Don’t fall for the easy logic in the final week of the regular season. Since 1990, eliminated teams playing teams that need to win over the final two weeks of the regular season have gone 100-64-4 (60.3%) against the spread (ATS).
I have an angle that always plays a big part in my NFL predictions & picks for Week 18.
This week, I've previewed every game and have a breakdown as to whether I think it's worth betting.
NFL Predictions: Week 18
Teams that the market perceives as "dead" actually have a chance to play spoiler in what becomes a Super Bowl for them of sorts. They may also come out of the gates much looser, while the team that needs to win might play tighter and closer to the vest (leading to conservative decisions) while having to cover a usually inflated spread. Ultimately, these are still professional athletes playing for jobs, contracts and incentives.
Almost every year in the NFL, we see major upsets in the final week of the regular season. I list some infamous examples from previous seasons here, but look no further than last year when the Titans eliminated the Jaguars on the final Sunday of the year. Two years ago, the eliminated Lions upset the Packers to send Green Bay packing. You may also recall three seasons ago when the Jaguars pulled off a monumental upset over the Colts, who just needed to win to get in as two-touchdown favorites.
To illustrate these spots another way, teams with a win percentage between 40-60% in Week 16 or later have gone just 29-74-5 (28.2%) ATS against opponents with an 8-25% worse winning percentage, failing to cover by four points per game on average since 2003. This week, that applies to the Falcons, Texans, Colts and Dolphins, who play the Panthers, Titans, Jaguars and Jets.
A trio of eliminated teams fit this trend this season against teams needing to win:
I show value in all three of those underdogs, as I expected. That doesn't mean all three favorites can't cover, especially in a season dominated by chalk.
However, just be aware you might be paying a premium to back the teams in must-win situations.
See below for my thoughts on every game on Sunday, including those three matchups.
All odds listed below are as of Saturday at 12:30 p.m. ET.
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Panthers vs. Falcons
I project the Panthers at right around a touchdown underdog, so that would be the side for me. However, the injury situation for Carolina is potentially catastrophic, especially on defense. As a result, I prefer the over to the side.
Michael Penix Jr. has looked poised in his first two starts and he opens up Atlanta's offense with his ability to throw outside the tackle box, which was simply nonexistent with Kirk Cousins. Atlanta should also have plenty of success handing it off against a putrid Panthers run defense.
On the other side, Bryce Young has looked much better (and way more poised himself) since being re-inserted into the starting lineup. And without Chuba Hubbard (IR), I expect the Panthers to go pass-heavy in an offensive-friendly environment.
I mean why wouldn't Carolina want to get as many looks at Young as possible to close out the season? For what it's worth, the first meeting had 58 points and a similar total outdoors.
I'd bet the over up to 48.
Pick: Over 47.5 (-112, DraftKings)
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Saints vs. Buccaneers
I was interested in the Saints earlier in the week due to the potential upside of getting Derek Carr back from injury, in addition to possibly Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave.
Well, Carr has been ruled out and Kamara was listed as doubtful on Friday's injury report, although he still has an outside shot of suiting up. Without those two, it's back to quarterback Spencer Rattler, who ranks 46th out of 46 quarterbacks (min. 100 dropbacks) in CPOE+EPA. He even trails DTR in that statistic.
To be fair, it's not like Rattler has much to work with. The interior of the Saints' offensive line remains banged up and there have been extreme injuries at all of the skill positions. There's also no Taysom Hill to save the day as the ultimate Swiss army knife.
The Saints defense has not performed much better, especially against the run (30th in Success Rate), which is extremely problematic against Bucky Irving, who spearheads a top-five rush offense in terms of both Success Rate and EPA.
In the first meeting, Tampa racked up nearly 600 yards of total offense in a 51-27 blowout that got out of hand in the second half after New Orleans led at the half in an early season Rattler start.
I can't make many on-field arguments for backing the Saints, but the number is simply too high, especially at +14.5, which is out there as I type this. I project this spread at right around 12, so getting above 14 is certainly worth a bet in my eyes even if I have to hold my nose and look away while hitting submit.
Just look at some of the data points over the past few weeks.
The Bucs only closed as a 7-point favorite at home against the Raiders, who just closed as a 2-point favorite in New Orleans. The Saints were also 14-point underdogs in Green Bay (way less ideal conditions for a dome team in December) against a Packers team I have favored by about three points on a neutral field over the Bucs.
Now, I have upgraded the Bucs over the past few weeks despite a loss to the Cooper Rush-led Cowboys. And I've also downgraded the Saints some more following a pair of blowout losses sandwiched in between a competitive loss to the Commanders. But I still can't get to this number.
This is the definition of paying a premium in the final week of the season to back a team that needs to win against a very bad team.
There is some upside potential with Kamara (although I'm not banking on it) and Olave (he did practice in full, but I have no idea if he'll suit up) returning, while the Bucs will be shorthanded in the secondary without star safety Antoine Winfield and top corner Jamel Dean. The backdoor could also be wide open here if needed.
With all of the pressure on the Bucs, they may play a bit tight — although just handing it off might work perfectly fine. I do expect the Saints to at least show up against a divisional rival that embarrassed them on their home field in the first meeting, especially with a chance to end their season. In a lost season for the Saints, this game now becomes their only playoff matchup.
From a pure projections standpoint, it's Saints or nothing, especially above 14.
Pick: Saints +14.5 (-115, ESPN BET)
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Texans vs. Titans
Despite being locked into the No. 4 seed, the Texans plan to play their starters for at least a portion of the game, but we still have no idea who exactly will play and for how long.
Therefore, I have no interest in getting involved in this one. I'll simply be keeping my eye on Houston's offense to see if it can get anything going ahead of the playoffs and whether the Titans finish their historically bad season ATS (2-14 currently) with another non-cover.
Commanders vs. Cowboys
This is a potentially tricky situational spot for the Commanders, who are coming off one of the biggest wins in recent franchise history. They still have plenty of motivation — a win would lock up the No. 6 seed in the NFC, which would send them in all likelihood to Tampa Bay (or Los Angeles) instead of Philadelphia.
While I had the Cowboys circled early in the week, reports mid-week started swirling that Trey Lance could get the start or see plenty of action. That would be less than ideal.
While I don't think Cooper Rush is a world-beater, I don't have much optimism on Lance, especially without Ceedee Lamb, who the Cowboys missed last week in Philadelphia. As a result of this news, the line has moved with the Commanders climbing from a 4.5-point favorite to a 6.5-point favorite at the moment.
Without knowing the actual plan at quarterback for Dallas, this game becomes much more difficult to bet. If it does reach a touchdown (which I think is more likely than not), I will be playing the Cowboys.
Before last week, they were at least showing fight during a 4-1 stretch that included a pair of wins over projected playoff teams in the Bucs and the Commanders in Washington. In that game, they did a fairly commendable job against the Washington rushing attack, and we do know Dallas can still generate pressure, especially with Micah Parsons back in the mix.
I also think this Commanders team is extremely overrated in the market at the moment. Yes, Jayden Daniels has had a remarkable rookie season, but this roster just isn't filled with talent. They've also benefited from the easiest schedule in the league this season, per my numbers, while going 7-2 in games decided by seven points or fewer, including five victories that have come on the final play of the game.
The Commanders have the lowest SOS in the conference and a strength of victory of only .347, which is the lowest of any NFC playoff team by far, and even lower than the following NFC non-playoff teams: Dallas, Seattle, Arizona, Atlanta, San Francisco, and New York.
Just take a look at their past three victories. Washington beat the bottom-feeder Saints in New Orleans by one point after New Orleans failed to convert a two-point attempt with no time on the clock. They followed that up with a three-point victory over the Eagles on a last-second touchdown after Jalen Hurts left with an injury in a game that appeared to be headed toward a Philly blowout win. That comeback victory over Kenny Pickett will likely be the only win of the season that comes against a playoff team.
Then, last week against a rookie quarterback making his first career road start, the Commanders overcame a 10-point halftime deficit to win in overtime after the Falcons missed a game-winning field goal and botched the clock management at the end of both halves. There was also a questionable game-swinging illegal contact that helped Washington in the second half.
The Commanders have a vulnerable defense, especially against the run. Dallas can lean on Rico Dowdle, who has come on of late since Dallas altered its offensive scheme. Since Week 12, the Cowboys rank 10th in Rush Success Rate and 12th in EPA per Rush on Early Downs after ranking 25th and 31st, respectively, over the first 11 weeks.
Additionally, the Commanders offense has dipped significantly efficiency-wise over the second half of the season, which is nothing new for a Kliff Kingsbury attack.
If we focus on the more predictive early downs, the Commanders ranked third in EPA per Play and fifth in Success Rate over the first half of the season. During the second half of the year, they rank 20th and 14th, respectively. They'll also be without their starting center for this game.
Washington has benefited from some good fortune in terms of fumbles lost (only 6 of 19) and fourth-down conversions (19-for-22), so the variance monster is certainly looming against a Cowboys team that has only converted 9-of-26 fourth-down attempts and been much less fortunate in terms of recovering fumbles.
Lastly, don't underestimate the impact of Brandon Aubrey's kicking prowess at home.
I expect the Cowboys to show up for their home season finale against a hated division rival, but I'm waiting for Cowboys +7, which I need without more clarity into how McCarthy plans to handle Lance and Rush.
Pick: Cowboys +7
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Packers vs. Bears
The Packers don't control anything with their result, as they would need Washington to lose to jump up a seed, so they could potentially scoreboard-watch in that second half to determine if they want to pull any starters. They also could decide to err on the side of caution with any players dealing with injuries.
The Bears have not looked like a serious organization all season and things have arguably gotten worse since Thomas Brown took over, as the defense seemingly misses Matt Eberflus.
This feels a touch high at 10, but I'm currently not running to the window to back Chicago, which has lost 11 straight to its division rival.
Eagles vs. Giants
It's the Eagles backups vs. the Giants starters (with a few offensive line injuries). The big news is Philadelphia won't play Saquon Barkley, who had a chance to break the single-season rushing record against his old team.
But Barkley is far from the only starter sitting out. The Eagles will also be without Hurts, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, three starting offensive linemen, and four starters on defense. With backup quarterback Pickett also dealing with a rib injury, it's likely third-string Tanner McKee will get his first start. Has the market adjusted enough? It's tough to say, especially since I have much less of an idea of what to expect from McKee, who has four career pass attempts (two of which went for touchdowns last week).
I don't have a strong take on this game, but the Giants are a potentially intriguing teaser option going through 3 and 7 in a game with a total of only 37. This one could be ugly.
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Patriots vs. Bills
A lot of uncertainty in this game in regards to exactly who will play for the Bills and for how long since Buffalo is locked into the No. 2 seed in the AFC. There are also some questions about who will play quarterback for the Patriots. Could Joe Milton get some snaps? That could make some sense for the organization since New England would lock up the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft with a loss.
I would've been interested in backing the Patriots (or looking to bet them live) if I knew Drake Maye would start the entire game, as I believe it's a significant drop-off to Milton. I don't hate a live under look or teasing the Patriots in a game with a total of 36.5, but this is a tough one to crack for a multitude of reasons.
Jaguars vs. Colts
Do the Colts (especially their defense) show up after having their season end in embarrassing fashion last week? That's probably what determines the cover, as I do think Joe Flacco (who will get the start once again just two weeks shy of his 40th birthday) should absolutely torch this Jaguars defense, which is the worst in the league against the pass. Flacco did so in Jacksonville earlier this season and now gets a healthier offense in friendlier conditions. I don't hate a Colts team total overlook in a game where there are no concerns on either side with resting starters.
Jets vs. Dolphins
The one I like the most is the Jets, who I project as a favorite, assuming Tyler Huntley starts for Miami, which looks to be the case. The Jets have looked completely lost in some weeks, but have been uber-competitive (and just extremely unlucky) in others. Against a division rival with a chance to end their season, I would anticipate the Jets to show up with maximum effort in this particular spot.
There are lingering injury questions on both sides of the ball for each team that could be impactful, but I had to bet the Jets as an underdog. Maybe this is the week the fourth down variance finally breaks their way against a Dolphins team that has scored 3, 12, 15, 10, and 20 (average of 12.0) in the five non-Tua starts this season.
I'd bet the Jets down to a pick'em.
Pick: Jets PK (-110)
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Chiefs vs. Broncos
The Broncos also need to win but will play a Chiefs team that will rest its starters. I do think there's some value in Kansas City at the current price, but there's still some lingering uncertainty as it pertains to who exactly will suit up for the Chiefs. There have even been rumblings we could see some of third-string quarterback Chris Oladukon, which obviously wouldn't be ideal against a Broncos team that is perfect ATS as a favorite this season.
