NFL Predictions for Week 14
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Brandon Anderson: The Eagles have the league's best offensive DVOA the last six weeks, while the Giants' lack of talent may finally be starting to catch up with them. New York ranks bottom-five defensively on the season, and the offense is slowly regressing — especially the struggling run game.
Philadelphia's defense looked itself against the Titans, and the run D was far better with the return of Jordan Davis. Philly's defense should hold up, and the Eagles might run all over the Giants.
Philly has won nine of the last 11 in this rivalry and should get the job done.
Rather than playing a side, I'm grabbing the under. The Giants have gone under 45.5 in nine of their 12 games with a max total of 49, and Daniel Jones home unders are 18-7-1 (72%).
Both teams run a lot, which should shorten this game. Plus, the Eagles are the NFL's slowest second-half team.
Since 2013, unders with totals above 44 and spreads at a touchdown or longer are 83-43-2 (66%), including 41-16-2 (72%) in division games. Unders for home dogs are also 53-25-1 (68%) this season.
Several late-season division trends apply. Such unders with a home underdog over six points are 37-20-3 (65%) since 2010, and weather could help the cause. The Sunday forecast for New York features a temperature in the low 40s and rain. Late division unders with 6+ mph wind at 47 degrees or below are 89-55-4 (62%).
The under could hit in a close, low-scoring battle, or it could hit like it did for Philly last week with a blowout Eagles win and very little scoring by the Giants.
This under is one of my favorite plays of the week.
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John LanFranca: I don't believe the Ravens should be catching points here if they were going to be installed as favorites with Lamar Jackson in the lineup.
Tyler Huntley is more than capable of giving the offense enough juice to win. When Huntley has played in relief of Jackson, including last week when he was not practicing as the starter, he has averaged just under 260 total yards per game.
With all of that said, the Ravens defense is the reason why I’m picking them to cover on the road. Pittsburgh has run for 157 yards per game over its last five contests, but I don’t expect them to get close to that number. Since Week 8, the Ravens have the third-best overall defensive DVOA and have only allowed 2.82 yards per carry.
Kenny Pickett hasn't thrown for more than 200 yards in four of the last five games, and he’ll have to do much more in this one. The Ravens boast the sixth-best adjusted sack rate on defense, and I expect them to bother the rookie often on obvious passing downs.
I will play the Steelers team total under 19.5, and I will grab the points with the division-leading Ravens.
I’d bet Baltimore down to a pick’em.
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Sam Farley: The Texans’ trip north to face the Cowboys gives us the biggest spread of the week, with the home team entering as a huge favorite.
No team has allowed more rushing yards this season than the Texans with 2,029, an average of 169.1 rushing yards per game. Now, they face the Cowboys with their one-two punch of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard.
Most people, except perhaps Jerry Jones, can see that Pollard is their most dynamic back. He is averaging 6.4 yards per touch this season, ahead of the likes of Travis Etienne, Josh Jacobs and Christian McCaffrey. Pollard also has more touchdown runs of 30 or more yards this season than any other running back in Cowboys history. He’s also third in yards per reception across all running backs in the league.
Pollard splits the work with Ezekiel Elliott, but with his ability to break tackles and burst through gaps into open space, he's worth backing at -110 to find the end zone against this weak Texans defense.
Pick: Tony Pollard Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-110) |
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Brandon Anderson: Deshaun Watson finally made his Cleveland debut, and his play mirrored his last 700 days without football. He was complete and absolute garbage, only to get totally bailed out anyway by his defense.
Watson's offense scored only six points, but the Browns scored three defense and special teams touchdowns. He completed just 12 passes for 131 yards and was awful on early downs at -0.51 EPA per pass play.
Cleveland's offense has actually been great this season without Watson, efficient in both the run and pass games. So far, Watson hasn't made the Browns better; he might have made them worse.
Of course, that was last week, and it was Watson's first game in almost two years on the road in Houston — a difficult spot for any number of reasons. He may be better in a second start, and the Browns have owned Ohio winning eight of the last nine in this rivalry.
The home/road splits here are significant. Cincinnati's defense ranks 17th in DVOA on the road but fourth at home, while Cleveland's home offense is best in the league at home but just 16th on the road.
The Browns have been a solid first-quarter team but typically fade late. When push comes to shove, Joe Burrow should pass all over this secondary.
I like the Bengals, but with this line creeping up, I'll play just the second half.
Even if the Browns get off to a better start, Cleveland remains awful in second halves, now sitting 19-37-1 ATS (34%) since October 2019. The Bengals, meanwhile, have covered 19 of their past 21 second halves (90%), thanks in part to outstanding defensive adjustments from defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo.
If the Bengals are already leading and the Browns are forced to abandon their great run game, I like the Bengals in the second half. If Cincinnati trails, I trust the better team to adjust and make that second-half push.
Either way, I know which side I want to be on.
Pick: Bengals 2H -2.5 |
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Sam Farley: OK, hear me out.
Chigoziem Okonkwo presents great value to find the end zone at +500, especially given that some books have him as short as +225 (we're looking at you, Caesars). The rookie only has one touchdown on the season, but there’s even more opportunity for him with Treylon Burks out.
Okonkwo has seen a target share above 20% in three of his past six games, and it looks like the team are beginning to give him more looks, with five targets in each of the past two games.
The Jags have only allowed four touchdowns to tight ends this season but at a big price like +650, you're still getting really good value on a player whose role should increase.
Use Action's Anytime Touchdown Scorer odds tracker to make sure you get the best odds on Okonkwo.
