NFL Predictions: Data-Driven Picks for Jahmyr Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, More
Action Network's Predictive Analytics team has eight data-driven picks for the AFC and NFC Championship Games on Sunday. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
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Chiefs vs. Ravens
By Billy Ward
I’m buying the Patrick Mahomes underdog trends. According to Evan Abrams, Mahomes is 8-3 straight up as an underdog in his career, and 5-0 in games where he opened as a 'dog of three or more points.
After the spread opened at +3, this line has shifted more than a point on FanDuel to +4.5. While it’s not a key number, the extra half-point could be significant here in what looks to be a close game.
Kansas City is peaking at the right time, looking like the vintage version of the team that’s won two of the last five super bowls. Thanks to the resurgence of star tight end Travis Kelce and emergence of running back Isaiah Pacheco as a true workhorse back, the Chiefs have averaged 26.5 points in the playoffs, even in tough weather conditions.
It should be easier going this week, which gives them a chance to keep pace in a shootout and cover the spread or win outright. I want to make sure I’m getting at least four points on the spread.
Pick: Chiefs +4.5 (-115)
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Chiefs vs. Ravens
By Nick Giffen
According to Pro Football Focus, the Ravens had the fifth-highest perfectly covered play rate in the NFL this season while the Chiefs (Mahomes) faced the seventh-lowest perfectly covered play rate.
That’s a big increase in perfectly covered plays for Mahomes compared to what he’s faced on average this year. That’s important because Mahomes is far and away the No. 1 quarterback in Create Rate, which is defined as a quarterback either throwing into an open window or — more importantly for this bet — running for positive EPA on a perfectly covered play.
In other words, Mahomes is one of the best at creating something out of nothing, often with his legs, and he’ll likely need to do that at a higher frequency against Baltimore than he’s had to in most games this season.
In addition, the current forecast for game time projects 10-14 mph winds with gusts as high as 25 mph, plus a 90% chance of rain. That’s likely to force a few more designed rushes, of which Mahomes may get the call on a percentage of those.
Finally, the in-game player prop model I use for Bet What Happens Live actually has the Chiefs running 2-3 plays more than the market is currently implying, with a relatively similar run-pass ratio projected.
Those could be designed runs, or pass plays where Mahomes has to scramble, so either way that likely extra play volume is another reason to like the over.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 4.5 Rush Attempts (-118)
Chiefs vs. Ravens
By Billy Ward
If sites were offering “any player other than Christian McCaffrey” as the leading rusher, that would be my bet. McCaffrey is the odds-on favorite, with odds in the -130 range to lead Championship Sunday in rushing yards.
Of the four teams playing, three of them rank below average in yards allowed per carry on the season — fourth are the Lions. Detroit's defense is built to stop the run, checking in at third in both DVOA and yards allowed per play.
With the Lions also being the only team remaining without a top-five passing defense, San Francisco should look to attack through the air. A good chunk of that might still be McCaffrey – but this market only looks at rushing yards.
Pacheco has the distinct advantage of also being a workhorse back, the only player other than McCaffrey who can make that claim. The matchup in the trenches isn’t great for the Chiefs, but he should see enough volume to have a reasonable shot at the leading mark.
Pick: Most Rushing Yards on Sunday — Isiah Pacheco (+450)
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Lions vs. 49ers
By Nick Giffen
We’re getting a discount on McCaffrey because of the Lions’ low target rate allowed to running backs. Detroit allows the fourth-fewest targets per game to the position, thanks in large part to a No. 1 pressure rate and top-10 man coverage rate.
Against most backs, that’s enough to reduce reception volume as they either stay in to block more, are subbed out for better blocking backs or man marked out of the play.
But McCaffrey already faces the highest rate of man coverage among all RBs — in fact, he sees his target share increase from 18.1% of routes run against zone coverage to 23.7% of routes run against man coverage.
In addition, McCaffrey isn’t staying in to block. The whole point of San Francisco's offense is to get him the ball, and with Detroit’s No. 1 rush defense (by DVOA), expect the 49ers to use the short pass as an extension of the run game as a way to get around the Lions' front seven.
I’m projecting McCaffrey for just over five receptions, and should Deebo Samuel, who was removed the injury report, experience any in-game setbacks, that would just increase McCaffrey’s upside in this market.
Pick: Christian McCaffrey Over 4.5 Receptions (-118)
Lions vs. 49ers
By Billy Ward
Gibbs has to split carries with David Montgomery, but he has everything else working for him. He ranked third among all backs in yards per carry this season; San Francisco ranks 18th in yards allowed per carry. The rookie also has the burst to break a long run or two.
While Detroit being seven-point underdogs doesn’t feel great for its ground game, it might benefit Gibbs. He tends to see more action when the Lions are trailing, giving him more opportunities to break big plays.
Beyond Gibbs, and the aforementioned Pacheco, if you really wanted to pursue the “Not McCaffrey” angle, consider Lamar Jackson at +450.
Pick: Most Rushing Yards on Sunday — Jahmyr Gibbs (+1000)
Lions vs. 49ers
By Billy Ward
Data on which team won the opening coin toss and what they chose to do with that win — kick or receive — are frustratingly hard to come by. With that said, as a longtime Lions fan, I couldn’t help but notice something in the playoffs.
In both games so far, Detroit won the opening coin toss. Most coaches choose to defer possession to the start of the second half – but not Dan Campbell. The uber-aggressive head coach has chosen to receive the opening kick in both Lions playoff games, which has led to Detroit scoring first in both games — though not on the opening drive in one of them.
Assuming the 49ers continue to go with the more traditional option of kicking off, that nearly guarantees Detroit gets the first crack at possession. While that doesn’t mean a score against a tough 49ers defense, it’s enough that +120 on them scoring first is a strong bet.
For what it’s worth, San Francisco allowed Green Bay to score on the opening drive in the Divisional Round, and Detroit has a more dangerous offense by far.
Pick: Detroit to Score First (+120)
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Lions vs. 49ers
By Nick Giffen
There are plenty of reasons to like the first half as the highest scoring half — yet we’re getting even money on it.
Every single pace split favors a slow-paced second half, whether it’s the Lions leading by a touchdown or more, the 49ers leading by a touchdown or more or the likely close-game scenario.
In fact, the close-game scenario represents the slowest paced of the options, where the teams should average more than one-and-a-quarter seconds per play slower than the NFL average in close games.
The next-most likely scenario is a 49ers lead, and while these teams do slow down compared to NFL average when one team has a TD or more lead, it’s not by a ton. However, the factor in favor of lower scoring is how the game script is likely to play out in this scenario.
A 49ers lead means they are likely to run the ball more, right into the Lions’ No. 1 rush defense (per DVOA).
On the flip side, the Lions should pass more — the 49ers rank fourth in defensive DVOA against the pass compared to just 15th against the run.
The lower efficiency should hurt both teams’ chances of scoring.
Clearly, a Lions lead by more than a score would be the worst-case scenario for this bet because each offense would be playing into the weaker part of the opposing defense. But even then, we still have these two teams averaging around 0.6 seconds per play slower than the NFL average.
Pick: Highest Scoring Half — First (+100)
Lions vs. 49ers
By Billy Ward
I’ve been hoping for a sportsbook to post team sack lines for years, and now we have one. The newly launched ESPN Bet offers team sack lines, a market that should be fairly ripe with edges.
There are a few components to this bet. The first is that I expect the play calling for both teams to diverge from what we’d expect in a typical game script. The Lions are a significant pass funnel on defense, which should force the 49ers to the air even when protecting a lead.
The next part is the Lions' much-improved pass rush. Detroit has multiple sacks in eight straight games, five of those games would’ve cleared this line. That’s without sophomore edge rusher James Houston, who picked up eight sacks in seven games last season, but has been out since Week 2. He was reportedly “very close” to returning as of Friday; he would help to take some pressure off Aidan Hutchinson even on limited snaps.
The well-regarded offensive line of the 49ers is considerably better in run blocking than pass protection. San Francisco ranked just 18th in adjusted sack rate allowed compared to second in adjusted line yards in the running game.
I wish this bet was offered as a head-to-head with both teams as I expect the Lions to play run heavy as long as possible, and the 49ers' pass rush hasn’t produced a three-sack game in the last four weeks.
Unfortunately, we have to pick which team to take (the 49ers' line is also set at 2.5). I like the bigger plus-money odds on the Lions over compared to the 49ers under, though either option makes sense.
