect the Jets to completely shut down the Rams' offense, I think they can do enough to keep them in check. Plus, I think the offense can keep up against a meager Los Angeles defense that ranks 27th in EPA per Play. The secondary is vulnerable and the pass rush has been less effective in recent weeks, as I think some of their younger pieces have hit a bit of a wall late in the season.
Aaron Rodgers should take full advantage with his weapons on the outside. I'm almost certain he was hampered by an injury earlier this season but has seemingly recovered to full health over the past month. Over his past four games, he has thrown eight touchdowns to just one interception with a 68% completion rate. Over that stretch, the Jets have averaged close to 27 points per game. Quietly, this offense has figured it out and Rodgers will get to face a zone-heavy defense, which he has fared much better against in 2024.
I just don't see as big of a difference between these teams as the market is implying. The Jets have just lost most of their close games (7 one-possession losses), while the Rams have won theirs (7 one-possession wins). Hopefully, the home dogs finally start barking. And maybe a fourth down will finally go the Jets' way. On the season, they have converted only 7 of 16 (43.75%), while their opponents have been successful on 13 of 17 (76.5%).
Trending: Aaron Rodgers is 7-2 ATS (77.8%) as a home underdog, covering by over nine points per game.
Bet to +3
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Jaguars vs. Raiders
This one is as ugly as it gets in a game with more meaning for draft positioning than anything else. However, I think this is a good spot to back the Raiders at home as they look to end a 10-game losing. Despite all of the futility, Las Vegas has been fighting weekly despite a brutal stretch of opponents during its extended slide. The Raiders have essentially played 10 teams in playoff contention during their losing streak and some of the best quarterbacks in the league:
- at Broncos
- vs. Steelers
- at Rams
- vs. Chiefs
- at Bengals
- at Dolphins
- vs. Broncos
- at Chiefs
- at Bucs
- vs. Falcons
It doesn't get much more difficult than that stretch, which also included a start by Desmond Ridder in their most recent defeat. Las Vegas has also dealt with plenty of other injuries at running back, along the offensive line, and all across the defense — even having to play multiple games without multiple starting defensive backs. Yet, they've remained competitive for the most part.
Now, they don't have Maxx Crosby, which hurts their pass rush, but the defense has enough pieces back to slow down Mac Jones and a very limited Jacksonville offense that is down three of its primary pass catchers and dealing with a beat-up offensive line.
Most importantly, Aidan O'Connell will return under center at quarterback. He's a big upgrade over Desmond Ridder and should find success in this particular matchup against the worst pass defense in the league by a wide margin.
The Jaguars also run a high frequency of man coverage (and don't get pressure), which the former Purdue product has had an abundance of success against this year, especially relative to his numbers against zone. Jacksonville has also struggled to contain tight ends, which could spell disaster against Brock Bowers, who's arguably already the best in the business at his position. While the rushing attack might not be there (as usual with Las Vegas), O'Connell should carve up this Jacksonville secondary all afternoon in Sin City.
Now, the Raiders' defense isn't great by any stretch, but it rates much better than Jacksonville despite those aforementioned injuries. On the season, the Raiders rank 20th in EPA per Play, while the Jaguars rank dead last. Under coordinator Patrick Graham, Las Vegas strives to take away the explosive play, forcing opposing quarterbacks to move the ball efficiently down the field. I'll pay to make Mac Jones, who has three Big Time Throws to eight Turnover Worthy Plays, do just that without making a critical mistake or two.
Speaking of which, don't be surprised if the Raiders finally get an overdue bounce. On the season, they have somehow only recovered a paltry six of 27 fumbles (22.2%), contributing to a league-worse -19 turnover margin.
All of the talk will be around the potential tank in this matchup, but these are still professionals playing for their jobs. That's not something I'm considering for either side. I just think the Raiders are the better team right now and are playing at home with a few key advantages on both sides of the ball.
Trending: Mac Jones is just 6-17 ATS (26.1%) as an underdog in his career as a starter, failing to cover by over four points per game on average.
*Bet to -1.5
