NFL Predictions: Expert Divisional Round Picks
Every week during the 2023-24 NFL season, I'll be sharing my favorite picks against the spread (ATS) and betting card for every day of the playoff slate in my NFL predictions & expert Divisional Round picks.
For reference, my record in this file currently sits at 43-20 (68.2%) for +20.95 units.
For the Divisional Round, I will share my three favorite bets that include two sides on Saturday and a prop target on Sunday.
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| Stuckey's NFL Picks |
|---|
| Texans vs. Ravens |
| Packers vs. 49ers |
| Buccaneers vs. Lions |
I like the Ravens for the full game, but I prefer the first half (1H) a bit more for a few reasons I'll mention below.
First, with two weeks to prepare, Baltimore will obviously come into this game much healthier than the Texans, who are already undermanned in the secondary and at wide receiver, and dealing with some injuries at defensive end.
Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens have historically excelled with extra prep time, but I think it's even more of a benefit this season due to the quality of both coordinators, who have consistently come up with excellent game plans all season. It's one of the reasons why the Ravens have an average margin of victory of over two touchdowns against the eight playoff teams they faced (removing the finale with backups against the Steelers).
Defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald has customized his weekly game plans based on the opponent more than any other coordinator in the league. The Ravens have no real identity on defense — this makes them flexible, versatile and tough for opponents to scheme against.
For this particular matchup, I'm assuming Baltimore goes with a more man-heavy approach since C.J. Stroud has had significantly more success against zone. I expect plenty of exotic blitzes and simulated pressures to confuse the young signal-caller into a key mistake or two, especially since Baltimore can consistently generate pressure, which is paramount against the outstanding Ohio State product.
On the other side of the ball, I expect the Ravens to come out with an aggressive, pass-heavy approach since the Texans have fared exponentially better against the run. On the season, Houston ranks first in Success Rate against the run compared to 19th against the pass. And that doesn't even account for the fact that Houston faced almost no elite passing offenses to date.
In fact, the only offense ranked in the top 10 in EPA per Play that Houston has faced this season was Baltimore in Week 1 (a 25-9 loss), but even that was a Ravens offense playing their first game in a brand new scheme.
Some other notes to chew on:
- Over the last 10 weeks, the only playoff quarterback Houston faced was Joe Flacco.
- Besides Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield was the only other quarterback ranked inside the top 16 in EPA.
Conversely, the Ravens finished as the top defense in the league even with a top-five schedule and seeing eight of the top 16 quarterbacks in EPA.
Facing this Baltimore offense might be a shock to the system, especially since Houston plays an abundance of zone and doesn't blitz at a high frequency. That's not an ideal formula for success against Jackson, who has absolutely carved up zone defenses in Todd Monken's system, completing over 70% of his passes with an EPA per dropback of 0.1 and success rate north of 50%.
He also scrambled more with better success against zone, which might seem counterintuitive, but Jackson's speed negates logic when it comes to scrambling. Teams also tend to struggle more earlier in the game adjusting to required angles against Jackson, which is one of the reasons he has fared so well in the first half against the spread historically.
Even with an extremely easy schedule (bottom five) of opposing offenses, Houston graded out as one of the worst tackling teams in the league. That's not ideal in freezing cold temperatures for a dome team against this potent offense that may even get Mark Andrews back in some capacity.
Additionally, Houston has started slow all season, with last week being a clear exception rather than the rule. It ranked 20th in first-quarter scoring (Baltimore fourth) compared to ninth in the fourth quarter.
Lastly, don't forget about the pretty substantial home-field advantage (with conditions) and superior special teams for Baltimore.
For what it's worth, Jackson is the most profitable quarterback in NFL history in the 1H. He has gone a ridiculous 50-25-2 (66.7%) ATS in the 1H, covering by a field goal per game on average. Meanwhile, Harbaugh is the most profitable coach in NFL history in the 1H with an ATS record of 148-108-3 (59%).
There's obviously some overlap there, but Harbaugh is still 98-78-6 (55.7%) if you remove Jackson, including 7-2 against the number in Tyler Huntley starts.
Pick: Ravens First Half -5.5 (-115) | Play to -6.5 (-110)
I think this line should be over 10, but we're getting a bit of a discount on the 49ers due to recency bias after what the Packers did to the Cowboys last week. It feels like many are forgetting just how dominant San Francisco was all season when fully healthy, sans the loss to Baltimore.
I bet Green Bay in the Wild Card Round, but don't have the same positive sentiment ahead of this matchup.
For starters, Dallas didn't have an efficient run game all season, but that couldn't be further from the truth for San Francisco, which led the NFL in both Rush Success Rate and Rush EPA (by a wide margin). That spells trouble for a vulnerable run-funnel Green Bay defense.
Additionally, the Packers have struggled to defend the middle of the field, running backs, tight ends and wide receivers in the slot. That's a nightmare combination against this offense, especially when you consider Brock Purdy has absolutely shredded Cover 3 defenses, which he'll likely see plenty of on Saturday.
In my opinion, the biggest mismatch of the weekend is Kyle Shanahan (who has had extra time to prepare, to boot) vs. Joe Barry. I just don't see how Green Bay gets any stops without flukes.
Don't forget, this Green Bay defense didn't grade out well even against a very easy schedule of opposing offenses — it even got to face the Rams with Brett Rypien at quarterback, the Vikings with Jaren Hall and Giants with Tommy DeVito — and grade out as a very poor tackling team.
On the other side of the ball, Jordan Love has been playing at an ultra-high level. He's arguably been the best statistical quarterback since Week 11. However, even if he continues this extremely high level of play, which is far from a given, the San Francisco defense should get a few more stops.
There are a few holes in the 49ers' stop unit, but this is still a top-five unit that will be healthier with the likely return of Arik Armstead and Dre Greenlaw. With Armstead, the 49ers will finally have their full complement of defensive linemen, which should lead to a substantial increase in pressure rate across the board.
Also, the Packers have one of the worst special teams units in the league, which matters even more on the road in the playoffs, assuming they don't just blow the 49ers out of the water like they did to the Cowboys.
Green Bay has been awesome of late, but I think the love has gone a bit too far after one game. This is a team that also lost in December on the road to Tommy DeVito. It's still a defense that ranks in the bottom six in both overall and weighted DVOA. The rested 49ers at home still have a much better offense, defense and special teams.
I'm not a huge fan of laying these big numbers in the NFL, especially with Shanahan, who tends to get a bit conservative with leads in the second half of games. And this game will certainly be played at a very slow pace with both offenses operating at a snail's pace.
However, even if he does go that route and go with a much heavier run approach with a lead, that should work just fine against a Green Bay defense that ranked 22nd in Rush EPA.
Ultimately, I just don't see how the Packers will get enough stops to keep this close, while San Francisco's defense should, even if Love continues his recent ridiculous run.
Pick: 49ers -9.5 or Better
I would almost certainly play the Bucs at +7, but I have already played a number of Chris Godwin targets, which are a bit correlated with the side since I truly believe they need to come out throwing from start to finish against the Lions.
Tampa did not have an efficient ground game all season (28th Rush DVOA), while Detroit's defense was pretty stout against the run, finishing first in Rush DVOA.
At times, Tampa has tried to force the run a bit too much, especially on early downs. However, I'm fairly confident the staff understands the assignment this week, especially after seeing the game plan (75% neutral pass rate) against the Eagles.
In the first meeting, while Tampa only scored six total points, Baker Mayfield was consistently chucking downfield throughout the game. He simply had an off day, missing multiple wide-open receivers downfield.
Therefore, I believe Tampa will have a pass-heavy game plan in a game where they are also more likely to be trailing than leading. Being indoors with no conditions with a healthier Mayfield also doesn't hurt against a Detroit defense that gave up the third-most passing yards to wide receivers in the regular season.
So, why have I targeted Godwin?
Well, I believe he's going to get ample advantageous opportunities to line up against Kindle Vildor, who allowed a whopping 22.8 yards per catch. To put that number into perspective, the next-highest number allowed is 17.8 among 151 cornerbacks who played at least 100 coverage snaps. Godwin should eat him up.
There's a chance Detroit will use Cam Sutton to shadow Mike Evans, which would increase the snaps for Godwin on Vildor even more. But even if not, Godwin lines up out wide to the right more often than the left, which is where Vildor usually is if Sutton isn't shadowing.
The Bucs have reduced Godwin's slot snaps in recent weeks, which is good news for his production since that is where Detroit has its best coverage options with Brian Branch and C.J. Gardner-Johnson.
Additionally, it doesn't hurt that tight end Cade Otton had a career-best game in the Wild Card Round, so the Lions' linebackers and safeties will have to be a bit more cognizant of the Washington product.
It's worth mentioning the head official in this game is Bill Vinovich, who swallows his whistle as much as any official in the league, which might reduce the hollow yards gained through pass interference.
I personally split my bet in three and will likely add some touchdown exposure:
- Longest Reception Over 21.5 Yards (-120)
- Receiving Yards Over 59.5 Yards (-110)
- Receptions Over 5.5 (+125)
