Our staff is focused on four Sunday games for its NFL predictions in Week 15.
We have three bets against the spread, including two between playoff hopefuls. We're also betting the under in the game with the biggest spread of the season.
Let's dive into our experts' NFL predictions for this weekend's Sunday slate.
NFL Predictions: Spreads & Over/Unders
- Jets vs. Jaguars: Jaguars +3.5 (-115)
- Ravens vs. Giants: Under 43 (-115)
- Dolphins vs. Texans: Dolphins +3 (-112)
- Steelers vs. Eagles: Steelers +5.5 (-110)
Jets vs. Jaguars
Jaguars +3.5 (-115)
By Simon Hunter
The Jaguars are my favorite home 'dog of the week in what is a truly gross matchup against the Jets. This is the kind of game you'll bet then not check in until the fourth quarter because it's so ugly.
The Jets are still a public and pro bettors' darling. This spread has once again moved in favor of New York, this time past a key number.
Now, I'm sure you already know, but Aaron Rodgers and the Jets have been awful against the spread (ATS) this season. Since Week 4, the Jets are 1-9 straight-up and 2-8 ATS, which is tied for the worst record of any team in the NFL.
Rodgers passed for 300 yards last week for the first time since December 2021, and people are clearly buying into that as an improvement. His numbers over the course of the season, though, look like a 40-year-old quarterback coming off a major injury. Of the 33 quarterbacks who have played at least 200 snaps since Week 4, Rodgers ranks 28th in EPA/play, 29th in Success Rate, 30th in CPOE and 26th in aDOT, according to Evan Abrams.
This bet is about the number. I see 3.5 points as showing way too much respect for a Jets team that has struggled all season.
Also, Doug Pederson is 39-28 ATS as an underdog this season, including 7-2 this season. Shop around to make sure you get 3.5 points so you're on the right side of the hook.
Pick: Jaguars +3.5 (-115)
Ravens vs. Giants
Under 43 (-115)
The Giants have failed to score double-digit points in four games this season, and I wouldn't be surprised if this Tommy DeVito-led offense struggles to get in the end zone more than once on Sunday.
The Giants average just 4.7 yards per play this season, which ranks 31st in the NFL. In DeVito's only start this season back in Week 12, the New York offense was even worse and averaged just 4.4 yards per play. New York scored just seven points in that game, a blowout loss to the Buccaneers.
The Ravens rush defense has been elite this season. An impressive 21% of all rush attempts against them have been stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage, which is the fifth-highest rate in the NFL, matching their No. 5 DVOA ranking against the run.
Balitmore's defensive struggles have come against strong passing games, but the Giants do not have the personnel to exploit them.
Only 17% of all Giants' offensive plays have gained 10 or more yards, the fifth-lowest rate in football. If the Giants are going to generate points, they'll have to sustain long drives without the assistance of the running game. Even if they reach the red zone, it is highly likely they fail to cash in for touchdowns. New York has been kept out of the end zone on 58.3% of their red-zone trips, the highest rate in the NFL.
With the potential for the weather to mix in some rain and wind in New York Sunday afternoon, I'd play this total down to 41.5.
Pick: Under 43 (-115)
Dolphins vs. Texans
Dolphins +3 (-112)
By Sam Farley
Expectations were high for C.J. Stroud and the Texans offense entering this season. Instead, Houston has disappointed on that side of the ball, especially over the last month.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins are trending in the opposite direction. Miami has won three straight games and are fighting to come back and earn an AFC playoff spot.
The Dolphins are 6-7 on the season, but they're 5-4 with Tua Tagovailoa under center. Miami has scored at least 30 points in three of its last four games entering this matchup with a stout Texans defense.
The Dolphins could pull off an upset here, so I'll take the field goal.
Pick: Dolphins +3 (-112)
Steelers vs. Eagles
Steelers +5.5 (-110)
When it comes to return on your investment, nobody thrives as an underdog more than Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin.
Tomlin is an astounding 12% return on investment better than the next best head coach of all-time in Action Lab's database. When Tomlin's teams have caught more than three points, they're 28-16 (63.6%) against the spread. In the 29 games the Steelers have been an underdog of more than four points, they've covered at a 65.5% rate under Tomlin.
Oddsmakers have consistently underestimated this Steelers team in 2024. Not only is their record 10-3, but they're 10-3 against the spread, as well. There simply has not been enough of an adjustment given how well this team is playing.
Also, since Russell Wilson has taken over as the starting quarterback, no offense in football has averaged more explosive plays of 20+ yards per game.
Jalen Hurts' big-time throw rate and turnover-worthy throw rate are identical. Something is awry with the Eagles' passing attack. Facing a Steelers defense that welcomed Alex Highsmith back into the lineup last week, Hurts may be in store for a long day.
When Highsmith has been on the field this season, the Steelers have generated pressure at a rate of 39%, which would rank them second in the NFL. Hurts has completed fewer than half of his passes and averaged just 5.1 yards per attempt when he's under pressure this season.
The Steelers are 5-0 this season against the number as underdogs, winning each of those games outright. I am simply not seeing five points of separation between two teams both squarely in the same tier of contenders right now, so I'll take the points here and would recommend betting Pittsburgh down to +4.5 points.
Pick: Steelers +5.5 (-110)
