Week 18 in the NFL is always goofy, with some teams incentivized to lose and others fighting for their lives. Meanwhile, some teams are resting key starters altogether.
That can make it tempting for bettors to throw their hands up and skip most of the Week 18 slate, but where many see confused incentives and oddly priced lines, I see opportunity.
Bettors tend to over-index on player incentives — remember, sportsbooks know about those too! — and under-index on team motivation and the way those perceived incentives shift lines. It's obvious books are pricing in motivation for teams in must-win spots, but history tells us these lines often end up being over-inflated, which leaves huge opportunities for bettors.
If you're going to bet Week 18, the only way to do so is to bet aggressively. I've got five bets on a handful of lines that might be way off if my read is right, so each bet also comes with an aggressive escalator or two.
Let's get to the NFL Week 18 picks and predictions.
NFL Predictions: Week 18
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Panthers vs. Falcons
Panthers +8.5 (-110) & ML (350)
We're ending the season right back where we began: on Panthers Island, baby!
This might actually be one of my favorite bets of the entire season. I really like how the Panthers are playing over the back half of the schedule and do not think these teams are that far apart. I'd make this line closer to Atlanta -3.5, leaving serious value on the Panthers.
Atlanta was the second-worst team in the NFL over the final six weeks of the Kirk Cousins era by DVOA, so how much has really changed under Michael Penix? The passing attack hasn't. Atlanta is still in the bottom quarter of the league by DVOA passing in Penix's two starts.
The Falcons are running the ball well and should find success against Carolina there, but Atlanta's real improvement has come on defense, not at quarterback. The defense suddenly ranks top five against the pass with an out-of-nowhere pass rush, but those numbers can be fluky over a small sample — something Carolina just showed us, playing top-five pass defense for most of the second half of the season before cratering last week against a great Bucs passing attack.
Carolina already has its coach and its quarterback. This team is not tanking. If anything, this is the Panthers' Super Bowl. And though Atlanta is on the cusp of the playoffs, I'd take Dave Canales' staff over Raheem Morris' right now, and I'd also take Bryce Young, with the way he's been playing, over Penix.
The only way to get to Atlanta -8.5 is if this sudden defensive leap is real, but I don't see the talent to believe. This defense could not get off the field Sunday night in Washington with its season on the line, and that unit was on the field for 77 plays and almost 42 minutes of possession after an overtime loss. Carolina's offense will have its chances against this tired unit.
Teams with a 40-60% win rate, like Atlanta, playing an opponent 8-25% worse are 31-77-5 ATS (39%) from Week 16 forward over the past two decades. Must-win teams facing eliminated teams are just 40% ATS over the final two weeks of the season. History tells us books are pricing in too much of a must-win tax here.
Teams that just lost by 31+ and are underdogs of four or more are 68% ATS, and road teams after failing to cover by 24+ points are 65% ATS.
Carolina is not as bad as it looked last week, and the Panthers may not be much worse than the Falcons at all.
Take Panthers +8.5, but don't stop there. Play Carolina on the moneyline at +350 (BetMGM) because the Panthers can win this outright.
In fact, there's one more reason Atlanta may be overpriced.
The Falcons don't control their destiny — they need the Bucs to lose at home to a terrible Saints team that's a two-touchdown underdog. If Tampa Bay is up big in its simultaneous game, Atlanta will already know its season is over, and that kills off those baked-in motivation points on the spread.
You can parlay Bucs -14 to win comfortably with Panthers moneyline at +759 (BetMGM).
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Commanders vs. Cowboys
Cowboys +6.5 (-110)
This might actually end up being the second-most important game of the day on Sunday since it determines the path for the Packers, who might still be as good as any NFC team. A Commanders win gives Washington the 6-seed and a game against the Bucs or Rams, a far preferable path than falling to the 7-seed and opening against the Eagles, Green Bay's current fate.
That means books are pricing motivation in for Washington, and it means this line is too high.
Dallas beat Washington by eight the Sunday before Thanksgiving, and this is a long division rivalry with plenty at stake. Dan Quinn faces his old team in Dallas, and Mike McCarthy and Mike Zimmer might be coaching for their future, especially after getting embarrassed last week.
Washington is flying high after its huge Sunday night win to secure a playoff spot, but that also leaves this team tired after an overtime game, and it puts the Commanders in an emotional letdown spot.
The Commanders have played well over the past six weeks, ranking 10th in DVOA, but that's actually one spot behind the Cowboys! Dallas has been around average offensively, even with Cooper Rush, and the defense has been a top-10 unit since the return of Micah Parsons, who would probably be the DPOY if he had played all season. The Cowboys pass defense has been especially good, and that means Washington's defense is still the weakest unit on the field in this game.
Dallas is one of the most disappointing teams this season, but don't confuse disappointing with bad. The Cowboys are more mediocre than terrible. Washington is probably the right favorite, but I can't get to more than Commanders -1 or -2, so this is a steep must-win tax that could even get to -7 by game day.
Teams that lose by 31+ points that are underdogs of four or more are 68% ATS the following week, and division underdogs playing indoors from Week 14 forward are 29-17 ATS (63%).
Take Dallas +6.5 or anything north of +4.
That means the Cowboys moneyline is mispriced too, and if Dallas does win, that gives ample motivation for the Packers to roll the Bears and grab that NFC 6-seed. Chicago's offense has been awful on the road and playing from behind, and its defense has been bad early in games, so that one could get away quickly from the Bears. You can parlay a Packers -10 cover with the Cowboys moneyline at +553 (FanDuel).
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Eagles vs. Giants
Eagles -2.5 (-110)
The Eagles are locked into the NFC 2-seed and have already announced intentions to bench several key starters, including Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley. That means no rushing record, and it looks like a debut start for third-string quarterback Tanner McKee.
That also means a totally neutered line, from what I'd make at least Philadelphia -14 against the Giants if priced whole, so the question is just how far down to take the line in a spot like this.
Philadelphia's offense certainly loses a ton of firepower since it's so top-heavy with Hurts, Barkley, and star receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. But NFL rosters have only 53 players, which means only so many guys can get benched. Philadelphia is as good as it consistently is because of its roster construction and outstanding play on the offensive line and on defense, and many of those guys are still going to have to play. The Eagles also have a big advantage in the coaching ranks.
It's really the backbone and infrastructure of this team that's made it so good over the past half a decade, and this is a bet on an organizational win for Philadelphia against a team that should want to lose to secure a top-four draft pick.
The Eagles have won 14 of their past 17 games against the Giants and have won six of the past seven by an average of 20 points per game. Philadelphia has been so good in the second half, just bleeding games out and running out the clock, and isn't that exactly what this game is? The Eagles have plugged in guys like Kenny Gainwell and seen him run in their system just fine, and look how the team showed up and supported McKee in his debut opportunity last week.
This is also a vibes pick. Wouldn't it just be so Giants to blow the No. 1 pick last week with a shocking win, only to come out and completely lay an egg against a hated division rival? Road teams with a 10-to-30% win rate are 20-42 ATS (32%) in Weeks 17 and 18, failing to cover by 5.6 PPG.
This line is simply too inflated, so play Eagles -2 below the key number, and sprinkle Eagles by 14+ at +450 at FanDuel. After all, Philadelphia has won four of the past seven matchups by at least 24 points.
The Giants are one of four teams tied at 3-13, jostling for position at the top of the draft with prizes like WR/CB Travis Hunter and QBs Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders waiting. With just one game left on the schedule, shouldn't those four teams all lose and secure that valuable top pick and a chance to change the franchise?
History says yes. Teams with at least a 30% win rate facing an opponent with a 10-to-30% win rate in Weeks 17 and 18 are 72-13 straight up since 2010, winning 85% of the time by almost 13 PPG. The Patriots, Titans, Browns and Giants all fall into that bottom-feeder group, and though they're playing mostly resting teams, there's a big difference between resting and trying to lose.
Fade those four teams with a "Just Lose Baby" parlay by parlaying the Bills, Texans, Ravens and Eagles moneylines at +558 (DraftKings). The probability of an 85%-likely event happening 4-of-4 times is still better than 50-50. The Giants just won in this exact spot, but history reminds us that these teams overwhelmingly lose here.
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Chiefs vs. Broncos
Chiefs +10.5 (-112) & +450 ML
This is another spot where books are overpricing in motivation, and this may be the most egregious spot on the schedule. I make this Chiefs -6 in Denver if both teams are playing at full strength, so Broncos -10.5 implies a 16 or 17-point line move, an absurd swing.
The Chiefs are locked into the 1-seed and resting key starters. Patrick Mahomes is obviously a big loss — by the way, how absurd is it that Mahomes is in his prime for a 15-1 back-to-back champion and did not make the Pro Bowl and likely won't even finish top five in MVP voting?! — but Carson Wentz is a top-five backup quarterback and this is exactly why the Chiefs brought him in.
Wentz was an MVP candidate himself not so long ago, and virtually every quarterback under Andy Reid has played better for three decades. Wentz is an obvious downgrade from Mahomes, but Wentz can play, and he's playing for his future.
And like with the Eagles, this is a bet on roster depth and organizational infrastructure. Other than Mahomes, who are the big players missing for the Chiefs? Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, maybe Trent McDuffie or a couple of linemen. Teams can only bench so many guys with 53-man rosters. Kansas City will still have its strengths on defense and on the offensive line, and you can't bench the Chiefs' coaching advantage.
Besides, do you think the back-to-back champs don't want to go 16-1 and knock a division rival out of the playoff hunt? The Chiefs have owned the Broncos, winning 17 of the past 18 meetings, and may prefer to keep it that way. Andy Reid is 73% ATS as an underdog of over a touchdown, mostly in spots like this, and bettors earn a 26% ROI playing Reid as a moneyline underdog.
Don't look now, but the Chiefs are playing their best football of the season, top five on both offense and defense over the past four weeks by DVOA. Over the same stretch, the Broncos defense is fading to around league average against both the run and the pass.
Denver also just played a long overtime game against the Bengals in which its defense was on the field for a whopping 84 plays and 499 yards. This unit will be tired, and it's been below average at home on the season and below average early, while the Chiefs defense has been better on the road.
Kansas City can hang early and push Denver all the way, even in a must-win spot.
Take Chiefs +10.5, but don't stop there.
Bet the Chiefs moneyline at +450. Reid is the second-most profitable active coach behind only Mike Tomlin as a moneyline underdog, and Kansas City has won in this spot several times in recent years, resting or not. A Chiefs-Panthers moneyline parlay playing spoiler pays out at +2222 (FanDuel).
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Dolphins vs. Jets
Under 39 (-110)
We've got plenty of ugly games coming on Sunday, and this may very well be one of them, even though this game could have significant stakes. A Dolphins win combined with a Broncos loss sends Miami back to the playoffs, even after a topsy-turvy season with multiple Tua Tagovailoa injuries.
The Dolphins won without Tagovailoa last week, but it was uglier than the 20-3 final score indicates. Miami's offense had just a 36% Success Rate with Tyler Huntley and only won comfortably because the Browns turned it over six times (four on downs) and went 0-for-3 in the red zone.
Huntley may not be an NFL passer. Miami's offense has been miserable without Tagovailoa this season. The Dolphins offense has scored 10, 3, 12, 15, 10 and 20 points when Tagovailoa hasn't played the full game, an awful 11.7 PPG for what was supposed to be one of the league's best offenses. Miami's offense has just five touchdowns in 64 drives without Tagovailoa, all but one in the fourth quarter, an anemic 1.1 points per drive.
Miami's offense can't take advantage of New York's terrible pass defense without Tagovailoa, but the Jets may not score much either. They trailed Buffalo 40-0 before garbage time last week and might have already quit on the season. Both these teams could be ready for Cancun in what may be a windy, blustery New York winter atmosphere.
You always want to bet the under in Huntley games. The under is 11-2 when Huntley starts, with his games averaging just 31 PPG. Take the under at 39.5 and expect a low-scoring dud.
If we do get a score, don't be surprised if it's a touchdown pass to Davante Adams. Aaron Rodgers may be playing in his final game and is one touchdown pass away from 500. Adams has scored five touchdowns in his past five games and has found the end zone in 10 of his past 17 games with Rodgers.
If the Jets do get a chance to score, expect Rodgers to look hard for Adams in the red zone. Parlaying an Adams touchdown with the under gives a negative correlation boost since there aren't many points to go around, so nibble that at +440 (Caesars) and consider an Adams first touchdown parlayed with the under at +1400 (Caesars) since touchdown number 500 would need to come early in the scoring.
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